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????本周二，加拿大投資公司Canaccord Genuity分析師T?邁克爾?沃克利向客戶發布報告顯示，目前的形勢對蘋果（Apple）投資者可謂喜憂參半。

????憂的是沃克利預計亞馬遜（Amazon）Kindle Fire將大幅削弱iPad在全球平板電腦市場的主導地位，后者市場份額將從第三季度的74%急劇下滑至第四季度的53.2%。【點擊此處查看具體報道。不過，蘋果高管上周向摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）表示，這并非完全是壞消息，因為他們預計亞馬遜199美元平板電腦完全是虧本銷售，會進一步激發消費者對iPad的熱情，而后者為蘋果帶來的利潤非常豐厚。】

????喜的是iPhone在與谷歌（Google）Android的競爭中占據了上風，沃克利認為iPhone“市場份額有望強勁增長”。由于增勢迅猛，他已經將iPhone第四季度的出貨量從2,900萬部上調至了3,050萬部。

????iPhone銷量真可謂瘋狂增長，要知道，在截至9月份的第三季度，蘋果僅售出1,710萬部iPhone。

????上面兩幅餅圖表分別顯示了第三季度全球智能手機市場份額分布，以及沃克利對四季度的預測。（我們在下面復制了沃克利的數據。）蘋果市場份額增長了6個百分點（環比激增42%），值得注意的是，蘋果的部分競爭對手市場份額環比下滑幅度卻高達兩位數，其中包括：

????宏達電（HTC）：下滑4.3%（環比下滑39%）

????諾基亞（Nokia）：下滑2.4%（環比下滑17%）

????索尼愛立信（Sony Ericsson）：下滑0.6%（環比下滑11%）

????沃克利預測，三星（Samsung）第四季度智能手機銷量將基本保持平穩，預計出貨量為3,450萬部，不過市場份額將下滑1.3%。

????具體數據見下圖：

????A note to clients issued Tuesday by Canaccord Genuity's T. Michael Walkley had good news and bad news for Apple (AAPL) investors.

????The bad news, which we reported here, was that he expects sales of Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle Fire to cut sharply into the iPad's dominance of the worldwide market for tablet computers, reducing its unit share from 74% in calendar Q3 to 53.2% in Q4. (This is not such bad news, Apple execs told J.P. Morgan last week, because they expect the $199 tablet that Amazon sells at a loss to whet consumer appetites for the iPad, which Apple sells at a tidy profit.)

????The good news in Walkley's note is that he is seeing "strong global share gains" for the iPhone versus Google's (GOOG) Android this quarter -- strong enough for him to increase his iPhone unit sales estimate for Q4 from 29 million to 30.5 million.

????The change is even more dramatic when you consider that Apple sold only 17.1 million iPhones in the quarter that ended in September.

????The pie charts above show what the smartphone market looked like in Q3 and what Walkley expects it to look like at the end of December. (We've copied his data below the fold.) In addition to Apple's 6 point (42%) increase in market share, note the double-digit share drops among its competitors, including:

????HTC, down 4.3 points (39%)

????Nokia (NOK), down 2.4 points (17%)

????Sony Ericsson (SNE), down 0.6 points (11%)

????Samsung is basically holding steady this quarter, according to Walkley's forecast, shipping an estimated 34.5 million smartphones but losing 1.3% of its market share.

????See the spreadsheet below.