腦力風暴
????上個月在阿斯彭召開的年度《財富》科技頭腦風暴大會（Fortune Brainstorm Tech conference）上，４００多位企業家和高官濟濟一堂，討論科技給我們的生活、通訊和娛樂消費方式帶來的改變。在這種場合下，一定會聽到很多人談及職業社交網站LinkedIn、Facebook、Twitter和Spotify等公司的繁榮——Spotify是一家剛剛登錄美國的在線音樂服務公司。但是這種繁榮是否已經快到了不合理的范疇？尤其是考慮到這些公司的估值。不過看起來人們對這個問題的一般看法是：“那得看是誰了?！备ヌm克?夸特隆是一名經驗老道的科技銀行家，他并不認為科技界將面臨大范圍的泡沫。不過有些私人公司掙到了太多的錢，這讓他隱隱感到不安。就連一向以心直口快聞名的前財政部長拉里?薩默斯在這個問題上也表示出了模楞兩可的態度。他指出，與工業股票相比，科技公司的市值還是很低的。而且科技公司的潛在商機非常大，因為全世界差不多有20億互聯網用戶和20億移動電話用戶。薩默森先是問道：“回頭看看歷史，誰能拍著胸脯說現在肯定沒有泡沫？”不過他補充道：“但那些表示肯定有泡沫的人，他們肯定沒有注意到我剛才說的那幾點事實?！蹦驹谀囊贿叄吭谀聸Q定之前，不妨先回顧一下我們對本次科技頭腦風暴大會的報道。
????——斯特凡妮?梅赫塔 |
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Brain Power
????When you assemble more than 400 executives and entrepreneurs to discuss how technology is changing the way we work, communicate, and consume entertainment -- as Fortune did for its annual Brainstorm Tech conference in Aspen last month -- you're sure to hear a lot of exuberance for companies such as LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter, and Spotify, the music service that just launched in the U.S. But is that exuberance verging on irrational, especially where valuations are concerned? The consensus seems to be: "It depends." Frank Quattrone, the veteran tech banker, demurs on the question of a broader bubble but says he frets about the premiums some private companies are commanding. Even Larry Summers, the usually blunt former U.S. Treasury Secretary, is equivocal on the matter. He notes that the value of tech companies relative to industrials is quite low. Yet the potential market opportunity for tech -- some 2 billion Internet users and 2 billion mobile phones worldwide -- is huge. "Who can look at history and be confident that things aren't a bubble?" he asks. But, he adds, "those who are confident that it is a bubble don't seem to me to have looked at some of the kinds of facts that I just cited." What side are you on? Check out our coverage of Brainstorm Tech before you make up your mind.
????--Stephanie N. Mehta |
