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美國商界缺席債務上限之爭
 作者: Tory Newmyer    時間: 2011年08月01日    來源: 財富中文網
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美國商界游說團在最后關頭也加入了這場有關債務上限的辯論,盡管債務違約與美國商界利益攸關,但他們這次除了嗚咽失聲之外,別無行動。
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????如果說債務違約的幽靈已使美國企業界膽戰心驚,那么僅憑過去幾周他們在華盛頓的雇傭軍的所作所為上,卻很難看出這一點。

????規模龐大的商界游說團紛紛致信國會,敦促其有所作為,但在黨派僵局就債務上限危機愈演愈烈之時,他們卻大都選擇了袖手旁觀。鑒于五天之后(8月2日——譯注)財政部就會宣布無錢支付政府賬單,這一情況似乎有望得到改觀。

????上周四,眾議院計劃對議長約翰?博納(共和黨,俄亥俄州)提高債務上限的提案進行投票表決,重創之下的行業協會終于站出身來,敦促各大企業聯合支持這一提案。上周三晚,包括美國商會(U.S. Chamber of Commerce)、美國全國制造商協會(National Association of Manufacturers)、美國商業圓桌會議(Business Roundtable)和美國國家家庭住宅建筑協會(National Association of Home Builders)在內的商界代表聯合簽署了致國會議員的一封信,表示支持提高債限的提案。商界代表的官員這次表示,他們將協調一致、積極游說,大力促使膽戰心驚的眾議院共和黨會議通過這一提案。

????但考慮到利害得失,華盛頓各界商業人士一致認為債務違約將導致災難性后果——商界游說團之前并未采取有力行動,這甚至令不少K街(美國首都華盛頓特區的一個街區,聚集著大量的智庫和游說團體——譯注)游說行家一籌莫展。其中一位表示:“從他們(商界游說團)傳達的訊息和游說行動來看,這次真是一反常態的安靜。這是一種極簡主義方式,而在我的預期中,商界的呼聲應該更加響亮。”

????商界代表們立刻反駁了這一說法。以商會為例,它傾注了數月時間組織游說團拜訪那些持懷疑態度的國會議員,向他們闡明違約的嚴重性。美國全國制造商協會稅務及國內經濟政策副主席多羅茜?科爾曼則稱,他們“已就該問題探討了近一年的時間”。然而,與他們動輒為教會事業捐助數千萬的善款相比,他們在這方面的努力可謂微乎其微。

債務違約,將信將疑

????商界遲遲未能發起協調一致的游說行動以拉響警報,背后有諸多原因。

????在很大程度上,他們認為議會能夠自行找到解決辦法,在債務違約風險真正逼近之前延長聯邦政府的借款授權。德克薩斯州前民主黨眾議員肯?本森正在為證券行業和金融市場協會(Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association)進行游說工作,他表示該協會上周才開始請公司會員關注債務上限違約問題。他說:“難以想象如果真的違約會是怎樣,我們的公司會員才剛剛意識到這一點——如果再不采取行動,違約或將成為現實。”

????無獨有偶,三年前也發生過類似情況。當時,眾議院未能通過華爾街救市方案,這一結果令之前志在必得的商界游說團一片嘩然,一位銀行業的說客甚至將這一失利稱之為一場“無聚首、超驅動的閃電戰”。

????他說:“我們都期待通過這一方案,當結果不如人意時,我們挺身而出。”以美國商會、美國全國制造商協會、金融服務業圓桌會議(Financial Services Roundtable)和美國商業圓桌會議為代表的公司首腦全都參與到行動中來,聯合布什政府及國會領袖,通過對搖擺不定的國會議員施加壓力,以爭取更多的贊成票。美國商業圓桌會議的喬安娜?施耐德稱:“行動力度之大異乎尋常。我們每天都與財政部部長保爾森會談,我們的公司首腦每天都與他進行電話會議,我們還大力動員所有公司首腦、特別是擁有大規模就業中心的公司首腦進行電話游說。”

????主要商會的說客們稱,這一次,他們到目前為止之所以仍然袖手旁觀事出有因。幾位說客表示,直至本周,并未出臺任何具體可信的提案發動他們助力債限之爭。照理,缺乏明確的理發提案并不會影響商界提供資金支持,比如發起宣傳活動,向投票人闡明利害關系等。此類活動并不鮮見。

????但問題是,使大財團們緘默不言的最大動因是什么:恐懼最終不利的債限方案會通過立法。只要政府依然將增稅作為減赤手段,那么自身利益岌岌可危的行業仍希望保留反對的權利。

????實際上,問題并不在于商界未就債限問題進行積極游說。據陽光基金會(Sunlight Foundation)就信息披露發布的一則評論稱,從四月至六月,記錄在案的有140多個團體就債限問題開展過游說活動。其中絕大多數都集中于保住有限的稅收優惠,甚或尋求新的減稅舉措。據記錄,藍十字-藍盾(Blue Cross Blue Shield)、甲骨文(Oracle)(ORCL)、埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)(XOM)、美國輝瑞(Pfizer)(PFE)、德文能源(Devon Energy)(DVN)、諾斯洛普?格魯門(Northrop Grumman)(NOC)以及沃爾瑪(Wal-Mart)(WMT)等公司至少都跟蹤過債限談判的進展。毫無疑問,有些公司的危機感更強。鑒于奧巴馬總統不止一次指責共和黨為了保護公務航空公司的減稅政策而犧牲老年人和中等收入者的利益,美國國家公務航空協會(National Business Aviation Association)就曾發起行動,捍衛這一政策規定,稱航空業堪稱就業大戶。

????陽光基金會的比爾?阿利森表示:“只要不能利益共享,他們就會有所行動。”

????或者正如共和黨形容K街那些權力玩家的投資那樣:“他們絕對沒有真正付出過努力,沒有花過一分一厘。因為他們怯懦膽小。他們之所以袖手旁觀完全是因為擔心槍打出頭鳥。”

????債限方案可能不會考慮對權益項目和稅法進行任何直接修改,如今情勢已經明朗,是大財團們的介入之時。沒有什么比即將到來的經濟大決戰更能吸引他們的關注了。但好了傷疤忘了痛,大財團的說客們會以更好地服務于國家經濟經濟大局知名故伎重演,極力要求享受特殊待遇。到時值得回味的是:當初債務危機危及國家經濟命脈之時,他們為何未能看清其特殊利益所在。

????If the specter of a default has spooked corporate America, you wouldn't know it by watching their hired guns in Washington over the last several weeks.

????Aside from sending a handful of letters urging Congress to act, the big business lobby has mostly hugged the sidelines as the partisan standoff over the debt limit crisis intensified. That appears poised to change, now that there are only five days to go until the Treasury Department says it will run out of money to pay all the federal government's bills.

????With Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) set to put his plan for a debt ceiling hike to a vote in the House today, the heaviest-hitting trade associations are finally piping up and urging their member companies to rally behind the proposal. On Wednesday evening, a broad collective of those groups -- including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers, the Business Roundtable, and the National Association of Home Builders -- cosigned a letter to Members of Congress endorsing the plan. And officials with those groups said this time, they will be following up with an aggressive, coordinated lobbying effort to try to muscle the package through a jumpy House Republican conference.

????But considering the stakes -- business types in Washington agree a default would be calamitous -- the failure of the business lobby to engage more forcefully earlier has even some veteran K Street hands scratching their heads. "If you look at the totality of the communications and the lobbying efforts, this has been uncharacteristically quiet," says one. "It's been a minimalist approach, and I'd have expected the business community to be much more vocal."

????Representatives of the groups are quick to dispel that point. The Chamber, for example, has spent months organizing lobbying visits to skeptical lawmakers to explain the gravity of the threat. And NAM has been "talking about this issue for almost a year," says Dorothy Coleman, the group's vice president of tax and domestic economic policy. But the commitment barely registers against the eight-figure sums the groups regularly dole out for more parochial causes.

Doubting a default

????There have been at least a few factors at work keeping big business groups from mounting a concerted campaign to sound the alarm.

????For the most part, they've rested on the assumption that Congress would figure out on its own how to extend the federal government's borrowing authority without seriously flirting with default. Ken Bentsen, a former Democratic Congressman from Texas now lobbying for the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, said his group only started asking member companies to focus on the issue last week. "It's unthinkable you'd really default, and our members are just coming to grips with the fact that if we don't act, this could really happen," he says.

????There was a similar dynamic three years ago, when the stunning failure in the House of the first attempt to pass the Wall Street bailout sent a relatively complacent business lobby into what one banking lobbyist called a "no-huddle hyper-drive blitzkrieg."

????"We all expected that to pass, too, and when it didn't, we lit it up," this lobbyist said. The Chamber, NAM, the Financial Services Roundtable, and the BRT, which represents top CEOs, all got in on the act, launching a cooperative push with the Bush administration and Congressional leaders to round up votes, in part by generating constituent pressure on wobbly lawmakers. "The effort was extraordinary," says Joanna Schneider, of the BRT. "We talked to Secretary Paulson every day, we had CEO conference calls with the Secretary every day, and we made a massive effort for all the CEOs, particularly where they had large employment centers, to make calls."

????Lobbyists for the major trade groups point to other reasons they've taken a largely hands-off approach so far. Several noted that until this week, there was no specific, credible proposal for them to help push. Presumably, the lack of legislative text wouldn't prevent the groups from bankrolling, say, a major advertising campaign to educate voters about the stakes. Those types of campaigns are hardly uncommon.

????But the argument points to what has been perhaps the most powerful motivator in keeping big business mum: fear of what could end up in whatever package makes it into law. As long as tax hikes remained on the table as a means of trimming the deficit, industries that could see their bottom lines bitten wanted to reserve the right to object.

????Indeed, it's not that there's been no active lobbying on the debt ceiling by corporate interests. From April through June, more than 140 outfits reported lobbying work on the issue, according to a review of disclosure reports by the Sunlight Foundation. The vast majority appears to have engaged to protect narrow tax privileges, or even seek new breaks. Blue Cross Blue Shield, Oracle (ORCL), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Pfizer (PFE), Devon Energy (DVN), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and Wal-Mart (WMT) all reported at least monitoring the talks. Some no doubt felt more threatened than others. With President Obama making a refrain of the charge that Republicans want to protect a tax break for corporate jet owners at the expense of seniors and middle-income earners, the National Business Aviation Association launched an effort to defend the provision as a job-creator.

????"They're all for shared sacrifice as long as they're not the ones sharing," says Bill Allison of the Sunlight Foundation.

????Or, as one Republican lobbyist describes the investment by K Street's power-players: "They couldn't have done less if they tried, spent zero dollars and no cents. And it's because they're gutless. They've not done anything because they don't want to pop their heads above ground and get their heads taken off."

????With any direct changes to entitlement programs and the tax code likely to be left out of the package, the coast is now clear for the big business groups to jump in. And there's nothing like an impending economic Armageddon to marshal their focus. But when this scare subsides, and the big business lobbies go back to pressing for specialized treatment under the guise it serves a greater economic good, it will be worth remembering where these special interests stood when that cause was imperiled.




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@關子臨: 自信也許會壓倒聰明,演技的好壞也許會壓倒腦力的強弱,好領導就是循循善誘的人,不獨裁,而有見地,能讓人心悅誠服。    參加討論>>
@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美國學者勞倫斯彼得在對組織中人員晉升的相關現象研究后得出的一個結論:在各種組織中,由于習慣于對在某個等級上稱職的人員進行晉升提拔,因而雇員總是趨向于晉升到其不稱職的地位。    參加討論>>
@Bruce的森林:正念,應該可以解釋為專注當下的事情,而不去想過去這件事是怎么做的,這件事將來會怎樣。一方面,這種理念可以幫助員工排除雜念,把注意力集中在工作本身,減少壓力,提高創造力。另一方面,這不失為提高員工工作效率的好方法。可能后者是各大BOSS們更看重的吧。    參加討論>>


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