????本周晚些時候，中國最大電子商務企業阿里巴巴（Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.）將在紐約證券交易所上市。該公司的股票代碼為BABA，預計將從投資者手中籌集資金逾210億美元。這只即將上市的股票備受關注，投資者自然也提出了一些問題，比如該公司的估值以及對今后的IPO市場會有哪些影響。

????阿里巴巴到底價值幾何？回顧一下亞馬遜（Amazon.com）的IPO會有助于回答這個問題。1997年上市時，亞馬遜還只是一家在線書籍零售商。如果投資者只把它視為美國的一家書商，那么要想讓首發價格達到18美元，亞馬遜就得迅速占據美國圖書市場90%以上的份額并且一直保持這樣的水平！不過，這樣的衡量標準忽略了一點，那就是當年亞馬遜具有的實物期權價值。

????最初，亞馬遜首席執行官杰夫?貝佐斯列出了20種有可能在線銷售的商品，包括書籍、軟件和CD。雖然從圖書起步，但如果他的經營模式獲得成功，就可以推廣到其他產品上，也可以延伸到其他國家和地區。事后證明，這種規模擴張期權蘊含著極大的價值。當這些期權兌現時，不僅證明了亞馬遜的IPO價物有所值，還證明了該公司的股價應該遠高于首發價格，2014年9月15日亞馬遜的收盤價為323.89美元，按照12比1的整體股票拆分比例復權后，亞馬遜的市值為1500億美元，而上市當天市值僅為4.38億美元，也就是說亞馬遜這些年來的年均資本增長率高達41%！

????和亞馬遜一樣，阿里巴巴的大部分收入也來自在線交易，該公司占有中國約80%的電子商務市場份額。其第一個交易平臺Alibaba.com把中國的制造商和小型企業聯系在了一起。淘寶網是它的C2C平臺，類似于eBay，是一個虛擬市場。天貓是B2C平臺，是一個虛擬購物中心，中國購物者可在此買到跨國公司的產品。支付寶則是阿里巴巴的在線支付業務，類似于eBay的PayPal，為每一筆交易提供擔保。

????科技與市場調研機構Forrester Research提供的數據顯示，中國在線零售行業的規模已經突破3000億美元，預計到2018年將增長80%。在這樣的背景下，阿里巴巴的招股說明書著重強調了這一增長機會。該公司還有一條兌現實物期權的途徑，那就是跨越國界的國際性擴張，包括向美國消費者的延伸，因為他們是世界上在線購物消費最高的群體。從亞馬遜的IPO中可以看出，實物期權兌現時的規模將極大地影響阿里巴巴的最終估值水平。

????如果要推測阿里巴巴的上市對IPO市場有何影響，我們就應該回顧一下谷歌（Google）的首發過程。周二，阿里巴巴對提交給美國證監會（SEC）的F1表格進行了第7次修正。修正后的信息顯示，該公司將3.201億份美國存托憑證的詢價區間從60-66美元調整為66-68美元。本次IPO的規模預計將達到211-217.7億美元，超過2008年Visa首發時的197億美元，預計將在美國市場創下新的紀錄。從歷史上看，重大IPO能夠保證隨后的IPO市場處于炙手可熱的狀態嗎？未必。

????2004年谷歌的首發規模為16.7億美元，達到了前所未有的水平，而且與之前那些通過修改后的荷蘭式招標[又稱單一價格招標，是指按照投標人所報買價自高向低（或者利率、利差由低而高）的順序中標，直至滿足預定發行額為止，中標的承銷機構以相同的價格（所有中標價格中的最低價格）來認購中標的國債數額。——譯注]上市的公司相比，谷歌的IPO規模要大得多（在它之前的10次荷蘭式招標的總融資額只有3.13億美元）。然而，谷歌的IPO并未引發新股洶涌而來的局面，在這之后也一直沒有公司用荷蘭式招標首發上市，直到2005年才出現了晨星（Morningstar）1.40億美元的IPO，隨后是2007年5月盈透證券（Interactive Broker Group）12億美元的IPO。

????關鍵的一點不同可能是路演過程揭示的需求情況。我曾在案例分析文章《別作惡：記2004年谷歌通過荷蘭式招標首發上市》（Don’t Be Evil: Google’s 2004 Dutch Auction Initial Public Offering，由哥倫比亞商學院CaseWorks項目出版）中明確指出，谷歌原計劃融資27億美元。該公司原定發行股票2460萬股，詢價區間為每股108-135美元；隨后，發行數量提高到了2570萬股。但接下來，谷歌調整了自己對需求的樂觀預期。由于路演遇到困難，谷歌的IPO再三推遲。最終，該公司只發行了1960萬股，詢價區間也降至85-95美元；最終確定的發行價為85美元，籌集資金16.7億美元。需求萎縮也許不僅意味著對這支新股的興趣減弱，而意味著對所有新股的整體興趣減弱；它所體現的可能不僅僅是投資者對這家公司的增長前景信心下降，他們對所有新上市公司可能都是如此。

????和谷歌的遭遇相反，阿里巴巴的股票一直非常受歡迎，而且早早就完成了申購。周二收盤后，阿里巴巴提高了詢價區間，發行價上限從66美元升至68美元，這可能在一定程度上表明人們對新股變得更有興趣，投資者對其他公司的增長前景也更有信心。許多互聯網和科技公司都已經提交了首發上市申請文件，但還沒有開始公開招股，其中包括云存儲服務商Box Inc.、網絡域名供應商GoDaddy Inc.、集客式營銷軟件制造商HubSpot、個人貸款公司LendingClub Corp.以及太陽能企業Vivint Solar。這些公司都等著看阿里巴巴的表現，然后再進行自己的發行。

????只有時間能告訴我們阿里巴巴價值多少，以及此后的IPO市場是否紅火。不過，來自亞馬遜和谷歌IPO的經驗肯定能為我們的預測提供參考。（財富中文網）

????勞麗?西蒙?霍德里克是哥倫比亞商學院（Columbia Business School）商業系A. Barton Hepburn經濟學教授和金融研究項目創始人兼負責人。

????譯者：Charlie

????Later this week, China’s largest e-commerce company, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., is expected to raise over $21 billion from investors, going public on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol BABA. As investors consider this imminent high-profile initial public offering, questions about the valuation of the company and the implications for the future of the IPO market naturally arise.

????What is Alibaba really worth? It helps to take a look back at Amazon.com’s IPO. When the company went public in 1997, it was exclusively an online book retailer. If an investor assumed it was to remain a domestic bookseller, justifying the IPO price of $18 would have required that Amazon quickly achieve and then maintain over 90% market share in books! But, such a benchmarking calibration ignores valuable real options that were available to Amazon in 1997.

????CEO Jeff Bezos had originally created a list of 20 potential products to sell online, including books, software, and CDs. While he began with books, his business model, if successful, could then be exported into other product markets, as well as into other countries. These scope-up growth options proved ex post to have significant value. As they were realized, they not only justified the IPO price but a price far higher: Amazon’s price of $323.89 at the market close on September 15th, 2014, after split adjustments totaling 12:1, implies a market capitalization of $150 billion, compared to Amazon’s market capitalization of $438 million after its first trading day. This represents an ex post annualized capital gain of 41%!

????Like Amazon AMZN 1.19% , Alibaba gets most of its revenue from online sales, handling approximately 80% of the e-commerce in China. Alibaba.com, the company’s original marketplace, connects Chinese manufacturers with small businesses. Taobao, its consumer to consumer platform similar to eBay, offers a virtual marketplace. Tmall, its business to consumer platform, provides a virtual shopping center giving international companies access to Chinese buyers. And Alipay, its online payment processor akin to eBay’s EBAY 1.28% PayPal, guarantees every transaction.

????With China’s online retail shopping industry of over $300 billion expected to grow 80% by 2018, according to Forrester Research, Alibaba’s prospectus emphasizes this growth opportunity. Another opportunity for realizing real options can be found in cross-border international expansion, including to American consumers who spend the most money online in the world. As learned from Amazon’s IPO, the magnitude of the realizations of these real options will significantly affect Alibaba’s ultimate valuation.

????If we’re to hypothesize what Alibaba’s IPO implies for the market for IPOs, it’s worth taking a look back at Google’s debut on the public market. Based on yesterday’s Amendment No. 7 to its F1 registration filed with the SEC, increasing the IPO price range from $60-$66 to $66-$68 per share for 320.1 million American depository shares, Alibaba’s $21.1 to $21.77 billion offering is expected to be the largest is U.S. history, exceeding Visa’s 2008 $19.7 billion IPO. Does a historically large IPO guarantee a hot IPO market to follow? Not necessarily.

????Google’s unprecedented $1.67 billion IPO in 2004 was by far the largest modified Dutch auction IPO ever (with only $313 million cumulative total Dutch auction IPO proceeds in the ten previous Dutch auction IPOs). It did not, however, stimulate a flood of additional deals, with no subsequent Dutch auction IPOs until Morningstar’s $140 million IPO in 2005 and Interactive Broker Group’s $1.2 billion IPO in May 2007.

????One key difference might be the information about demand revealed during the road show. As detailed in my case study, “Don’t Be Evil: Google’s 2004 Dutch Auction Initial Public Offering,” published by Columbia CaseWorks, Google had originally planned to raise $2.7 billion. It set its offer at $108-$135 per share for 24.6 million shares but then increased the amount offered to 25.7 million shares. Their sanguine assessment of demand subsequently altered: After several delays following road show challenges, Google GOOG 1.20% finally offered only 19.6 million shares at a reduced price of $85-$95, with the offer closing at $85, raising $1.67 billion. Weakened demand for shares may signal not only less appetite for the offered stock but also for IPO shares more generally, and may suggest not only less investor confidence in the firm’s growth prospects but also for firms more broadly.

????In contrast to Google, demand for Alibaba shares has been sufficiently strong that the order book is being closed early. The increase in the offering price announced after yesterday’s market close, raising the maximum price from $66 to $68, could indicate in part greater overall IPO appetite and more investor confidence in growth prospects for other firms. Many Internet and tech companies have filed IPO paperwork but not yet gone public, including Box Inc., GoDaddy Inc., HubSpot, LendingClub Corp., and Vivint Solar. These firms await Alibaba’s performance before moving forward with their own offerings.

????Only time will tell what Alibaba will be worth, and whether the IPO market that follows will be hot, but lessons from the Amazon and Google IPOs certainly help to inform our expectations.

????Laurie Simon Hodrick is the A. Barton Hepburn Professor of Economics in the Faculty of Business and the Founding Director of the Program for Financial Studies at Columbia Business School.