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新聞集團遭重創,股票買入正逢時?
 作者: Duff McDonald    時間: 2011年07月25日    來源: 財富中文網
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如果魯伯特?默多克的媒體帝國能夠考慮的所有戰略方案都已經明朗,投資者或許能靠其股票大賺一筆。
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????近期,新聞集團(News Corp.)電話竊聽丑聞所引發的媒體大戰還在繼續上演。這些記者們終于也感受一下焦頭爛額的滋味,真是因果報應。魯伯特?默多克和他的兒子詹姆斯?默多克面對英國議會的質詢,辯稱“我們沒有犯罪,我們只是毫無頭緒”,這一場景必定會成為今年最具“娛樂性”的一幕。現在我們知道,魯伯特或許只是一個糊涂的糟老頭子,他兒子則是盡其所能支吾其詞,而且顯然整個事件已經讓他的妻子鄧文迪變得神經緊張。

????另外,我們還了解到,新聞集團死氣沉沉、逆來順受的董事會也大為震驚,已經處于警備狀態,緊張程度甚至并不亞于魯伯特的妻子。據稱,他們正在研究各種對策,例如1.)放棄該公司在英國的所有報紙業務(機率:還算不錯);2.)采用董事長和首席執行官分任制,把魯伯特趕下首席執行官的位子,而由總裁蔡斯?凱里接任(機率:不會太大);3.) 50億美元的股票回購計劃(機率:似乎為100%)。但愿他們不會繼續任由默多克自以為是地進行任何沖減市值的收購。例如他對道瓊斯公司(Dow Jones)和其旗艦報紙《華爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal)的收購。

????華爾街的分析師們在對新聞集團這樣的大公司進行估值時,常采用分類加總估值法(sum-of-the-parts valuation)。這些大公司同時經營多種業務,擁有多元化的資產,分類加總法可以幫助他們(以及他們的客戶)更好地評估出這些資產的整體價格。但是,這些通常只是停留在想法上而已,尤其是在遇到像默多克這種獨裁的首席執行官時,則更是如此——只要一息尚存,他就會拼命收集更多的“玩具”。六個月前若有人問他是否有意拆分他的傳媒王國,肯定會遭到他的侮辱。即使到了今天,他仍可能會一笑置之,但是董事會的其他成員卻再也笑不出來了。他們已經將各種可能的方案擺上了臺面。

????上周一,野村證券研究部(Nomura Equity Research)的分析師邁克爾?內桑森對新聞集團進行了一番解體分析,頗為有趣。分析中,邁克爾設想把公司分為三大塊:優質資產、劣勢資產和有毒資產。分析表明,拆分后各部分的價值竟然要高于之前的整體價值。

????內桑森所謂的“優質資產”(Good NWS)包括新聞集團旗下的有線電視絡、電視資產、英國天空廣播公司(BskyB)的股權以及意大利天空衛視(Sky Italia)的業務。他估計,2012年“優質資產”的收入將達173億美元,接近公司全部收入的一半。即使將該公司當前的所有負債(當然包括所有現金)全部算在“優質資產”身上,它仍將實現30%的年收益增長率,表現依然不俗。按可比單一業務有線網絡公司14倍的市盈率計算,內桑森認為單就 “優質資產”而言,新聞集團的目標價為每股14.54美元。上周二早晨,新聞集團的股價收于16.90美元。

????接著內桑森分析了包括所有報紙資產在內的“有毒資產”(Toxic NWS),并將其全部剝離出來。盡管這些資產在2012年預期收入(扣除息稅前)中的比重也幾乎占到9%,共計62億美元,但內桑森卻認為這部分資產的價值為零。很長時間以來,投資界都認為,持有報紙資產不過是默多克為了滿足自己的虛榮心,并且實現把持新聞集團投票權的目的而做出的決定,因此這部分股票價值也得相應地打上折扣。當然,如果將這部分有毒資產出售,公司仍可能賺錢,但是在當前的股權結構下,在投資者看來,這些報紙一文不值,甚至還會更糟。

????最后,我們來看一下“劣質資產”(Bad NWS)。在內桑森的分類中 ,這部分資產包括影視娛樂公司、雜志和圖書出版業務。盡管包括聯合制作業務在內的影視娛樂資產確實有一定的價值,但是考慮到DVD行業目前的負增長趨勢,內桑森不得不保守地將其列入 “劣質資產”中。綜合計算,預計這部分業務在2012年將帶來100億美元的收入,每股收益達0.39美元。

????而這些數字的有趣之處在于:當我們用當前股價16.90美元減去內桑森對所謂“優勢資產”的估值14.54美元時, 得出的結果是2.46美元,也就是“劣勢資產”的價值——請記住,有毒資產的價值為零。再除以2012年的預期每股收益0.39美元,那么,你只需支付相當于收益值6.3倍的價格,便可得到這筆“劣勢資產”(本周早些時候,該公司股價一度跌至15.64美元,當時為這部分資產所支付的價格僅為收益的2.8倍)。當時,內桑森寫道:“雖然還沒到完全免費的份上,但的確已經相當便宜了。”這一論點目前仍然成立。如果董事會果真能履行其職能,迫使默多克認真考慮這些戰略方案,那么這些股票可能會帶來豐厚的收益。

????內桑森認為,目前最大的風險在于,由于公司放棄了收購英國天空廣播公司其他股權的計劃,致使這位傳媒大亨手握大把資金可供操作,因此,他很有可能進行其他收購活動,,比如他對道瓊斯或社交網站公司MySpace的收購,進而造成公司價值嚴重縮水。如果分析師的報告擔憂某一公司的首席執行官手中的可支配資金過多,這說明該公司存在嚴重的問題。

????內桑森的擔心并非空穴來風:盡管公司向竊聽受害者支付了大筆封口費,并且拿出50億美元進行股票回購,但根據預測,截至2012年底,新聞集團可用的現金總額仍將達到94億美元之多。所以這是一場豪賭:如果公司董事會能夠成功阻止默多克利用這筆資金做出任何愚蠢舉動,同時迫使他從股東利益出發,考慮將公司分拆,那么現在正是買入該公司股票的最佳時機。

????從默多克在上周二聽證會上的表現來看,要完成這兩項任務,并非難事。

????(翻譯 俞華)

????The media frenzy over the News Corp. phone-hacking scandal has been a thing to behold. There's nothing like a good comeuppance to get journalists all hot and bothered, and the sight of Rupert and James Murdoch taking the "we're not criminals, we're just clueless" defense in front of Parliament will surely go down as one of the year's most entertaining spectacles. We now know that Rupert just might be a doddering old fool, that his son can prevaricate with the best of them, and that Wendi Deng has clearly been put on edge by the whole experience.

????What we also know is that a somnolent and acquiescent board has been shocked into a state of alertness that might even rival that of Rupert's wife. They're said to be considering a whole range of options. One: ditching the company's entire UK Newspaper business (odds: not too bad). Two: separating the roles of chairman and CEO, kicking Rupert out of the chief executive's chair and replacing him with president Chase Carey (odds: not too good). Three: a $5 billion stock repurchase effort (odds: seemingly 100%). What they're hopefully not going to do is allow Rupert to make any more ego-driven but dilutive acquisitions, such as that of Dow Jones and its flagship the Wall Street Journal.

????Wall Street analysts like to do something called a sum-of-the-parts valuation when it comes to big conglomerates like News Corp. (NWS).It helps them (and their clients) to better understand how one can even consider putting a price on the totality of such a disparate and diverse collection of assets. Normally, though, these are just thought exercises—all the more so when you have a dictatorial chief executive like Rupert who is hell-bent on collecting as many toys as he can before he croaks. Ask him six months ago if he planned to break up News Corp., and he would have laughed in your face. Ask him today, and while he may still laugh, the board of News Corp. won't be laughing with him. All options seem to be on the table.

????Michael Nathanson, an analyst at Nomura Equity Research, ran an interesting breakup analysis of News Corp on Monday. In it, he envisioned splitting the company into three separate parts: Good News Corp, Bad News Corp, and Toxic News Corp. In his analysis, the parts look to be worth more than the sum.

????Nathanson's Good NWS includes the company's cable networks, its television properties, its BSkyB stake, and its Sky Italia business. He estimates that Good NWS would have $17.3 billion in fiscal 2012 revenues, just under half that of the combined company. Even after saddling Good NWS with all of News Corp's current debt (albeit all its cash as well), he sees impressive earnings growth of 30% annually. Putting a 14x multiple on those earnings that's comparable to other pure play cable assets, he gets to $14.54 per share of Good NWS alone. NWS shares were trading at $16.90 as of Thursday morning.

????Nathanson then takes Toxic NWS—all of its newspaper assets—and throws them overboard, despite their accounting for just under 9% of estimated 2012 earnings before interest and taxes. That's a combined $6.2 billion in 2012 revenues onto which he puts a value of zero. The investment community has long considered the newspaper holdings nothing more than a result of Rupert's vanity and chokehold on News Corp. votes, and has discounted the shares accordingly. Sure, the company may make money if it sells them, but under current ownership, they're worthless to investors, if not worse.

????Finally, we come to Bad NWS. Into this pile Nathanson throws filmed entertainment, magazines, and book publishing. While filmed entertainment does have value, including syndication deals, negative DVD trends have Nathanson choosing to be conservative and to include them in the less attractive half of Good/Bad NWS. Combined, these businesses would account for an estimated $10 billion in 2012 revenue and earnings per share of $0.39.

????Here's where the numbers get really interesting. If you subtract his Good NWS valuation of $14.54 from today's share price of $16.90, you're left with $2.46 per share that is attributable to Bad NWS. (Remember, Toxic NWS is worth nothing.) Divide that by $0.39 of 2012 earnings, and you're paying just 6.3 times those earnings for Bad NWS. (Earlier in the week, with the shares at $15.64, you were only paying 2.8x earnings.) "Not entirely free," wrote Nathanson at the time. "But very, very cheap." The argument still stands today. If the board does do its job and forces Murdoch to seriously consider all strategic options, there just might be some real money to be made on these shares.

????The biggest risk that Nathanson can see is that the company's derailed acquisition of the part of BSkyB that it didn't own leaves Rupert with too much money to play with, therefore increasing the likelihood of his making another value-destroying acquisition like that of Dow Jones or MySpace. It says a lot about a company when analyst reports are concerned that the chief executive has too much money at his disposal.

????And he's right to be concerned: Even with all the hush money this firm has apparently been paying out to phone-hacking victims, and including the $5 billion share buyback, News Corp. will have an estimated $9.4 billion in cash on hand at the end of 2012. So there's your big bet: the stock is a BUY if the board can stop Rupert from doing something stupid with the money, while also forcing him to consider breaking the company up for the good of its shareholders.

????After his performance on Tuesday, it doesn't seem like either one of those tasks is going to be too hard.




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@關子臨: 自信也許會壓倒聰明,演技的好壞也許會壓倒腦力的強弱,好領導就是循循善誘的人,不獨裁,而有見地,能讓人心悅誠服。    參加討論>>
@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美國學者勞倫斯彼得在對組織中人員晉升的相關現象研究后得出的一個結論:在各種組織中,由于習慣于對在某個等級上稱職的人員進行晉升提拔,因而雇員總是趨向于晉升到其不稱職的地位。    參加討論>>
@Bruce的森林:正念,應該可以解釋為專注當下的事情,而不去想過去這件事是怎么做的,這件事將來會怎樣。一方面,這種理念可以幫助員工排除雜念,把注意力集中在工作本身,減少壓力,提高創造力。另一方面,這不失為提高員工工作效率的好方法。可能后者是各大BOSS們更看重的吧。    參加討論>>


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