廉價iPhone能帶給蘋果多少利潤
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????電信分析師們堅信，除非蘋果（Apple）推出一款廉價手機，否則它將錯失全球數十億尚未購買智能手機的潛在顧客。 ????但是，正如本尼迪克特?埃文斯上周三在《關于廉價版iPhone》（Note on cheap iPhones）一文中所述的那樣，所謂一部“廉價智能手機”怎么定義，人們的看法并不相同。 ????他把智能手機市場細分為4個價格區間：（以下引用原文） ?????0-100美元區間：目前這一市場的主導者包括一些鮮為人知的公司。它們使用聯發科技（Mediatek）、展訊通信（Spreadtrum）等公司的成品芯片。雖然此類智能手機運行安卓系統（Android），使用3G技術，但是它們的內存通常只有256兆，導致用戶體驗極為糟糕。制造工藝和屏幕也乏善可陳。 ?????100-200美元區間：在這個價格區間，開始出現一些知名品牌公司的身影，包括諾基亞Lumia520、小米科技（Xiaomi）的紅米手機和摩托羅拉的MotorolaX，這些手機均能提供無可挑剔的用戶體驗。我把這些手機比喻為汽車中的豐田（Toyota）或大眾（VW）：你清楚你開的的不是寶馬（BMW）或賓利（Bentley），但它們整體上挑不出什么毛病，甚至部分產品非常棒。 ?????200-450美元（左右）區間，中端手機； ?????450-500美元及以上價格區間，高端手機。事實上，還有超高端市場細分。 ????埃文斯指出，當人們提到，蘋果會錯失仍在使用功能型手機的那部分顧客時，其實他們指的是第一個市場價格區間。 ????“這個市場包括200美元以下的個人電腦，商品利潤率極低，用戶體驗也很差，”他指出，“就連三星（Samsung）也不會真正進軍這一市場。” ????第二、第三個價格區間的市場則另當別論。埃文斯認為，蘋果如今可以輕而易舉地推出250-350美元的iPhone，哪怕是喬布斯也會引以為豪的。問題在于，這在財務上值不值。 ????在以下表格中，埃文斯對這些數據進行了分析。 |
????It is an article of faith among telecom analysts that unless Apple makes a cheap iPhone, it will miss out on the billions of potential customers around the world who have not yet bought a smartphone. ????But as Benedict Evans pointed out Wednesday in his Note on cheap iPhones, not everybody agrees on what constitutes a cheap smartphone. ????He divides the market into four segments: (I quote) ?????$50-100 smartphones: currently these are dominated by companies you’ve never heard of using off-the-shelf chips from Mediatek, Spreadtrum and others, and though they run Android and have 3G they often have only 256 meg of RAM, which makes for a pretty poor experience. And the build quality and screens are not great. ?????$100 to (say) $200 – this is where the branded companies start playing. At this price devices like the Lumia 520, the Xiaomi Hongmi and the Motorola X provide an experience that you would not, actually, be unhappy with. I describe these phones as like driving a Toyota or a VW: you know you’re not in a BMW (or a Bentley), but there’s nothing wrong with them at all and some of them are pretty cool. ?????Then, $200-450 (or thereabouts) counts as mid-range, and ?????$450-500 and up counts as premium. Arguably there’s a super-premium segment further up. ????When people talk about Apple losing all those customers still using feature phones, Evans writes, they are actually talking about the first category. ????“This is is the land of the $200 PC — very low margin commodities with a poor user experience,” he writes. “Even Samsung doesn’t really play here.” ????The second and third category are another matter. Evans contends that Apple today could easily make a $250 to $300 iPhone even Steve Jobs would be proud of. The question is whether it would be worth it financially. ????In the spreadsheet copied below, he’s run the numbers. |
來源：本尼迪克特?埃文斯
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????上表顯示，250美元iPhone將引發轟動，年銷量可達4,000萬部，毛利潤可達20億美元。但是，把對蘋果高端手機市場份額不可避免的內部蠶食因素考慮在內，250美元iPhone對蘋果毛利潤的貢獻率只有5%。從盈利角度而言，300美元iPhone將是表現最優秀的產品；但它對蘋果毛利潤的貢獻率也只有7%。 ????埃文斯得出結論：這并不意味著不值得發展廉價版產品，特別是考慮到它能強化iOS生態系統和削弱安卓系統。 ????問題的關鍵在于，選擇權在蘋果手上。它只要想，就可以隨時推出廉價iPhone。（財富中文網） ????譯者：喬樹靜/汪皓 |
????What this shows is that a $250 iPhone would be a blockbuster, selling 40 million units a year and generating $2 billion in gross profit But after factoring in the inevitable cannibalization of Apple’s high-end phones, such a phone would add only 5% to the company’s gross profit. The sweet spot, in terms of the bottom line, is a $300 iPhone, but even that only adds 7% to Apple’s gross profit. ????This doesn’t mean it’s not worth doing, Evans concludes, especially if it strengthens the iOS ecosystem and weakens Android’s. ????The point is, the choice is Apple’s, and it can make it whenever it wants. |
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