阿里巴巴IPO：對(duì)投資者來(lái)說(shuō)這是一筆“撿漏”的買賣
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· 阿里巴巴IPO：對(duì)投資者來(lái)說(shuō)這是一筆“撿漏”的買賣
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????阿里巴巴（Alibaba）的IPO很可能火爆異常，但投資者仍有撿到便宜的機(jī)會(huì)。 ????換言之：阿里巴巴可能是中國(guó)的亞馬遜（Amazon），但不會(huì)成為IPO市場(chǎng)的下一個(gè)Facebook。（給那些忘性大的人提個(gè)醒，F(xiàn)acebook在IPO后的表現(xiàn)可不怎么樣。） ????上周，紐約大學(xué)（New York University）金融學(xué)教授、交易估值專家阿斯沃斯?達(dá)摩達(dá)蘭針對(duì)阿里巴巴股票估值發(fā)表了一篇分析文章。達(dá)摩達(dá)蘭通常認(rèn)為，大部分火爆的華爾街IPO交易都估值過(guò)高。 ????比如，十年前，達(dá)摩達(dá)蘭就表示，谷歌（Google）股價(jià)超過(guò)40美元就不劃算了。而這家搜索引擎巨頭的IPO定價(jià)為每股100美元，比達(dá)摩達(dá)蘭建議上限的兩倍還多。至于Facebook，他曾表示公允價(jià)格是28美元。而這家社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司的實(shí)際IPO價(jià)格是38美元（但上市后該股迅速下跌至18美元附近）。對(duì)于Twitter，達(dá)摩達(dá)蘭給出的價(jià)格是18美元，其實(shí)際IPO價(jià)格為26美元。 ????那么，達(dá)摩達(dá)蘭認(rèn)為阿里巴巴的股票價(jià)值幾何呢？一反往常，達(dá)摩達(dá)蘭給出的價(jià)格為66美元，處于華爾街投行為阿里巴巴建議的IPO定價(jià)區(qū)間60-66美元的上限。因此，至少在達(dá)摩達(dá)蘭看來(lái)，通過(guò)IPO認(rèn)購(gòu)股票的投資者最差也只是付出了該公司應(yīng)有的價(jià)格。他們甚至可能還會(huì)賺一點(diǎn)。 ????并不是每個(gè)人都認(rèn)同這一點(diǎn)。雅虎（Yahoo）股東看起來(lái)有些擔(dān)心。我的同事肖恩?杜利表示，投資者應(yīng)當(dāng)“避開”阿里巴巴的IPO。以66美元的價(jià)格計(jì)算，該公司的市盈率將達(dá)到41倍（基于截至今年3月份的上一財(cái)年數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算），顯著高于標(biāo)普500指數(shù)成份股公司19倍的平均市盈率。看起來(lái)夠貴的？那可不一定。 ????市盈率和股票估值通常與公司的成長(zhǎng)性有很大關(guān)系。公司成長(zhǎng)性越好，股票獲得的市盈率就越高。阿里巴巴正在高速增長(zhǎng)。截至6月份的季度收益同比激增了200%。將利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)因素考慮在內(nèi)，阿里巴巴的靜態(tài)市盈率將降至29倍，低于另一家中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司騰訊（Tencent）47倍的市盈率。 |
????Alibaba’s IPO might turn out to be the rare hot, hyped Wall Street deal that’s also a bargain. ????Put another way: Alibaba might be the Amazon of China, but it won’t be the next Facebook of the IPO market. (Facebook’s IPO, for those who don’t remember. didn’t go so well.) ????Last week, AswathDamodaran, a finance professor at New York University and recognized guru when it comes to valuing deals, published an analysis of what investors should pay for Alibaba’s shares. Damodaran typically thinks that most hot Wall Street IPOs are overpriced. ????Ten years ago, for instance, Damodaran said investors shouldn’t pay more than $40 for shares of Google . The search giant IPOed for more than twice that, at $100. For Facebook , he said a fair price was $28. The social network’s IPO price was $38. (Although the stock quickly plummeted to nearly $18.) For Twitter , Damodaran’s price was $18. It IPOed at $26. ????So what does Damodaran think Alibaba’s share should be worth? More than Wall Street thinks, for a switch. Damodaran’s price is $66, which is at the high end of the $60-to-$66 IPO range that Wall Street has set for Alibaba. So, at least according to Damodaran, the worst investors who get shares in the IPO will do is pay what the company is worth. They might even get a slight deal. ????Not everyone agrees. Yahoo shareholders seem wary. My Fortune colleague Shawn Tully says investors should “stay away” from Alibaba’s IPO. At $66, the company’s shares would have a price-to-earnings ratio (based on its last fiscal year, which ended in March) of 41. That’s considerably higher than the average P/E of 19 of companies on the S&P 500. Seems expensive? Maybe not. ????Price-to-earnings multiples and stock valuations in general have a lot to do with how fast a company is growing. The faster a company is growing, the higher the p/e it receives. Alibaba is growing fast. Its earnings in the three months ending in June jumped 200% from the same period a year ago. Factor those profits in, and Alibaba’s p/e drops to 29. That’s less than fellow Chinese Internet companyTencent, which focuses on online games and trades for 47 times trailing earnings. |
