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日本可能成為全球金融危機新的引爆點
 作者: Cyrus Sanati    時間: 2012年02月20日    來源: 財富中文網
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日本的債務水平急劇膨脹,甚至連希臘也相形見絀。華爾街已經注意到了這點,并已開始果斷下注。
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????歐洲主權債務危機剛剛獲得喘息之機,然而,就在此時,華爾街又開始越來越擔心日本可能成為這場全球金融危機的下一個引爆點。當前,日本經濟疲弱,負債相對于經濟產值已經急劇膨脹,水平之高甚至使希臘看上去都像是用錢有度。日本的經濟賬目經過了約20年的累積,似乎將在不遠的將來迎來關鍵時刻。

????華爾街正在買入信用違約掉期(CDS),為日本債務危機爆發的那一天做好準備。紐約和倫敦的交易員們告訴《財富》雜志(Fortune),過去一年日本主權債券CDS大幅震蕩,現為135個基點左右,比日本主權債券收益率高出100個基點。CDS為投資者提供了違約情況下的獲利機會。

????雖然日本的債務炸彈不會明天就爆炸,但當前日本CDS的價格已比一年前高出50%。近年來華爾街對日本債券市場的參與度上升,可能給日本政府帶來更大的壓力,迫使它們努力解決債務困境。不過,華爾街的“債券保安團”(bond vigilantes,為抗議通脹性的貨幣或財政政策而賣出債券的投資者——譯注)可能會逐步將日本債券收益率推至高位,導致日本政府再也無力償付債券,引發歷史上最大規模的主權債務違約潮之一。

????想到素以高效和受到良好教育而著稱的日本人可能已經給自己挖下了這么一個債務泥潭,真是有點不可思議。但當前日本的總負債/GDP比率已高達235%,并還在與日俱增。可資比較的是美國的負債/GDP比率約為98%,處境最糟糕的歐元區成員國希臘和葡萄牙的這一比率也分別只有159%和110%左右。

????日本之所以能不斷擴大舉債,有賴于一些顯而易見的債務保障機制,包括強大的出口產業使得日本成為一個資本凈輸入國,以及忠誠的日本人更傾向于在國內進行投資和消費。而且,和其他發達經濟體不同,很大一部分日本債務的債主都是本國國民,因此它并不需要面對華爾街債券投資者的質問。

????但上周,日本傳出的一些經濟消息卻令投資者大為緊張。這些消息顯示,日本的債務保障體系已竟出現裂縫。消息稱,第四季度日本GDP降幅為遠超預期的2.3%;此外,日本這個出口大國還宣布出現了1980年以來首次全年貿易逆差。日本財務省(the Ministry of Finance)將貿易逆差歸咎于能源價格高企,以及去年大地震導致出口中斷。雖然這兩項因素確實在一定程度上導致了貿易逆差,但主要問題似乎在于日元。

????目前,日元兌美元和歐元的匯率極其堅挺,導致日本出口商品的國際市場價格遠高于從前。隨著出口減少,日本一些大型出口企業可能出現創紀錄的虧損數據。比如,最近松下(Panasonic)已宣稱本財年預計虧損100億美元,索尼(Sony)也表示本財年凈虧損將翻番至28億美元左右,創下公司歷史上最高的年度虧損。日本大企業虧損意味著日本經濟增速放緩,政府財政收入銳減。為了維持運轉,政府只能向繼續國民借更多的錢。

????With the European sovereign debt imbroglio taking a breather for the moment, there is increasing concern on Wall Street that Japan could be the next major flashpoint in the ongoing global financial crisis. It appears that the country's economic reckoning, some 20 years in the making, could finally be coming to a head in the near future as the economy weakens and its debt, relative to its economic output, balloons to a level that makes Greece look like a responsible steward of capital.

????Wall Street is buying protection in the form of credit default swaps to prepare for that day Japan implodes. Trading of swaps on Japanese sovereigns has been highly volatile in the past year -- they are currently being sold at around 135 basis points, 100 basis points above Japan's debt yield, credit traders in New York and London tell Fortune. Credit default swaps provide a way for investors to make money in the event of a default.

????While the Japanese debt bomb isn't expected to go off tomorrow, Japanese CDS is now 50% higher than where it was a year ago. Wall Street involvement in the Japanese debt market has grown in the last few years, which could bring increased pressure on the government to try and solve its debt dilemma. Eventually, though, the Wall Street bond vigilantes could drag Japanese bond yields up to levels that could cripple the government's ability to pay off its debts, setting the stage for one of the most prolific sovereign debt defaults in history.

????It seems crazy to think that Japan, a country known for its efficiency and educated population, could have dug itself into such a dire debt hole. But Japan's total debt compared to its GDP is topping 235% and getting larger by the day. As a point of reference, the U.S. has a debt to GDP ratio of around 98%, while the worst off eurozone members, Greece and Portugal, have ratios of around 159% and 110%, respectively.

????But Japan has been able to continue racking up the debt because of some notable debt defenses. Those defenses include the nation's strong export industry, as it allows Japan to be a net importer of capital, and the nation's loyal population, which tends to invest and spend money at home. And unlike other advanced economies, the bulk of Japan's debt is held by its own citizens, so it hasn't faced the full wrath of Wall Street's bond investors.

????But the nation announced some startling economic news this week that has exposed some chinks in Japan's debt defenses. In addition to announcing a much larger-than-expected 2.3% contraction in the country's GDP in the fourth quarter, Japan, the exporting powerhouse, said it ran its first annual trade deficit since 1980. The Ministry of Finance blamed the trade deficit on the high price of energy and the disruption in exports caused by last year's devastating earthquake. While both events did contribute to the trade deficit, the main issue here seems to be Japan's currency.

????The yen is now extremely strong versus the U.S. dollar and the euro, making Japan's exports appear more expensive than ever before on the international market. Some of the nation's largest export-driven companies are reporting record losses as a result of reduced outflows. For example, Panasonic recently said that it was forecasting a $10 billion loss for the fiscal year, while Sony (SNE) announced that it was doubling its net loss to around $2.8 billion for the fiscal year, the largest loss in the company's history. The losses at Japan's biggest firms translate to reduced economic growth and a big decrease in government revenue. That forces Tokyo to borrow more money from its citizens to stay afloat.







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最佳評論

@關子臨: 自信也許會壓倒聰明,演技的好壞也許會壓倒腦力的強弱,好領導就是循循善誘的人,不獨裁,而有見地,能讓人心悅誠服。    參加討論>>
@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美國學者勞倫斯彼得在對組織中人員晉升的相關現象研究后得出的一個結論:在各種組織中,由于習慣于對在某個等級上稱職的人員進行晉升提拔,因而雇員總是趨向于晉升到其不稱職的地位。    參加討論>>
@Bruce的森林:正念,應該可以解釋為專注當下的事情,而不去想過去這件事是怎么做的,這件事將來會怎樣。一方面,這種理念可以幫助員工排除雜念,把注意力集中在工作本身,減少壓力,提高創造力。另一方面,這不失為提高員工工作效率的好方法。可能后者是各大BOSS們更看重的吧。    參加討論>>


Copyright ? 2012財富出版社有限公司。 版權所有,未經書面許可,任何機構不得全部或部分轉載。
《財富》(中文版)及網站內容的版權屬于時代公司(Time Inc.),并經過時代公司許可由香港中詢有限公司出版和發布。
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