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野火撲救大有商機,行業發展存在隱憂
 作者: David Tao     時間: 2011年06月28日    來源: 財富中文網
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政府越來越依靠私營承包商來撲滅野火,但是應急救災這個行業和野火本身一樣難以預測。
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????美國亞利桑那州沃露大火繼續肆虐,美國聯邦政府和地方政府都在日以繼夜地搶險以控制火勢蔓延。然而,私營承包商在救火方面扮演著越來越重要的角色。

????政府部門雖然負責協調救火工作,但救火的實際操作越來越多地由私營承包商負責。全球變暖帶來的高溫和干旱使得大火頻繁發生,而政府機構卻資金短缺,因此營利性公司發揮的作用越來越大。

????然而,每年大火發生的時節都無法預測,公共財政狀況也不太穩定,這些都使得人們對私營承包商應對險情的能力心存疑慮。

????私營企業在美國承擔了40%以上的救火任務,國家野火救助協會(National Wildfire Suppression Association)是這些私營承包商的代表,該協會執行董事黛比?麥莉稱,這一數字和美國林務支出(Forest Service)的數據一致。2008年,美國林務支出了7.57億美元,聘用了1,000多個私營救火公司,約為野火救助預算的52% (總預算為14.6億美元)。2009年和2010年火情稀少,支出下降了一半,為總預算的41%。

????雖然業務暫時有所下降,但是在過去20幾年中,私營承包商在美國野火控制的大部分領域都發揮了重大的作用。部分承包商甚至能夠覆蓋美國境內的廣大地區,在火災發生時啟動救火行動,如野火撲救和咨詢公司Chubb's Wildfire Defense Systems在美國14個州開展業務,消防公司Rural Metro的救火范圍也輻射至全國。然而,該行業的組成仍以小型承包商居多,很多公司員工屈指可數,重型救火設備也僅有一兩臺。據麥莉估計,約75% 的野火救助承包商都屬于后者。

????消防行動使用的飛機從一開始就有很大部分是私有的(因為這些飛機一到冬天就閑置不用,政府機構無法負擔),而承包地勤人員則是一種相對較新的趨勢。第一個不包含飛機服務的合同簽署于1986年,這類做法一直很盛行,直到1988年黃石公園(Yellowstone)大面積失火。此后,聯邦政府和州政府便靠私有公司來清理灌木叢和監控燃燒。私有公司承擔了越來越多的協調配合工作。

????“20年前的消防營跟現在比大不一樣——當時就是些政府雇員,不執勤的時候就在帳篷里睡大覺,”美國土地管理局(Bureau of Land Management)發言人肯?弗雷德里克說。“而現在有了數據處理,食物救濟,沐浴設施,飲用水服務,以及運輸工作。私營承包商的作用大大提高。”

管理監督

????和政府機構不同,私營承包商的雇員在淡季時還能夠從事其他工作,如景觀美化和建筑方面。當然,這種靈活性的也存在負面影響,即人員的流動率使得私營公司的員工很難積累足夠的消防經驗,至少對一線消防員來說確實如此。照理說承包商消防員需要按國家野火協調集團(National Wildfire Coordinating Group)制定的標準接受培訓,但是這一標準的執行卻得不到保證。

????在2006林業消防合同的審計中,美國農業部(USDA) 表示擔心有些私營承包公司的消防員并沒有在上崗前接受充分的培訓。作為回應,承包商代表加大了對公司培訓設施的第三方監督,但是他們仍舊有權給自己的員工授予培訓上崗證書。

????一些承包商消防員之前有為政府消防隊工作的經驗,但私營公司可以自頒證書的風險在于,公司為了處理緊急野火事故,有可能會縮短新員工的培訓,以便迅速彌補人員不足。

????另外一個問題是,由于這一行業的高度不穩定性和激烈的業務競爭,承包商投機的風險在加大;同時政府不得不經常尋求新的合作伙伴,并且這種合作關系通常都是在緊急狀況下倉促形成的。

????沃露大火是亞利桑那州歷史上最大的野火事件,另外兩次大火發生在Monument 和Horseshoe II。這次大火使得2011年成為美國消防公司最忙碌的一年,但也只是在西北部地區,當地許多新成立的公司都在競爭,希望參與滅火行動。相形之下,在美國傳統的火情重災區太平洋西北地區,據麥莉說,今年的淡季導致該地很多承包商關門歇業。尤其是該行業大量的小承包商,他們的情況很不樂觀。

????她說:“做這行,你得是非常精明的商人”,沒人知道下一場大火發生的時間和地點,“所以不一定總有活干”。

????雖然野火管理承包給私營公司不僅對政府支出造成風險,承包商本身也要承擔風險,但是很多公司仍然在尋找災難帶來的新市場。負責協調政府機構消防事宜的國家野火協調集團現在也在打算讓私營承包商承擔更多工作。

????雖然該計劃還處于擬定階段,但這一提議將使私營公司對野火響應事宜的掌控達到前所未有的水平,不管是一線的消防人員還是負責組織的管理人員。實際上,該計劃轉交給承包商的責任還包括協調政府機構和私營承包商,這難免會加大發生利益沖突的可能性。

????目前,亞利桑那州的大火還在繼續,我們無法確定下一場大火發生的地點,同樣不確定的還有到時候誰將來保護我們。

????As the Wallow fire continues to rage in Arizona, federal, state, and municipal entities are working around the clock to contain it. But there's another group of increasingly important firefighters battling the blaze: private contractors.

????While governmental agencies are responsible for coordinating wildfire management efforts, the physical operations of containment are increasingly the domain of private business. And as global warming contributes to hotter temperatures and dryer conditions fueling more intense fire seasons, for-profit companies are taking on bigger roles where increasingly cash-strapped government bodies come up short.

????Yet the unpredictability of yearly fire seasons, combined with the uncertainty of public finances, raises questions about contractors' ability to address such emergencies.

????Private industry makes up over 40% of wildfire services across the country, a number in line with Forest Service expenditures, according to Debby Miley, executive director of the National Wildfire Suppression Association, which represents contractors. In 2008, the Forest Service spent $757 million on more than 1,000 private contracts, roughly 52% of its $1.46 billion budget for wildfire suppression. In 2009 and 2010 -- two slow fire seasons when expenditures dropped by half -- that fraction fell to 41%.

????Despite what's likely a temporary dip, private contractors have over the past two decades become big players in most aspects of wildfire management. A few have emerged that can respond to fires across a broad swath of the U.S. -- Chubb's Wildfire Defense Systems currently operates in 14 states, and Rural Metro's (RURL) fire operations span the country. But the industry is still largely comprised of small contractors, many with just a handful of employees and one or two pieces of heavy equipment. Miley estimates around 75% of contracting wildfire companies fit in this latter category.

????While wildfire aviation has been largely private since its inception (government agencies can't afford to pay for planes that would sit idle during the winter), the use of contracting ground crews is a relatively new development. The first non-aviation contracts were signed in 1986, and by the time much of Yellowstone went up in smoke in 1988, the practice was flourishing. Federal and state entities have since relied on private companies to clear brush, light backfires, and fulfill an increasingly diverse array of support roles.

????"Twenty years ago, fire camps looked much different -- it was just some government employees sleeping in tents between shifts," says Bureau of Land Management spokesperson Ken Frederick. "Today there's data processing, food services, showers, potable water services, transportation. The private contractors' roles have ballooned."

Regulatory oversight

????Unlike government bodies, private contractors can hire their work crews for jobs in landscaping or construction during the fire offseason. The downside to this flexibility, at least for crews on the front lines, is that higher rates of turnover can make it difficult for private employees to accumulate the necessary firefighting experience. And while contracted firefighters are expected to go through training outlined by the National Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWCG), the ability to enforce such standards is hotly contested.

????In a 2006 audit of the Forest Service's firefighting contracts, the USDA expressed concerns that some private employees received inadequate training prior to work. Groups representing contractors have responded by upping their use of third-party monitors on company training facilities, though companies are still allowed to certify their own employees.

????Some contract firefighters have prior experience working for government agencies. But the risk of private certification is that companies responding to a sudden wildfire outbreak might be tempted to speed new employees through training in order to capitalize on the spike in labor needs.

????Another worry is that high industry turnover and competition for contracts increases the risk of cutting corners and burdens the government with a constant stream of new partnerships, often formed during a state of emergency.

????Wallow is the largest wildfire in Arizona history and, along with Monument and Horseshoe II, one of three state fires making 2011 one of the busiest seasons in recent memory…but only for the Southwest, where new companies are vying to get involved. In contrast, the Pacific Northwest is normally a literal hotbed of fire activity, and according to Miley, a slow season has led many contractors in that region to close down operations; the industry's many small operations are especially at risk.

????"The trick in this industry is that you've got to be a very astute businessman," she says, noting the impossibility of pinpointing where and when the next big fire will strike. "There are no work guarantees."

????But for all the risks associated with contracting wildfire management -- both to taxpayer dollars and the private contractors themselves -- companies are continuing to find new, profitable niches in the business of disaster. The NWCG, responsible for coordinating wildfire response between government agencies, is considering a plan to contract out even more work.

????Though still in the proposal stage, the plan would give private companies an unprecedented level of control over wildfire response, from the workers on the ground up to the committees organizing those workers. In effect, the program would contract out the act of coordinating both government agencies and private contractors, which could increase opportunities for conflicts of interest.

????For now, the Arizona wildfires continue to rage as the nation remains unsure where the next one will strike -- or who will protect us when it does.




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@關子臨: 自信也許會壓倒聰明,演技的好壞也許會壓倒腦力的強弱,好領導就是循循善誘的人,不獨裁,而有見地,能讓人心悅誠服。    參加討論>>
@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美國學者勞倫斯彼得在對組織中人員晉升的相關現象研究后得出的一個結論:在各種組織中,由于習慣于對在某個等級上稱職的人員進行晉升提拔,因而雇員總是趨向于晉升到其不稱職的地位。    參加討論>>
@Bruce的森林:正念,應該可以解釋為專注當下的事情,而不去想過去這件事是怎么做的,這件事將來會怎樣。一方面,這種理念可以幫助員工排除雜念,把注意力集中在工作本身,減少壓力,提高創造力。另一方面,這不失為提高員工工作效率的好方法。可能后者是各大BOSS們更看重的吧。    參加討論>>


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