微軟、谷歌財報不佳，蘋果財報值得期待
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????一說到季度收益報告，微軟（Microsoft）和谷歌（Google）總是令其他公司難以企及。
????但這一財季，兩家公司的表現卻沒有重演這樣的情形。 ????受到市場從臺式機向移動計算設備轉移的影響，兩家公司上周四公布的財報令人失望，兩家公司股票盤后交易中均大幅下跌——谷歌下跌了37.81美元（跌幅4.15%），微軟下跌了2.23美元（跌幅6.29%）。 ????蘋果（Apple）也即將公布其財報。雖然過去幾個月，蘋果公司也遭遇了不少挫傷，但反常的是，蘋果或許是這三家公司中表現最好的一家。 ????一方面，幾年前，公司進行了重新定位，將其主要收入來源從臺式機轉移到移動計算領域——先是推出了iPhone（2007年），然后是iPad（2010年）。 ????另一方面，分析師對于蘋果在六月季度的預期很低（見上圖），蘋果很容易就能超出這樣的預期。 ????正如我們在上周所報道的，本季度，外界調低了對蘋果的預期。其中華爾街早前就預計，蘋果公司收益將報出年比零增長。 ????《財富》雜志（Fortune）調查的56位蘋果分析師（其中37位是華爾街專業分析師，19位是業余分析師）預計，蘋果公司的收入平均為354億美元。其中專業分析師預測蘋果公司收入為349.9億美元（略低于去年的350.2億美元），而業余分析師的預測在361.8億美元以上。蘋果公司自己給出的預期指導為335億至355億美元之間。 ????但對每股收益率的預測卻存在很大差異。 ????對于公司的總體收益率，蘋果再次給分析師們出了一道又難度的“比較題”。去年這個時候，蘋果毛利潤率達到42.8%，很大程度上得益于高毛利的iPhone和iPad銷售。今年，它的收入更多來自低毛利的iPad mini和折扣出售的舊款iPhone。蘋果在四月份曾警告過分析師，對于公司毛利潤率的預期不要超過36%至37%。 |
????When it comes to quarterly earnings reports, Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) can be tough acts to follow. ????Not this quarter. ????Wounded each in their own way by the shift from desktop to mobile computing, both companies reported disappointing earnings Thursday, and their shares fell sharply in after-hours trading -- Google by $37.81 (-4.15%) and Microsoft by $2.23 (-6.29%). ????Apple (AAPL) is up next, and despite the many wounds it's suffered over the past months, it may be -- paradoxically -- in the best shape of the three. ????For one thing, the company repositioned itself years ago, shifting its main source of revenue from desktop to mobile computing -- first with the iPhone (2007), then with the iPad (2010). ????For another, expectations for the June quarter are so low (see charts above) that the company has a good chance of beating them. ????As we reported last week, this is Apple's quarter of lowered expectations, in which the Street has reconciled itself in advance to zero revenue growth year over year. ????The average revenue estimate among the 56 Apple analysts Fortune polled -- 37 Wall Street professionals and 19 amateurs -- is $35.4 billion, with the pros at $34.99 (a bit below last year's $35.02 billion), and the amateurs a bit above at $36.18 billion. Apple's guidance was a range: $33.5 billion to $35.5 billion. ????Earnings per share, however, are a different story. ????Apple is once again facing what analysts call a "difficult compare" in terms of the company's overall profitability. Last year at this time Apple reported a gross margin of 42.8%, driven largely by high-margin iPhone and iPad sales. This year, more of its revenue is coming from lower-margin iPad minis and discounted older-model iPhones, and in April Apple warned analysts not to expect gross margins outside the 36% to 37% range. |
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