如果讓鮑爾默執掌蘋果
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????本周一大量報道都在關注史蒂夫?鮑爾默離開微軟（Microsoft）一事。假如只看其中一篇的話，我建議大家跳過卡拉?斯威舍大談此事的八卦文章，因為它比微軟披露這個消息的節奏更輕率。我建議大家直接上本?湯普森的博客stratechery，閱讀其博文《如果讓鮑爾默執掌蘋果》（If Steve Ballmer ran Apple）。 ????在這篇帶有挑釁的博文中，前微軟Windows產品經理湯普森設想，如果鮑爾默成為蘋果的新任首席執行官，他將在今后五年有哪些動作，首先是推出iPhone 5C。
????鮑爾默……將推出我主張的低價iPhone，同時進軍無補貼市場。在企業級市場，鮑爾默不會滿足于那些自己送上門的公司客戶；他還會積極爭取各公司的首席信息官，同時對iPhone做出改變，以適應他們的需求。鮑爾默會擴展iPad產品線，推出多種屏幕尺寸、各種價位的版本，他還將爭取讓全世界每一個學區將該產品標準化，而且態度將遠比現在的蘋果要積極。鮑爾默將設法獲得付款和身份信息，以利用iTunes以及那些與iTunes關聯的信用卡。而在電腦領域，XMac甚至可能成為現實。 ????當然，蘋果（Apple）內部也少不了各種激勵措施。銷售團隊將大力擴充，薪水也會直接與績效掛鉤；產品團隊將疲于奔命地填補目前蘋果產品線漏洞；營銷團隊恨不得把所有人的目光都吸引過來，從高高在上的公司首席信息官到發展中國家的普通百姓，無一遺漏。為了擴大用戶群，蘋果將不惜放低身段，全力迎合中國移動和NTT Docomo這類有特殊要求的運營商。如此一來，蘋果的合作運營商數量將比三星多出一倍甚至兩倍。 ????收入和利潤必將節節高升。 ????湯普森最后一針見血的指出，微軟與蘋果的最大不同點在于，如果鮑爾默執掌蘋果，蘋果將再也無法推出顛覆性產品。 ????湯普森認為部分原因在于克雷?克里斯藤森所提出的“創新者的窘境”——如果一家公司過于關注利潤最大化，那么它將無法推出成功的新產品，因為新產品會沖擊現有的利潤率。而這樣的公司也無法吸引并留住創新者。 ????但是，湯普森指出，蘋果的成功至少證明一點，利潤或是激勵獎金不是公司的核心價值。他寫道：“設計這種事無法量化，用戶體驗就更不用說了。你難道能量化高興和煩惱嗎？” ????在個人消費市場，無法量化的東西才是關鍵所在。你得給消費者驚喜、歡樂，讓他們為之歡呼雀躍。你開發的產品應當令開發人員心向往之，同時還能獲得用戶的信任。個人消費市場充滿了無法量化的東西，微軟的鮑爾默們永遠無法看到這點，當然更無法領會。 |
????If you read only one story Monday morning about Steve Ballmer's departure from Microsoft (MSFT), skip Kara Swisher's gossipy piece about how it happened more precipitously than Microsoft let on and go straight to Ben Thompson's If Steve Ballmer ran Apple on his stratechery blog. ????In this provocative thought experiment, Thompson -- a former Microsoft Windows product manager -- imagines what Apple's new CEO would do over the next five years, starting with the rollout of the iPhone 5C: ????Ballmer .. would push out the low cost version I advocated and attack non-subsidized markets. Ballmer would do more than catch enterprise accounts that fall in his lap; he would aggressively court CIOs and make changes to the iPhone to accommodate them. Ballmer would expand the iPad range to multiple screen sizes and price points, and would push for every school district in the world to standardize on them, far more aggressively than Apple is today. Ballmer would leverage iTunes, and all those credit cards, by making a play for payments and identity. As for computers, well, the XMac might even become a reality. ????There would, of course, be handsome incentives to make this happen. Apple's sales team would be hugely expanded, and their pay directly connected to the above becoming a reality. The product teams would be pedal to the metal filling in all the holes in Apple's current lineup, and marketing would be aggressively targeting everyone from CIOs to developing nations. Apple would give both China Mobile and NTT Docomo whatever concessions necessary to gain access to their customers, and Apple's carrier base would double, perhaps even triple to Samsung's level. ????The revenue and profits would flow. ????Thompson's punchline -- which gets to the heart of the difference between Microsoft and Apple (AAPL) -- is that if Ballmer ran Apple, the company would never again ship a disruptive new product. ????Part of this he attributes to the innovator's dilemma -- Clay Christensen's idea that a company focused on maximizing profits can't pursue a successful new product because of its impact on existing profit margins. Part of it is the kind of people who are attracted to and stay with a company like that. ????But if Apple's success has proved anything, Thompson suggests, it's that measurables like profits and incentive bonuses aren't the half of it. "Things like design can't be measured," he writes, "nor can user experience. How do you price delight, or discount annoyance?" ????In the consumer market, it's the immeasurables that matter. It's the ability to surprise and delight, and create evangelists. It's about creating something that developers demand access to, and that consumers implicitly trust. The consumer market is about everything you can't measure, everything Microsoft's legion of mini-Ballmer's can't see and will never appreciate. |
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