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????蘋(píng)果（Apple）將在約兩周后，即7月19日發(fā)布第三財(cái)季財(cái)報(bào)。據(jù)湯姆遜金融（Thomson Financial）報(bào)道，華爾街的分析師們目前一致認(rèn)為，蘋(píng)果公司每股盈利將達(dá)5.69美元，營(yíng)收有望達(dá)到246.7億美元，分別同比增長(zhǎng)62.1%和57.2%。

????這樣的增長(zhǎng)率聽(tīng)起來(lái)也許很不錯(cuò)，但與蘋(píng)果信息網(wǎng)站The Mac Observer上Apple Finance Board論壇里的業(yè)余分析師們所做的預(yù)測(cè)相比，實(shí)在不算什么。

????上周末，羅伯特?保羅?雷濤發(fā)布了蘋(píng)果第三財(cái)季營(yíng)收預(yù)測(cè)報(bào)告。雷濤領(lǐng)導(dǎo)著30多名Apple Finance Board論壇的活躍成員，這份報(bào)告是他們共同做出的。就我們所知，雷濤的團(tuán)隊(duì)是世界上最大的非專(zhuān)業(yè)企業(yè)分析師團(tuán)隊(duì)。[《財(cái)富》（Fortune）曾在其蘋(píng)果季度營(yíng)收預(yù)測(cè)“比賽”中，列出過(guò)雷濤團(tuán)隊(duì)部分成員的數(shù)據(jù)。]他們的預(yù)測(cè)頗為有趣，因?yàn)樗麄兛偙热A爾街更為精確。

????Apple Finance Board預(yù)測(cè)蘋(píng)果每股盈利將達(dá)6.66美元，營(yíng)收將為265.56億美元，分別同比增長(zhǎng)89.61%和69.14%。上一財(cái)季蘋(píng)果每股盈利增長(zhǎng)92%，營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)82%，可謂飛漲；與之相比，本財(cái)季略有下降。

????以下列出了雷濤的預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)。更詳細(xì)的報(bào)告請(qǐng)參閱他在Posts At Eventide網(wǎng)站發(fā)布的博客。具體鏈接為：鏈接1、鏈接2。

????Apple (AAPL) will report its earnings for the June quarter on July 19, two weeks from today. The current consensus among Wall Street analysts, according to Thomson Financial, is that the company earned $5.69 per share on sales of $24.67 billion, up 62.1% and 57.2%, respectively.

????Impressive as those growth rates might sound, they're anemic compared with what the amateur analysts at The Mac Observer's Apple Finance Board are forecasting.

????Over the weekend, Robert Paul Leitao, who rides herd over 30 active AFB members, posted their estimates for Apple's fiscal Q3. His is, as far as we know, the largest collection of amateur analysts for any company in the world. (Fortune uses a subset of his group for its quarterly Apple earnings smackdown.) Their estimates are of interest because they are invariably more accurate than Wall Street's.

????The AFB consensus is calling for earnings of $6.66 on sales of $26.556 billion, up 89.61% and 69.14%. respectively -- a modest slowdown from last quarter's breakneck earnings growth of 92% and sales growth of 82%.

????We've copied Leitao's spreadsheets below the fold. The details are available on his blog, Posts At Eventide, here and here.