標(biāo)普500目標(biāo)點(diǎn)位1,550點(diǎn)
????歷史告訴我們，華爾街策略師們就是一群樂觀主義的人。2011年也不例外：2010年12月彭博社（Bloomberg）的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，市場(chǎng)平均預(yù)計(jì)2011年底標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)將達(dá)到1,370點(diǎn)，對(duì)應(yīng)漲幅為9%。但德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的賓基?查德哈認(rèn)為，這樣的預(yù)測(cè)仍過于保守。他相信標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)將漲至1,550點(diǎn)，漲幅23%。不幸的是，2011年標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)在上漲之路上先后遭遇了歐元危機(jī)、美國債務(wù)上限之爭(zhēng)等多只攔路虎。2011年最后一個(gè)交易日，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)收于1,257.60點(diǎn)。
????看看查德哈最新的2012年展望報(bào)告，2011年預(yù)測(cè)似乎失敗并未讓他氣餒。他在報(bào)告中寫道，“我們相信公司基本面非常健康，估值極低，供需面強(qiáng)勁，這些因素最終將超越對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的種種擔(dān)憂”。查德哈預(yù)計(jì)2012年底標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的點(diǎn)位是1,500點(diǎn)，漲幅為20%。 |
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S&P 500 at 1,550
????History shows Wall Street's strategists to be an optimistic lot. This year was no exception: on average, prognosticators expected the S&P 500 to reach 1,370 by the end of 2011, according to a Bloomberg survey conducted last December. That represented a gain of 9%. But Binky Chadha of Deutsche Bank believed even those estimates were tame. He proclaimed that the S&P 500 would skyrocket to 1,550, a gain of 23%. Unfortunately, a few things got in the way of the S&P's rise, including the euro crisis and the U.S. debt ceiling fight. Today the index sits at 1,250.
????Recent misfortunes haven't discouraged Chadha, according to his 2012 outlook. "We see very healthy corporate fundamentals, extremely cheap valuations and a strong demand-supply balance eventually winning out against the concerns about the risks," he wrote. Chadha's prediction for the S&P 500 at year-end 2012: 1,500, up about 20%. |
