加入科技初創(chuàng)公司就像買彩票？
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????親愛的安妮：我通常不會干涉孩子們的職業(yè)決定，但這一次，我認(rèn)為兒子即將做一件他肯定會后悔的事情。3年前從斯坦福大學(xué)（Stanford University）畢業(yè)后，他一直在一家《財富》美國500強(qiáng)公司從事IT工作，而且他在那家公司也非常開心。現(xiàn)在，他大學(xué)的幾個朋友正在創(chuàng)辦一家公司，他目前在考慮辭去這份工作，與他們一起創(chuàng)業(yè)。這家新公司提供的薪酬將有一半是股份形式，如果公司上市，他確實(shí)能獲得豐厚的回報。但這樣的幾率，是否就像買彩票一樣？這完全是碰運(yùn)氣，而且最終的大贏家可謂鳳毛麟角。您認(rèn)為呢？——圣馬力諾的質(zhì)疑者 ????親愛的質(zhì)疑者：毫無疑問，加入一家初創(chuàng)公司的風(fēng)險，要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于你兒子現(xiàn)在的工作，而且他肯定知道這一點(diǎn)。對于初創(chuàng)公司失敗率，比較靠譜的估計是75%到90%，甚至更高，這要取決于你對失敗的定義。例如，哈佛商學(xué)院（Harvard Business School）的什卡?高希對2,000多家在2004年至2010年至少獲得100萬美元風(fēng)險投資的初創(chuàng)公司進(jìn)行了一番研究。高希發(fā)現(xiàn)，其中約有75%的公司讓投資者血本無歸，有95%未能實(shí)現(xiàn)特定目標(biāo)，如收入增長率或收支平衡預(yù)測等。 ????當(dāng)然，這些悲慘的數(shù)據(jù)并不意味著，想要跳槽的人就不應(yīng)該考慮初創(chuàng)公司——他們只要預(yù)先提出適當(dāng)?shù)膯栴}就行。紐約市科技招聘公司Harris Allied的執(zhí)行董事凱西?哈里斯認(rèn)為，阿里巴巴集團(tuán)（Alibaba）的大規(guī)模IPO及后續(xù)的成功，在求職者中引發(fā)了一股淘金熱潮。她建議，求職者冒險進(jìn)入初創(chuàng)公司之前，應(yīng)該問下面幾個問題： ????? 公司有多少資金？哈里斯發(fā)現(xiàn)，大多數(shù)新公司都是靠借家人和朋友的錢成立的，創(chuàng)始人往往會拿出自己的所有積蓄，甚至透支信用卡。這樣做沒什么問題，但你需要知道公司資金總額除以“資金消耗率”的結(jié)果。“按當(dāng)前的資金水平，公司能夠維持多久？” ????? 公司的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)如何滿足行業(yè)需求？哈里斯說道：“市場上對公司提供的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)，是否有真正的需求？了解一下競爭對手，詢問公司的新產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)如何滿足市場需求。公司有哪些產(chǎn)生收入的機(jī)會？能讓公司盈利的觸發(fā)器是什么？”一份經(jīng)過深思熟慮的商業(yè)計劃書，應(yīng)該可以回答這些問題。而鑒于這家公司的創(chuàng)始人是你孩子的朋友，他應(yīng)該要求看一下公司的商業(yè)計劃書。如果沒有書面的商業(yè)計劃，或計劃書的內(nèi)容不全面，這表明這些人還沒有做好經(jīng)營一家公司的準(zhǔn)備。就是這樣。 |
????Dear Annie: I don’t usually meddle in my kids’ career decisions, but I think my son is about to do something he’ll regret. He’s been working in IT at a Fortune 500 company since he graduated from Stanford three years ago, and he’s been pretty happy there. Now, some friends of his from school are starting a company, and he’s thinking of chucking his job and joining them. About half his compensation would be in equity, and he’s counting on a big payoff if the company goes public. But isn’t that kind of like buying a lottery ticket? It’s a long shot, and you only ever hear about the big winners, who are relatively few and far between. Your thoughts, please? — Skeptical in San Marino ????Dear Skeptical: No question, joining a startup would be a lot riskier than what your son is doing now, and he surely already knows that. Knowledgeable estimates of startup failure rates range from 75% to 90%, and — depending on how you define failure — some are even higher. One study, for instance, by Shikhar Ghosh at Harvard Business School, looked at more than 2,000 fledgling enterprises that received at least $1 million in venture capital funding from 2004 through 2010. Ghosh found that about 75% failed to return investors’ money, and 95% fell short of specific goals like revenue growth rates or break-even projections. ????Dire numbers like that don’t mean, of course, that people who want to change jobs should rule out startups — they simply need to ask the right questions up front. Kathy Harris, managing director of New York City tech recruiting firm Harris Allied, thinks job seekers have gotten a kind of gold-rush fever from the gargantuan Alibaba IPO, and the company’s subsequent success. Before making the leap to a startup, she suggests asking these questions: ????? How much funding does the company have? Most brand-new companies are launched with money from friends and family, Harris notes, including the founders’ own savings and even their credit cards. Nothing wrong with that, but you need to know the total dollar amount divided by the “burn rate.” “How long can the firm stay in business with its current cash supply?” ????? How does the firm’s product or service fit into its industry? “Is there a real need for what the company is offering? Look at competitors and ask how the new product or service will fit into its market space,” Harris says. “What are the opportunities to generate revenue, and the triggers that will make this company profitable?” A well-thought-out business plan should address all this in detail. Since this startup’s founders are your son’s friends, he should ask to see it. If there is no written business plan, or if it seems skimpy, it’s a sign that these folks are not ready to run a company. Period. |
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