惠普漲跌可能影響戴爾競價
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????上周一，我與一位銀行家通了電話。這位銀行家堅持認為，邁克爾?戴爾和銀湖資本（Silver Lake Partners）收購戴爾公司（Dell）的交易不可能以每股13.65美元的價格成交。他覺得，自從戴爾董事會接受這個價格以來，市場情況已經改變了很多，兩個月來惠普（Hewlett-Packard）股價大漲就是明證。 ????兩相比較，不僅股東們會拒絕現有出價，也有助于黑石集團（The Blackstone Group）和卡爾?伊坎（Carl Icahn）等競爭對手的更高出價獲得銀行融資。 ????最近的代理委托書顯示，銀湖資本在2月4日提交了每股13.65美元的出價。在此之前，已有多次私下密商和外部活動，包括彭博（Bloomberg）報道稱，一項交易正在進行中。 ????當日，惠普股價開盤報16.31美元。昨日，這只股票開盤報23.73美元，漲幅近45.5%。 ????如今，不只是我聯系的這位銀行家認為，戴爾股價應比2月4日的價格高45.5%，特別是考慮到幾周前就已經傳出戴爾可能被全面收購的消息。但在消息傳出（1月14日）前，戴爾的股價走勢也會跟惠普如出一轍嗎？倘若如此，上周二戴爾的開盤價應該達到15.71美元。 ????然后，上周二早間有消息稱，高盛（Goldman Sachs）將惠普評級降至“賣出”。惠普股價下跌超過6%，截至本文撰寫時該股報21.90美元。用前面這位銀行家的類比法，戴爾也應被降級。 ????它意味著自戴爾可能被全盤收購的消息泄露以來，惠普股價累計僅上漲了33%。如果把這一輪新的漲幅套用在戴爾股票上，它當前的股價應該達到14.50美元。 ????這個價格顯然高于銀湖資本當前每股13.65美元的出價，比黑石的每股14.25美元出價也高一點（但比卡爾?伊坎的出價略低一點）。但這是下行軌跡的反映，不是上行。 ????由戴爾有些股東可能希望看到更高的出價，還有些人指望大批現有股東否決當前的交易。對這些人而言，這就會產生一個問題。如果惠普眼下的經歷只是一個小插曲，那還不是什么大問題。但如果股價下滑持續一周或者更長的時間，而眼下只是一個開始，那么每股13.65美元的出價或許會變成最好的選擇。 ????譯者：早稻米 |
????Yesterday I spoke with a banker who insisted that Michael Dell and Silver Lake Partners would never get their Dell (DELL) buyout done at $13.65 per share. He felt that the market had changed too much since the offer was accepted by Dell's board, as evidenced by Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) stock surge over the past two months. ????Not only would the comparison spur shareholders to reject the existing offer, but it also would help rivals like The Blackstone Group (BX) and Carl Icahn secure bank financing for higher bids. ????Silver Lake arrived at the $13.65 per share figure on February 4, according to a recent proxy statement. This was after several machinations and outside events, including an earlier Bloomberg report that a deal was in the works. ????That day, Hewlett-Packard stock opened at $16.31 per share. Yesterday it opened at $23.73 per share, or nearly 45.5% higher. ????Now not even my banker is suggesting that Dell would be trading 45.5% higher than it was on Feb. 4 -- particularly given that news of a possible buyout had leaked several weeks earlier. But might it not at least have mirrored HP since before the leak (Jan. 14)? In that case, Dell would have opened today at around $15.71 per share. ????Then came word this morning that Goldman Sachs (GS) had downgraded HP to "sell." Company shares fell more than 6%, and as of this writing are trading at $21.90. Using the banker's analogy, Dell also would have been downgraded. ????What this means is that HP stock now is up only 33% from where it was before news of a Dell buyout leaked. And if you apply that new premium to Dell, its current stock price would be $14.50 per share. ????That's obviously higher than the current Silver Lake offer of $13.65 per share, and even a bit above the $14.25 per share that Blackstone has indicated (albeit lower than Carl Icahn's $15 suggestion). But it's reflective of a downward trajectory, rather than of an upward one. ????This could prove problematic for Dell shareholders who are counting on a superior offer, or on large existing shareholders to kill the current deal. If today's HP experience is just a hiccup, then no big deal. If it becomes the beginning of a slide that lasts a week or more, however, then $13.65 may begin to look like the best possible option. |
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