好運2013：美國經濟騰飛暢想
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????睡夢中，每個人都能找出10條理由來證明2013年美國企業和美國經濟將處于困境。我也能。但一味唱衰經濟并不是什么好習慣；錯過經濟發展高峰至少和錯過經濟低谷同樣危險。那就讓我們往好處想想，想象一幅還沒有任何人提到過的美好圖畫。這種情況可能出現嗎？我無從回答。那它看上去靠譜嗎？絕對有戲。假設到2013年底美國經濟增長率達到4%，個人收入增多，失業率也處于較低水平，那么促成這一局面的因素將包括以下這些： ????石油和天然氣行業改革對整體經濟的有利影響不斷擴大。能源信息署剛剛公布的展望報告稱，20年來一直呈下降狀態的美國石油產量陡然上升，而且在2020年之前將保持增長態勢。天然氣產量的迅猛提升將至少持續30年。受此影響，工業已經開始復蘇。陶氏化學（Dow）和三菱（Mitsubishi）等化工及塑料制造商正在美國各地新建工廠。而過去幾年美國化工及塑料行業一直在減員，這樣的轉變讓人甚為吃驚。機械及鋼鐵公司鐵姆肯（Timken Co.）正在擴建俄亥俄州的石油天然氣特種鋼材冶煉廠。由于許多行業產出增多，鐵路方面也在增加運力。最有利的一點是，大部分新產品都將用于出口。它將縮小美國的貿易逆差，創造就業并推動美國經濟向前發展。 ????盡管第112屆國會堆積起來的火藥味讓議員們戰戰兢兢，但第113屆國會最終在三個最為關鍵的方面采取了行動：修訂稅法——下調稅率、堵住漏洞；讓醫改具有可持續性以及調整移民法以便吸引并留住世界上最頂尖和最有抱負的人才。 ????成功連任后，奧巴馬總統不再羨慕前任比爾?克林頓在國內外的響亮名聲。他希望作為一名政治家而名垂青史，而不是一名革新派英雄。他支持修訂稅法，強調這是公平之舉；他說醫保改革不是壓縮而是節約；他協商推動非法移民合法化的進程，以作為移民政策改革的一部分。在兩黨首腦簇擁之下簽署重大法令的照片讓奧巴馬成了一名實干家，而非極左派斗士。 ????《平價醫療法案》（The Affordable Care Act）的生效幾乎沒有遭遇任何阻力，原因是政府意識到如果在實施方面出現重大問題，經濟就可能一蹶不振。在這項法案中，許多要求用人單位似乎都很難甚至無法做到。比如，企業提供的保險必須在員工的承受范圍之內，而員工的承受能力則是按家庭收入的百分比來衡量，這個數字用人單位根本無從知曉。國稅局（IRS）已經表示，企業可以暫時根據員工的年收入來計算其承受能力，而且不必為員工的被扶養贍養人提供平價醫保。如果做出更多類似的解釋，這項無比艱巨的工作對用人單位和工薪族來說就能變得容易一些。 ????美國證監會（SEC）和其他監管部門終于不再為《多德-弗蘭克法案》（Dodd-Frank Act）的規則制定工作尋找借口，它將掃清籠罩著金融市場的霧靄。律師事務所Davis Polk的最新統計顯示，在按照該法案制定規則方面，證監會有60%的工作未能如期完成；需要頒布的規定中還有65%尚無定論。消除這個不確定因素將解放金融市場，而金融市場是美國經濟中最有力的引擎之一。 ????經濟蒸蒸日上，就業水平開始上升。這會促使美國政府讓極度延伸的失業救濟政策回歸常態。這種特別救濟的時間長達99個星期，雖然這讓很多人得到了幫助，但也因為鼓勵坐享其成而干擾了就業市場，只是從政治角度而言這樣的觀點并不正確。失業救濟回復正常水平又將讓美國經濟的另一大動力——靈活的就業市場得到解放。 |
????In your sleep you can name 10 reasons 2013 will be lousy for business and the economy. So can I. But analyzing only the downside is a bad habit; missing a boom is at least as dangerous as missing a bust. So let's imagine the good-news scenario that absolutely no one is talking about. Is it likely? I dunno. Plausible? Absolutely. Here's what gets us to a 4% growth rate, rising incomes, and low unemployment by year-end: ????The revolution in American oil and gasincreasingly spreads its benefits through the economy. Our crude-oil production, after declining for the past 20 years, is suddenly rocketing and will keep doing so for the rest of the decade, says the Energy Information Administration's just-released outlook. Natural-gas production will boom for at least the next three decades. A resulting industrial renaissance is already under way. Chemical and plastics makers -- Dow (DOW), Mitsubishi, and others -- are building new plants around the country, a stunning turnaround for an industry that has been shutting U.S. plants for years. The Timken Co. (TKR) is expanding a mill in Ohio to make specialty steels for the oil and gas industry. Railroads are adding cars to haul the rising output of many industries. Best of all, much of the new production will be exported -- shrinking our trade deficit and bringing jobs and GDP growth to the U.S. ????The 113th Congress, spooked by the loathing rightly heaped on the 112th, finally acts on its three most important priorities: reforming the tax code by lowering rates and closing loopholes, making Medicare sustainable, and fixing immigration laws to attract and keep the world's best and most ambitious. ????President Obama, finished with running for office and envying Bill Clinton's extraordinary stature domestically and globally, decides to go for a statesman legacy rather than a progressive-hero legacy. He gets behind tax reform by emphasizing its fairness; stresses that Medicare isn't being cut but saved; and negotiates a procedure for legalizing illegals as part of immigration reform. Photos of him signing landmark legislation with leaders of both parties behind him build his image as a pragmatic doer rather than a far-left class warrior. ????The Affordable Care Act takes effect mostly glitch-free as the administration realizes that major implementation problems could tank the economy. The law is filled with requirements that seem difficult or impossible for employers to meet; for example, employers must offer "affordable" insurance to workers, but affordability is defined as a percentage of an employee's household income, which employers have no way of knowing. The IRS has announced that for now employers can base calculations on employees' W-2 income and needn't offer affordable insurance for workers' dependents. More such lenient interpretations will ease a hellacious process for employers and workers. ????The SEC and other regulators finally stop making excuses on Dodd-Frank rulemaking, clearing the fog that sits over financial markets. The administration has missed 60% of the rulemaking deadlines imposed by the law, says the latest tally by the Davis Polk law firm; 65% of the total required rulemakings still haven't been finalized. Reducing that uncertainty will liberate one of America's greatest economic strengths, its capital markets. ????The economy builds steam, and hiring picks up. In response, Washington lets hyperextended unemployment benefits revert to normal duration. Those special 99-week benefits, while helpful to many, also distort labor markets by encouraging nonwork, though it's politically incorrect to say so. Getting back to normal frees up another of our greatest strengths, our flexible labor markets. |
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