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????目前，由于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素的持續(xù)惡化，我們更傾向于看跌石油股。同時(shí)，美聯(lián)儲（Fed）的第二輪量化寬松政策即將結(jié)束；而且，隨著歐盟逐步將外圍國家的財(cái)政失衡社會化，歐元也出現(xiàn)小幅上漲，因此，我們看多美元。有一點(diǎn)是肯定的，那就是，至少在短期內(nèi)，強(qiáng)勢的美元必然會給能源股帶來一些麻煩。

????石油股面臨的五個(gè)直接風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括：

1. 全球增速正在放緩。

????從今年年初開始，我們反復(fù)提到一個(gè)問題，即美國國內(nèi)因失業(yè)導(dǎo)致的滯脹；而最近公布的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)也證實(shí)了這一點(diǎn)。但是，面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)困境的不僅僅是美國——受“歐豬五國”（PIIGS）的拖累，歐盟的發(fā)展也受到了影響，最近公布的采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)（PMI）數(shù)據(jù)便可以證明這一點(diǎn)；而新興市場則由于商品通脹而陷入困境?？傊?，全球增速正在放緩。這一切使得全球股市普遍低迷，尤其是嚴(yán)重依賴石油和天然氣消費(fèi)的能源股。

????We are now leaning more bearish on oil equities, mainly due to worsening macro factors. We've also turned bullish on the U.S. Dollar (USD) as the Fed's second round of quantitative easing is ending and there's little upside to the euro as the EU continues to socialize the periphery's fiscal imbalances at every step. Of course, a strong USD is trouble for energy equities, at least in the immediate-term.

????There are five immediate risks to oil stocks.

1. Global growth is slowing.

????The latest employment data confirms what we've been harping on since the beginning of the year – jobless stagflation in the U.S. But it is not just the U.S. facing economic woes – the European Union is weighed down by the PIIGS, evidenced by the most recent PMI readings, and emerging markets are choking on commodity inflation. In short, global growth is slowing. That is bearish for equities generally, but for energy equities in particular, which rely heavily on oil and gas consumption.

2. 美元看漲。

????原油與美元的負(fù)相關(guān)性從年初至今已高達(dá)90%；可以看出，美元越堅(jiān)挺，石油股面臨的下跌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)便越大。這將使能源股，尤其是石油權(quán)重公司（如含油砂開采公司），面臨更大的下跌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如下圖所示，當(dāng)美元從長期平均數(shù)逐漸接近2.0標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差時(shí)，便會開始大幅回調(diào)，而能源股的相關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)便會加重?，F(xiàn)在，我們即將接近這一臨界點(diǎn)。

2. We are bullish on the U.S. dollar.

????A stronger U.S. dollar lends to greater downside risk for oil equities, given the high inverse correlation between crude oil and the USD, running at -.90 YTD. This leaves energy equities, particularly high oil-weighted companies (like oil sands) exposed to greater downside risk. As the chart below demonstrates, when the U.S. Dollar draws near 2.0 standard deviations from its long-term average, its correction is sharp and the correlation risk to energy stocks is acute. Right now we are nearing that tipping point.

3. 美國國內(nèi)石油供需基本面表現(xiàn)疲軟。

????最近，美國石油供大于求的情況并未出現(xiàn)任何改善的趨勢，交通燃油更是如此。最新公布的庫存報(bào)告顯示，今年美國陣亡將士紀(jì)念日（Memorial Day）之前的原油與車用汽油庫存一反常態(tài)，出現(xiàn)了大幅上升。有鑒于此，今年夏天駕駛季的車用燃油消費(fèi)不容樂觀。

????此外，據(jù)萬事達(dá)（Mastercard）報(bào)道，石油消費(fèi)（需求）比去年同期下降了2%。但石油庫存卻遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過去年的水平和5年平均水平。而且，盡管汽油消費(fèi)比去年同期下降了2%，但由于煉油企業(yè)一味追求高額的利潤，汽油庫存依然逆市增加。然而，煉油企業(yè)的所謂高額利潤只是因?yàn)槊绹鞯每怂_斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)對輕質(zhì)和無硫原油的折扣而出現(xiàn)的“人為”推高的結(jié)果，并不是因?yàn)橄M(fèi)的增加；所以，盡管汽油與石油庫存在不斷增加，但煉油行業(yè)的利潤卻開始下降。因此，目前，我們尤為看跌美國的煉油業(yè)。

3. The supply-demand fundamentals for petroleum in the U.S. are weak.

????We have not seen improving trends in U.S. petroleum supply-demand picture of late, particularly for transportation fuels. Summer driving season may be challenging this year for motor fuel consumption, as the latest inventory report was decidedly bearish – crude oil and motor gasoline stocks built ahead of Memorial Day, rather than the typical drawdown.

????Furthermore, consumption (demand), as reported by Mastercard, continues to run at -2% year-over-year. Oil inventory is well-above last year's level and the 5-year average. Likewise, gasoline inventories are building counter-cyclically as refiners chase stubbornly high cracking margins and consumption runs at -2% year-over-year. And refining margins are being "artificially" held up by WTI's discount to other light, sweet crudes, and not by increased consumption; gasoline and crude inventories are building just as refining margins are declining. We are especially bearish on the U.S. refining industry right now.

4. 對石油看漲過于樂觀。

????WTI原油已經(jīng)跌至每桶100美元。我們認(rèn)為，其中一個(gè)主要原因是，輿論過于看好大宗商品的行情。投資者對石油仍然過于樂觀，買進(jìn)與賣出期貨的價(jià)差超過20年平均數(shù)3個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)偏差（見下圖）。我們認(rèn)為，今年夏天，石油價(jià)格將跌至每桶88美元。

4. Sentiment on oil is too bullish.

????WTI crude oil has slipped below $100/bbl and we think one of the main reasons was that consensus was too long the commodity. We think that investors are still too bullish on oil, with the spread between long and short futures contracts 3 standard deviations above the 20-year mean (see below chart). Our call on oil is that it touches $88.00/bbl this summer.

5. 能源公司的利潤將會在今年的第二、三季度出現(xiàn)縮水。

????能源部門依然面臨成本不斷上漲的壓力，因此，我們認(rèn)為，在2011年接下來的兩個(gè)季度，能源部門的利潤將會下降，尤其是在需求持續(xù)疲軟的情況下，每桶90至100美元的原油價(jià)格無法提供足夠的支持?？傮w上，今年第一季度的利潤已經(jīng)開始下降——而我們預(yù)計(jì)未來下降的速度將會加快。

????目前，買進(jìn)的機(jī)會就擺在人們的眼前。我們認(rèn)為，當(dāng)前，石油股面臨諸多壓力，其中最主要的是疲軟的宏觀環(huán)境，以及美元上漲的趨勢。從長期來看，我們依然看好石油和石油權(quán)重公司的行情，比如含油砂開采公司（SU、CVE、MEG、STP與ATH），但我們認(rèn)為，短期內(nèi)石油股要繼續(xù)上漲，將面臨越來越多的困難。

5. Energy companies will see margin compression in the second and third quarters.

????We continue to see mounting cost pressures across the energy sector that we believe will narrow margins in the next two quarters of 2011, particularly as crude prices in the $90 to $100/bbl range may not provide much support if demand remains weak. By-and-large margins tightened in Q1 – we expect that to accelerate.

????Better buying opportunities lie ahead.We see too many headwinds in the immediate-term for oil equities, the strongest of which being the weak macro environment and our bullish call on the USD. Over the longer duration, we are still bullish on oil and oil-weighted companies, like the oil sands (SU, CVE, MEG, STP and ATH), though we see it increasingly difficult for their shares to move higher in the short-term.