今日圖表：蘋果應該抓住低端手機市場商機
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????上周四，蘇格蘭皇家銀行（RBC）的阿米特?達萊納尼在一份發給客戶的報告中運用Strategy Analytics的市場研究，對售價300美元的iPhone 5C可能為蘋果（Apple）貢獻多少利潤進行了估算。 ????即便考慮到大幅折扣的iPhone 4，迄今為止，蘋果的銷量也只有2%來自于售價低于300美元的iPhone手機。【相比之下，三星（Samsung）有60%的智能手機銷量來自價格不超過300美元的手機。】 ????達萊納尼認為，這種狀況可能在本周蘋果新品發布會后發生改變：
????“我們相信蘋果將推出一款新手機，開拓低端智能手機市場。我們預計到2014日歷年，這個市場的規模將達到5億美元左右。在我們看來，蘋果應能迅速滲透這個市場，中期內將滲透率提升至15%及之上（我們預計蘋果在高端市場擁有超過40%的市場份額）。 ????“從每股收益角度來看，我們認為，成功推出廉價手機將使得蘋果每股收益在我們預計的2014年日歷年度39.74美元的基礎上增加4.00美元多。以12倍的市盈率計算，這應當使蘋果股價上漲約50美元。我們相信，我們給出的5,600萬部預測是保守的，因為這只相當于低端智能手機市場總銷量的12%。”?（財富中文網） |
????In a note to clients Thursday, RBC's Amit Daryanani used Strategy Analytics' market research to estimate what a $300 iPhone 5C might do to Apple's (AAPL) bottom line. ????Even with the heavily discounted iPhone 4 in the mix, only 2% of Apple's unit sales so far have come from iPhones selling for less than $300. (Samsung, by contrast, gets 60% of its smartphone sales from devices that cost $300 or less.) ????Daryanani thinks that could change after next week's special event: ????"We believe Apple is going to capitalize on the low-end smartphone market by launching a new phone that will address what we consider to be a ~500M total addressable market in CY14E. In our view, AAPL should be able to quickly penetrate this market up to and beyond the 15% mark in the medium-term (we estimate AAPL has 40%+ share in the premium market). ????"From an EPS perspective we believe the Company can add $4.00+ in EPS to our CY14E estimate of $39.74, with a successful launch of an affordable iPhone. On a 12x multiple, this would add roughly $50 to Apple's stock-price. We believe our ~56M unit estimate is conservative given that it represents 12% of the total low-end Smartphone market."? |
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