????圖表來源：雅虎財經
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????看到“為何蘋果公司（Apple）的股票會這樣或那樣”之類的標題，你會不會有點煩？ ????我就會。這類標題往往是記者們的一種新聞手法，用來假扮聰慧深刻，具體做法就是將基本沒有什么因果關系的兩件事硬扯在一起，比如蘋果公司的股價在某一天的漲跌，和隨便一則你能想到的自亞洲流出的傳言，某位分析師的觀點，某份來源不明的市場數據等等。 ????但當蘋果公司的股價創下近來新高，尤其是在2013年的慘跌之后，人們總要探究其中的原因。為什么會這樣呢？ ????最本質性的原因就是試圖買入蘋果股票的資金要比想賣出的多。一部分是機構投資，他們把2013年時出于恐慌而撤走的資金再次注入了蘋果公司的股票。一部分是蘋果公司自身所持有的現金，用于回購并作廢公司的一部分股票，其規模在整個資本主義的歷史上前所未有。還有一部分，但并不多，是像你我一樣的散戶投資。好吧，我不是。但你明白我的意思。 ????退一步來看，你應該也知道，股市增長勢頭的改變存在著充分的商業因素。蘋果公司最近的兩份營收報告顯示，在幾個財季的虧損后，公司的銷售業績實現了溫和的正增長。報告中還表明，公司的利潤率有所上升，資本投入不菲，iOS生態系統的指標增長驚人。iTunes/軟件/服務這條增長緩慢但穩定的產品線的收益幾乎追平了Mac電腦。 ????與此同時，蘋果公司的股票已經成了一只股息股，更加吸引那些投機性較低的新投資者。目前其年度股息率為2.1%——據摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凱蒂?休伯蒂表示，如果將蘋果股票的流通股股數減少了9%這一因素考慮在內，其年度股息率便會暴增至十分可觀的8.5%。 ????再退一步，來看看那些漫天飛舞的臆測，你會發現每天的科技新聞頭版上報道的凈是一些官方尚未發布的產品——新iPhone、iWatch、iWallet、iTV、iPatents。其中有一些產品可能很快就會問世，還有一些則可能永遠不會出現。 ????目前坊間臆測都集中在傳聞中蘋果公司將于9月9日舉辦的一場發布會上，屆時蘋果會不會發布一款或多款屏幕尺寸更大的iPhone？有些預測認為，這種規格的蘋果手機有可能創下前所未有的銷售佳績。 ????iPhone在蘋果公司的季度營收中占據了半數以上的份額，所以也不難解釋為什么華爾街會對蘋果的股票表現出如此之大的興趣。 ????我覺得所謂的9月9日的活動純屬無稽之談。蘋果公司沒有就此發表過任何一種可能性的聲明，我顯然也沒有收到任何活動邀請。 ????但是蘋果公司經常會藏起那么一兩手，留作最后的驚喜。我希望那些真正了解實情的人要么是簽訂了保密協議，要么就是被禁止向媒體爆料。 ????以上就是我所知道的一切。你們都聽到了些什么消息？ ????更新：讀者弗雷德?斯坦因寫道： ????我都聽說了什么？沒啥新鮮的。不過我這里有一份清單，列出了官方目前已公布過的未來熱點： ????1）Healthkit 移動應用平臺； ????2）Homekit 智能家居平臺； ????3）Swift語言、METAL技術和64位ARM處理器：這些將在今年帶來定價更高的應用程序（其中有30%將支付給蘋果公司）和更高的iOS系統用戶黏度； ????4）與IBM公司的合作：接下來的幾年里將可輕松創收； ????5）1,300萬像素的攝像頭：用來趕上業內標準潮流，這個配件對數字長焦攝影至關重要。（財富中文網） |
????Don’t you hate these “why Apple shares did such and such” headlines? ????I know I do. They’re too often a journalistic ploy designed to make reporters look smarter than they are by linking two events that rarely have a causal relationship: The behavior of Apple’s shares on any particular day and … you name it … a rumor out of Asia, one analyst’s opinion, a piece of market data of dubious provenance. ????But when Apple hits a new all-time high, especially after the shellacking it took in 2013, the mind craves reasons. Why did this happen? ????The answer that cuts closest to the bone is that there is more money trying to get into the stock than out. Some of that is institutional investment, coming back to Apple after 2013’s panicked flight. Some of that is Apple cash, buying and retiring its own shares at a scale never before seen in the history of capitalism. Some of it — but not much — is retail investment by folks like you and me. Well, not me. But you know what I mean. ????Step back a bit, and you can see that there are solid business reasons for the stock’s momentum to have changed. Apple’s last two earnings reports showed modest positive growth, after several quarters of the other kind. They also showed improved profit margins, heavy capital investment and impressive growth in iOS ecosystem metrics. Revenue from the slow-and-steady line item called iTunes/Software/Services has nearly caught up to Mac sales. ????Meanwhile, Apple has become a dividend stock, which makes it attractive to a new class of less speculative investors. It currently yields an annual dividend of 2.1% — a rate that swells to an effective 8.5%, according to Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty, when you factor in a 9% reduction in the number of outstanding shares. ????Take another step back, to the cliff edge of speculation, and you start to see the line-up of unannounced products that dominate the daily tech headlines: iPhones, iWatches, iWallets, iTVs, iPatents. Some of these things may be coming soon, some may never see the light of day. ????Current speculation centers on a rumored Sept. 9 event where Apple may or may not unveil one or more larger-screen iPhones. Several forecasts suggest that such a phone from Apple might generate record-breaking sales. ????The iPhone is already responsible for more than half of Apple’s quarterly revenue, so you can see why Wall Street’s interest is keen. ????I have no reason to doubt the Sept. 9 date. Apple hasn’t said anything one way or the other, and I certainly haven’t received an invitation. ????But the company often has a surprise or two up its sleeve. And I expect that anybody who really knows what’s coming has either signed a nondisclosure agreement or is prohibited from trading on the news. ????That’s about as much as I know. What have you heard? ????UPDATE: Reader Fred Stein writes: ????What have I heard? Nothing new. But here’s a list of profit catalysts already announced: ????1) Healthkit ????2) Homekit ????3) Swift, METAL, and 64bit ARM — which will enable higher priced Apps (30% to Apple) and iOS stickiness for years ????4) IBM alliance — easy money for years ????5) 13 megapixel camera — A catch-up issue and important for digital telephoto. |
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