10張圖告訴你華爾街緣何踩蘋果而捧亞馬遜
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????衡量?jī)芍还善钡南鄬?duì)價(jià)值時(shí)，最簡(jiǎn)單、使用最廣泛的一項(xiàng)指標(biāo)是市盈率。去年11月，我們?cè)鴮?duì)比蘋果（蘋果）和亞馬遜（Amazon）兩家公司的市盈率。當(dāng)時(shí)，蘋果的追溯市盈率為13，而亞馬遜為2,767。 ????此后，我們未能再次對(duì)比兩者的市盈率，因?yàn)閬嗰R遜的追溯市盈率——借用動(dòng)畫(huà)人物巴斯光年的臺(tái)詞——已經(jīng)趨向無(wú)窮大（或者如股價(jià)圖的標(biāo)示，追溯市盈率這個(gè)指標(biāo)對(duì)亞馬遜已經(jīng)不再適用）。在此期間，蘋果的市盈率隨著其股價(jià)起伏，一直維持在10至11之間。 ????亞馬遜上周五公布了6月份這一季度的財(cái)報(bào)，報(bào)告顯示亞馬遜已經(jīng)連續(xù)三個(gè)季度未能實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利。盡管業(yè)績(jī)慘淡，亞馬遜卻受到華爾街熱捧，股價(jià)也被推至歷史高點(diǎn)，達(dá)到每股312.01美元。 ????然而，蘋果在三天前發(fā)布了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的三季度銷售業(yè)績(jī)（雖然利潤(rùn)有所減少），但它的股價(jià)卻僅僅有一天出現(xiàn)反彈。各位讀者對(duì)此估計(jì)已經(jīng)見(jiàn)怪不怪了。 ????這是因?yàn)閷?duì)華爾街而言，蘋果和亞馬遜的業(yè)務(wù)完全不同。正如Investor Village's AAPL Sanity論壇上的一位常客上周所言： ????“華爾街眼中的亞馬遜是世界最大的（線上）全球零售商，增長(zhǎng)空間幾乎是無(wú)限的。而蘋果在他們看來(lái)不過(guò)是一家增長(zhǎng)空間有限的（手機(jī)）設(shè)備制造商，因?yàn)樘O果完全仰仗自身不斷創(chuàng)新的能力，以及擊退競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手、控制極不穩(wěn)定的供應(yīng)鏈，同時(shí)擴(kuò)大（最終會(huì)飽和的）市場(chǎng)能力。” ????為了強(qiáng)調(diào)華爾街到底有多青睞亞馬遜，而討厭蘋果，讀者“默克爾”發(fā)布了九張柱狀圖以及一張展示兩家公司近八年銷售額的圖表，供各位參考。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：項(xiàng)航?
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????In November, the last time we compared Apple's (AAPL) and Amazon's (AMZN) price-to-earnings ratios -- the simplest and most widely used metric to gauge the relative value of a pair of stocks -- Apple's trailing PE was 13 and Amazon's was 2,767. ????We haven't been able to repeat the exercise because while Apple PE has drifted with its stock price to between 10 and 11, Amazon's trailing PE has reached, as Buzz Lightyear might put it, infinity and beyond. (Or, as the stock charts politely have it, NA.) ????That's because Amazon, which reported its June earnings on Friday, hasn't turned a profit for three quarters in a row -- a performance that Wall Street rewarded by pushing its stock to an all-time-high of $312.01. ????It will come as no surprise to readers here that Apple, which posted record fiscal Q3 sales (but lower earnings) three days earlier, couldn't catch more than a one-day break on the stock market. ????That's because as far as Wall Street is concerned, Apple and Amazon are in completely different businesses. As a regular on Investor Village's AAPL Sanity board put it last week: ????"The Street sees Amazon as the world's biggest (online) global retailer with almost limitless growth. [It] sees Apple as a (mobile) device maker that because it is wholly dependent on its ability to innovate nonstop, expand its (ultimately saturated) markets while fighting off competition and controlling its very unstable supply chain, has limited growth." ????To underscore just how much Wall Street loves Amazon and hates Apple, the reader who posts as "Merckel" has submitted for your consideration nine bar graphs and a five-year sales chart:?? |
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