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初創企業盈利掛帥對不對
 作者: Mark Suster    時間: 2012年01月11日    來源: 財富中文網
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初創企業必須在盈利和成長之間作出取舍。如果不把今天的盈利投資到明天的成長上,當然可以推高利潤。同理,如果要維持高速的發展,必然需要把今天的一部分利潤投資到擴大再生產,謀求明天的發展壯大。
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細節

????我和很多第一次創業的人都進行過這樣的談話。他們已融資二、三百萬美元,推出的一款產品已有了相當的市場影響力,年化營業收入在100萬美元左右。

????處在這樣的階段,作為創始人,你會覺得無限接近盈利。很多人也許會想:“今年我要大力控制成本,力爭實現盈利。我不想虧欠投資者。”我的回答往往是:“沒問題。但你的最終目標是什么?你計劃在未來一到兩年出售公司嗎?還是說你打算保持較小的規模,但維持不錯的利潤?你設想過將來吸引風險投資、打造一家發展速度更快的公司嗎?”

????由于我所在的圈子,我常常會遇到很多這樣的人,他們的最終目的是希望打造一家大公司,因此希望最終能吸引到風險投資,“做大做強”。但他們希望通過舉債實現這個目標。這個階段的投資者更關心增長,而不是盈利,因此要小心別弄巧成拙。我了解創業者對掌控感的渴望,盈利能給予你一切盡在掌握之中的感覺。但這不能以犧牲著眼于增長的投資為代價。

????如果你的公司三年前募集了300萬美元的資金,如今已實現盈利,營業收入達到150萬美元,風投家的反應可能是“那又怎樣?”這種不以為然的態度或許會讓人難以接受,但事實就是這樣。

????如果公司客戶增長迅速,只是沒有致力于營收,則是另外一回事了。如果這三年時間你是在完善一些高度細分的技術知識產權,可能同樣無可厚非。但如果你放慢腳步只是為了證明你有能力盈利,那么未來再要進行融資時,可能就要另尋門路了。

理解利潤

????我看損益表時,首先會看的是營業收入一欄。對于所有想了解一家公司業務狀況的人們來說,營業收入有沒有增長很重要。

????每次記者們向我問起上市公司股票時,我也總是提到這一點。兩家 “盈利”(利潤)都是1億美元的公司可能有著截然不同的未來。一家公司營業收入的年增幅可能達到50%,而另一家只有5%。假定它們的凈利潤率(利潤/營收)完全一樣,那么到年底時,前一家公司的狀況就會好得多。因此,雖然最簡單的股票估值指標是市盈率,但我們也需要參照市盈率相對盈利增長比率(PEG)等其他指標。

投資者看重的是增長

????一家公司的價值就是將未來所有現金流預期總額按貼現率折算的當前現值(正如你所知,明年的1美元沒有今天的1美元值錢)。高增長的公司更有可能在未來產生更高的利潤總額。

????因此,評估一家公司的時候,首先要看“增長”。光看兩家公司的盈利數據無法了解它們的前景孰優孰劣。

????如果(是像風投公司一樣)考察的是更早期的公司(就像風投一樣),那么客戶增長可能比營收增長還要重要。

營收本質很重要

????評估已經開始產生營業收入的公司時,我希望能更詳細地了解營收一欄。營收由什么構成?只有一項產品,還是多項產品?20%的客戶貢獻了80%的營收,還是三大客戶貢獻了80%的營收?

????這就是所謂的“營收集中度”,營收集中度越高,未來收入下降的風險就越大。

????我還希望弄清其他一些事情,比如產品的定價機制,競爭對手的定價策略,你未來的定價預期等等。隨著競爭加劇,價格被迫下降,早期的高成長往往不得不放慢。

The Details

????I have had this discussion with many a first-time entrepreneur. They have have raised $2-3 million, built a product that has some amount of market traction and got to annualized revenues of around $1 million.

????At this level, as a founder you feel SO CLOSE to profitability that many say, "I'm going to keep my costs really low this year to try and hit profitability. I don't want to be beholden to investors." My response is often, "That's fine. What's your objective? Are you looking to potentially sell the company in the next year or two? Do you plan to run this as a smaller business but maintain healthy profits? Do you imagine eventually raising VC and trying to build a faster growing company?"

????Because of the circles I run in I tend to meet many people who eventually do want to build large companies and therefore do want to eventually raise VC and "go big." But they want to do it with leverage. Investors at this stage care way more about growth than profits so be careful not to shoot yourself in the foot. I certainly understand the desire to be in control, which is what you are when you earn a profit. Just be careful that it doesn't come at the expense of investments in growth.

????The likely response of a VC to your company that raised $3 million and now is profitably doing $1.5 million in revenue three years later is, "So effing what?" Harsh, but real.

????If you had huge customer growth but just didn't focus on revenue that's a different story. If you spent the 3 years perfecting some hugely differentiated technology IP that may also be different. But if you simply went more slowly to show you could earn a profit you may need to look for alternative funding sources to fuel your future growth.

Understanding profits

????When I look at an income statement, I start by focusing on the revenue line. One thing that should matter to all people trying to understand the performance of a company is whether it has revenue growth.

????I always remind this to journalists who ask me about public stocks. If you have two companies each with $100 million in "earnings" (profits) they might have vastly different prospects for the future. One company might be growing its revenue at 50% per year and the other might be growing at 5% per year. And assuming they both had the same net profit margins (profit / revenue) then the former company would be much better off at the end of the year. So while the simplest way that people often evaluate stocks is by P/E ratios (price-to-earnings), one also needs to look at other metrics such as the PEG (price-to-earnings-growth).

Investors value growth

????The value of a company is the expected value of all future cashflows discounted back to today's dollar (because as you know a next year is worth less than a dollar today) and a company that is growing more quickly is more likely to yield better overall profits in the future.

????So for a start when you want to evaluate companies you want to evaluate "growth." Looking a earnings alone across two companies won't tell you the picture of the different prospects.

????And when you're looking at even earlier-stage companies (as VCs do) you might be even more focused on customer growth than revenue growth.

The nature of your revenue matters

????When I do evaluate companies that already have revenue, I actually want to understand the revenue line in more detail. What makes up revenue? Is it one product line or many? Do 20% of the customers make 80% of the revenue or do the top 3 customers represent 80% of the revenue.

????This is called "revenue concentration" and the more concentrated your revenue the higher the risk that your revenue could decline in the future.

????I also try to understand things like how you're pricing your product, how your competitors price and what your pricing expectations will be in the future. Fast early growth in a market is often eroded when competition gets fierce and prices are forced down due to competition.







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最佳評論

@關子臨: 自信也許會壓倒聰明,演技的好壞也許會壓倒腦力的強弱,好領導就是循循善誘的人,不獨裁,而有見地,能讓人心悅誠服。    參加討論>>
@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美國學者勞倫斯彼得在對組織中人員晉升的相關現象研究后得出的一個結論:在各種組織中,由于習慣于對在某個等級上稱職的人員進行晉升提拔,因而雇員總是趨向于晉升到其不稱職的地位。    參加討論>>
@Bruce的森林:正念,應該可以解釋為專注當下的事情,而不去想過去這件事是怎么做的,這件事將來會怎樣。一方面,這種理念可以幫助員工排除雜念,把注意力集中在工作本身,減少壓力,提高創造力。另一方面,這不失為提高員工工作效率的好方法。可能后者是各大BOSS們更看重的吧。    參加討論>>


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