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????針對(duì)是為蘋果（Apple）的iOS操作系統(tǒng)還是為谷歌（Google）的Android操作系統(tǒng)開發(fā)應(yīng)用程序更明智這一話題，聯(lián)合廣場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資公司（Union Square Ventures）的弗雷德?威爾森與Instapaper的馬爾科?阿門特于上周末進(jìn)行了一番辯論。緊接著，貝爾德公司的威廉姆?鮑爾斯在本周一公布了一份由250位開發(fā)人員參與的調(diào)研結(jié)果。

????身為一名風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家，威爾森一直建議開發(fā)人員先為Android開發(fā)應(yīng)用程序，而且他預(yù)言iPhone與Android之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)終將成為Windows與Macintosh之爭(zhēng)的翻版。

????而開發(fā)人員出身的阿門特則對(duì)這個(gè)建議不以為然。他認(rèn)為Android的市場(chǎng)份額增加可能并不屬實(shí)，特別是考慮到iPad的興起。另外，他指出谷歌的操作系統(tǒng)作為一個(gè)開發(fā)環(huán)境存在嚴(yán)重缺陷。

????貝爾德公司的調(diào)研結(jié)果顯示，開發(fā)人員已采納威爾森的建議。71%的調(diào)查對(duì)象表示他們已經(jīng)在為Android開發(fā)應(yīng)用程序，而選擇為iOS開發(fā)應(yīng)用程序的僅占62%（為其他任何平臺(tái)開發(fā)應(yīng)用程序的受訪者比例均不超過27%）。

????但調(diào)研同時(shí)顯示，為Android開發(fā)應(yīng)用的程序員發(fā)現(xiàn)，該系統(tǒng)生態(tài)環(huán)境恰如阿門特預(yù)示的那樣存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

????其中，顯著存在的問題包括：

????·移動(dòng)設(shè)備分散。56%的Android開發(fā)人員表示，Android各款移動(dòng)設(shè)備間的操作系統(tǒng)分散性是一個(gè)嚴(yán)重或“重大”的問題，而對(duì)這一劣勢(shì)的投訴比例實(shí)際上在過去的三個(gè)月有所上升。

????·應(yīng)用商店分化。一些開發(fā)人員對(duì)Android應(yīng)用商店的分化現(xiàn)象表示出憂慮。貝爾德公司的調(diào)研報(bào)告指出，“一般來(lái)說，開發(fā)人員更偏好統(tǒng)一獨(dú)立的應(yīng)用商店，諸如蘋果的應(yīng)用商店。”

????·應(yīng)用開發(fā)難度大。在這方面，iOS性能優(yōu)于Android，但與RIM公司的黑莓（BlackBerry）操作系統(tǒng)或諾基亞（Nokia）的Symbian相比，為iOS和Android開發(fā)應(yīng)用要簡(jiǎn)單得多。

????·應(yīng)用曝光率低。貝爾德公司的調(diào)研報(bào)告指出，“iOS繼續(xù)保持行業(yè)領(lǐng)先地位，黑莓緊隨其后，而Android在這一方面仍然處于劣勢(shì)。”開發(fā)人員對(duì)于Android生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中的“垃圾”應(yīng)用程序數(shù)量尤其擔(dān)心。

????·獲得收入的情況。iOS在此方面同樣領(lǐng)先，黑莓則位居其次。

????On the heels of the debate played out over the weekend between Union Square Ventures' Fred Wilson and Instapaper's Marco Arment about whether it's wiser to be writing apps for Apple's (AAPL) iOS or Google's (GOOG) Android come the results a survey of 250 working developers released Monday by Baird's William Powers.

????Wilson, a venture capitalist, has been advising developers to write first for Android, predicting that the iPhone vs. Android battle will turn out to be a replay of Windows vs. Macintosh.

????Arment, a developer, thinks that's bad advice. He believes Android's market share gains may be illusory -- especially when the rise of the iPad is taken into account -- and that as a development environment, Google's OS has serious shortcomings.

????Baird's survey suggests that developers have taken Wilson's advice. 71% of respondents said they were writing apps for Android vs. 62% for iOS. (None of the other platforms drew more than 27%.)

????But the survey also suggests that programmers writing for Android are finding the ecosystem to be every bit as perilous as Arment predicted.

????Among the problems that surfaced:

?????Device fragmentation.56% of Android developers said that operating system fragmentation among the various Android devices was a meaningful or "huge" problem, a percentage that actually increased over the past three months.

?????Store fragmentation.Several developers expressed concern over Android app store fragmentation. "Generally," Baird reports, "developers seem to prefer a unified, single store experience like Apple's App Store."

?????Ease of development.iOS outscored Android, but both were considered far easier to develop for than, say, Research in Motion's (RIMM) BlackBerry OS or Nokia (NOK) Symbian.

?????App visibility."iOS continues to lead," Baird reports, "followed by Blackberry, with Android still receiving poor marks in this category." Developers are particularly concerned about the level of "junk" apps in the Android ecosystem.

?????Ability to get paid.iOS leads here too, followed by BlackBerry.