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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

土豪金:中國新流行色

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2014年07月30日

蘋果(Apple)公司內部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數百萬用戶中已經有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經營該公司。
香檳色變成了中國智能手機市場最火的顏色。

????我曾在一篇專欄中寫道,如果蘋果(Apple)希望iPhone在中國市場上大賣,就應該堅定不移地出銀色版iPhone。事實證明這是我錯得最離譜的一次。

????這大概也就是一年前的事。當時傳聞蘋果即將推出一款香檳色iPhone,因為金色在中國是身份的象征。我查找了關于各國人色彩偏好的市場調研,還找到了杜邦公司(Dupont)發布的一份圖表,該圖表顯示,在中國銀色汽車最暢銷,而非金色。

????但事實證明,汽車與手機是兩碼事。

????金色版的iPhone5S在中國大獲成功,很快在香港和中國大陸銷售一空。在紐約,購買無鎖版土豪金iPhone5S的買家排起了長隊。很快,在中國的“灰市”,金色版iPhone手機每部需要加價數百美元才能買到。

????蘋果當時就似乎胸有成竹。去年十二月,它終于與全球最大的運營商——中國移動達成了分銷協議。今年二月,中國移動宣布,使用該公司全新4G網絡的手機中,一半以上是iPhone。截至上上周,中國移動的4G網絡用戶已超過1400萬。

????蒂姆?庫克日前向分析師們表示:“中國著實令我們吃驚。我們知道在中國市場的銷售會很強勁,但結果比我們預想的還要好得多。我們的營收(包括零售在內)增長了26%,而如果按銷售的產品數量計,可謂全面飆升,產品銷量的增速高達48%,而市場預期為24%,所以實際增速是市場預期的兩倍。”

????署名“杰克在首爾”(Jake_in_Seoul)的一位駐外美國讀者說:“香檳金版iPhone令蘋果賺得盆滿缽滿,提議推出該模型的員工應該獲得重獎。”

????常讀這個專欄的讀者都知道,“杰克”對亞洲智能手機市場的觀察十分敏銳。今年1月,我們轉發了他從中國發來的一封信,令中國的iPhone故事更生動起來。

????“iPhone在中國沒有占據市場支配地位,但用的人也不少,有錢有勢的人(比如說房地產大亨)肯定都是用iPhone,但出人意料的是,飯店職員甚至面館小妹也可能用著iPhone。購iPhone與否,似乎取決于心態。”

????“在一次閑聊中,我聽到三星(在中國采用其漢字名稱)被人稱作‘中國手機’品牌,太逗了。我懷疑不少人都存在這種誤解,三星肯定對此很困擾。”

????The dumbest column I ever wrote was the one that suggested that if Apple wanted to sell a lot of iPhones in China it should stick with silver.

????This was just about a year ago. Rumors were flying that Apple was about to launch a champagne-gold iPhone because gold was such a prestigious color in China. I went looking for market research on national color preferences, and the closest thing I could find was a Dupont chart that showed that the best-selling automobile color in China was silver, not gold.

????Cars, it turns out, are not the same as phones.

????The gold iPhone 5S was a huge hit in China. It sold out immediately in Hong Kong and the mainland. Customers in New York City buying for export lined up around the block. Gold iPhones were soon commanding mark-ups of several hundred dollar apiece in China’s grey markets.

????Apple, it seems, knew what it was doing. In December it finally cut a distribution deal with China Mobile, the world’s largest carrier. In February, China Mobile announced that iPhones accounted for more than half of the phones on its brand new 4G network. By last week, that network had grown to more than 14 million subscribers.

????“China, honestly was surprising to us,” Tim Cook told analysts last week. “We thought it would be strong but it went well past what we thought. We came in at 26% of revenue growth, including retail and if you look at the units, the unit growth was really off the charts across the board. I found 48% growth that compares to a market estimate of 24%. So growing it two times the market.”

????“Whoever proposed the champagne gold model can’t be rewarded enough for the cascading benefits Apple has enjoyed from it,” writes an American ex-pat who posts here as Jake_in_Seoul.

????Jake, as regulars here know, is a keen observer of the Asian smartphone market. In January we re-posted a letter he wrote from China that adds some color (pardon the pun) to the Chinese iPhone story:

????“iPhones here are not predominant, but are readily seen, certainly in the hands of wealthy and powerful, (e.g., a local real estate tycoon), but also surprisingly owned by the likes of hotel clerks and a remarkable noodle shop girl. Ownership seems to be a state of mind.

????“I was amused in a casual conversation to hear Samsung (known in China by its Chinese/Korean character name San Xing Sanxing = “Three Stars”) referred to as a “Chinese phone”… I suspect this misunderstanding may not be uncommon and hence highly aggravating to Samsung.

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