6問戴爾私有化交易
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????昨天我一直在研究戴爾公司（Dell）最近的競購案（還能有其他事嗎？），但是今天醒來腦海里涌出的問題比答案還多。下面就是我想到的六大主要問題。呃，為了表述清楚起見，我會把邁克爾?戴爾稱為“邁克爾”——因為在寫作時要把他本人和與他同名的公司區分開來。 ????1、為什么黑石集團（Blackstone）不給邁克爾?戴爾打電話？昨天有傳言稱，邁克爾?戴爾準備和黑石集團坐下來談判。考慮到邁克爾最初向戴爾公司特別委員會所做的承諾，他這么做并不讓人驚訝。但據我所知，黑石在詢價階段從未主動接觸過邁克爾——因為我們都知道，黑石曾通過秘密渠道聯系了戴爾的潛在首席執行官接班人，比如馬克?赫德和麥克?凱普拉斯。所以不難想見，他們碰頭會有多尷尬。可能在黑石看來，邁克爾和銀湖投資（Silver Lake）純屬穿連襠褲的，所以不會跟他談，但怎么一個投資意向就改變了這一格局呢？ ????再者，如果黑石沒有讓邁克爾參與的話，那它是怎么設法融資的呢？我不是指邁克爾的展期股份，而是指從銀行融來的錢，而這些銀行未必能和一支友善的管理團隊見面。記得我早就暗示過，這種局面可能會導致準惡意收購。呃…… ????2. 交易跟戴夫?約翰遜到底是什么關系？戴夫曾在戴爾主管并購業務，今年初才加盟黑石。坊間關于他有兩種說法。一種是，他是讓邁克爾?戴爾加入黑石團隊的關鍵人物；另一種是，邁克爾?戴爾再也不想和他有任何生意往來。換言之，他是在推動戴爾公司做好出售的準備后，才高高興興地離職去另謀高就的嗎？還是說，他是被掃地出門的？這真是個“看你是在跟誰說”的情況，對此，我也沒有明確答案。 ????3. 一個陰謀論揭穿另一個陰謀論？黑石是仍受到聯邦陰謀案監管的四大私募股權基金之一。這個案子指控稱，金融危機發生前，共有10家公司（包括銀湖在內）在近24個并購案中以不正當手段操縱交易。現在指控的范圍縮小了，主要 關注“越級交易”的行為，或是在其他公司已經簽署了獨家協議后還繼續競價的行為。所以，現在有種說法稱，黑石對戴爾出價就足以證明它肯定會越級交易。說實話，這種說法沒有根據。不過考慮一下這種可能性倒有點意思。畢竟，黑石到現在為止還沒有花一分錢呢。 ????4、伊坎想找個合作伙伴？有傳言稱，投機大亨卡爾?伊坎對與黑石合作持“開放”態度。他確實如此。他 在相關新聞里表示，他對舉辦“100美元免單日”的當地銀行同樣持“開放”態度。 ????5、戴爾公司打算怎么處理代理委托書？據說代理委托書明天或周四就會簽署。就像我之前說過的，這會是充滿緊張氣氛的一幕。一方面，邁克爾需要向股東證明，戴爾面臨重大挑戰，他本人正為此承受著巨大風險。另一方面，他又不能過于悲觀，以免嚇壞客戶和員工。我猜測，這份代理委托書將至少包含幾項微妙的條款，專門針對競價對手對公司的理解（伊坎算法，第二章）。 |
????I spent much of yesterday working on Dell (what else?), but woke up with more questions than answers. So my top six are below. Oh, and for the sake of clarity, I'm now just going to refer to Michael Dell as "Michael" -- since writing intelligibly about both him and his eponymous company has become a bit confusing. ????1. Why didn't Blackstone call Michael Dell? There were reports yesterday that Michael Dell is planning to sit down with The Blackstone Group (BX). Not too surprising, based on Michael's original promises to Dell's (DELL) special committee. But my understanding is that Blackstone never reached out to Michael during the "go-shop" process – while we do know that it used back-channels to contact possible CEO replacements like Mark Hurd and Mike Capellas. So imagine how awkward this meeting is going to be. Maybe Blackstone viewed Michael and Silver Lake as too tied at the hip to have such talks, but how does an indication of interest change that? ????Moreover, if Blackstone doesn't get Michael's participation, how does it manage to get financing? I don't mean his rolled-over shares – but money from banks who won't necessarily be able to meet with a friendly management team. Remember when I originally suggested this whole situation could lead to a quasi-hostile bid. Well… ????2. What's the deal with Dave Johnson? There are two schools of thought on David Johnson, the former Dell M&A boss who joined Blackstone early this year. Either he is the lynchpin for getting Michael Dell to join Blackstone's team, or he's a guy with whom Michael Dell has no interest in doing business ever again. In other words, did he leave happily for a new opportunity after getting Dell Inc. ready to sell? Or was he pushed out? This really is a "depends who you speak to" sort of situation, which leaves me without a definitive answer. ????3. A conspiracy theory to debunk a conspiracy theory? Blackstone is one of four private equity firms still subject to a federal conspiracy case, which originally alleged that 10 firms (including Silver Lake) had rigged bids on nearly two dozen pre-crisis buyouts. The narrowed complaint now concerns the issue of deal-jumping, or making rival bids after another firm already has a signed proprietary agreement. So, there is a theory floating out there that Blackstone is bidding on Dell to prove that it will, indeed, jump a deal. To be clear, there is no evidence to support this theory. But it's fun to think about. After all, Blackstone hasn't really spent any money (yet). ????4. Icahn wants to partner? There are reports that Carl Icahn is "open" to a partnership with Blackstone. Well of course he is. In related news, I'm open to my local bank branch holding "free $100 bill day." ????5. How does Dell handle the proxy? Word is that the proxy is coming tomorrow or Thursday. As I mentioned yesterday, it will be a tightrope act. On one hand, Michael needs to convince shareholders that Dell faces huge challenges ahead and that he's taking enormous personal risk. On the other hand, he can't be so dire as to freak out customers and employees. My guess is it will include at least a few subtle jabs at the rival bidders' understanding of the company (Icahn math, part II). |
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