美國經(jīng)濟病根在于政策的不確定性
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????當CEO們對我說，他們關(guān)心的頭等大事是不確定性時，和許多人一樣，我的第一反應(yīng)是懷疑。拜托，人生本來就充滿了不確定性。難道當下這一刻真的有什么不同嗎？ ????事實上的確如此：經(jīng)濟的不確定性，特別是政策的不確定性，正處于多年來最嚴重的時刻。如果你很想知道美國經(jīng)濟為什么幾近停滯，或者想了解數(shù)百萬工人為什么無法找到工作，非同尋常的不確定性就是答案的重要組成部分——或許是最大的組成部分吧。 ????高度的不確定性創(chuàng)造出了一種癱瘓循環(huán)，這就是我們目前所處的境地。決策者們不知道將發(fā)生什么事情，只好袖手旁觀，美聯(lián)儲（the Federal Reserve）近期的表現(xiàn)就是這樣。會議紀要顯示，在最近一次聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會（Federal Open Market Committee）會議上，“幾乎所有的與會者”都表示，目前的經(jīng)濟前景比過去20年更加不確定；這個委員會沒有采取任何行動，道瓊斯指數(shù)隨之跌落。會議紀要還顯示，商界領(lǐng)袖告訴委員會成員，“業(yè)已加大的不確定性”導(dǎo)致他們“暫時擱置潛在的投資項目，直至這種不確定性得以解決。”那么，這些商界領(lǐng)袖所不確定的究竟是什么？答案是政府的政策。一項由斯坦福大學(xué)（Stanford University）和芝加哥大學(xué)（University of Chicago）經(jīng)濟學(xué)家創(chuàng)造的政策不確定性指數(shù)可以支持他們的觀點，該指數(shù)顯示，近幾個月的政策不確定性比過去25年要高出很多。 ????最令商界領(lǐng)袖感到不確定的是稅收和監(jiān)管問題。這些事情總是多變的，但潛在的波動有可能讓人頭暈?zāi)垦！?月，最高法院作出支持奧巴馬醫(yī)改方案（Obamacare）的裁定。隨后，共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人和共和黨國會領(lǐng)袖許諾稱，倘若他們贏得11月份的總統(tǒng)大選，他們將廢除這項方案。沒錯，如今的情形是，一項針對世界最大經(jīng)濟體的最大經(jīng)濟部門推出的有史以來規(guī)模最大、將對這個國家的每位雇主和個人都產(chǎn)生影響的監(jiān)管計劃要么將作為法律持續(xù)存在，要么將消失得無影無蹤。在這種情況下，誰還會有心思規(guī)劃未來的事情呢？ ????與之類似的情形還包括今年年底將出現(xiàn)的“財政懸崖（fiscal cliff）”——聯(lián)邦開支的強制性削減和布什減稅政策到期這一致命組合。即便假設(shè)國會最終避免了聯(lián)邦財政墜入萬劫不復(fù)的深淵，也沒有人知道這一幕的具體情形。著眼于短期的修復(fù)措施（這是迄今為止最有可能出現(xiàn)的結(jié)果）將對促使經(jīng)濟增長毫無助益，原因是，這種措施會讓商界人士不知道接下來會發(fā)生什么事情。投資和雇傭并不是什么短期決策。哈佛大學(xué)（Harvard University）教授阿布迪韋利?阿里得出這樣的研究結(jié)論：“信心的缺失，以及對經(jīng)濟政策穩(wěn)定性的質(zhì)疑，迫使投資者推遲資本投資……不可能每次政府扭轉(zhuǎn)經(jīng)濟政策時，他們也跟著撤銷固定資本投資的決策。” ????它不僅僅涉及到經(jīng)濟政策。不確定性正在帶來切實的痛楚。據(jù)超黨派的國會預(yù)算辦公室（Congressional Budget Office）預(yù)測，僅僅財政懸崖引發(fā)的不確定性就足以使美國下半年的經(jīng)濟增速減少0.5個百分點。在一個增長率不到2%的經(jīng)濟體中，這無疑是一個大麻煩，這意味著數(shù)十億美元將無法用來雇傭新員工。 ????那么，誰是罪魁禍首呢？極端對立的國會堪稱一臺生產(chǎn)不確定性的機器。奧巴馬醫(yī)改方案在國會兩院獲得通過時，沒有一個共和黨議員投贊成票；當眾議院最近就廢除這項法律進行投票表決時，與239位共和黨議員一道投支持票的民主黨議員也僅有區(qū)區(qū)5位。這無疑是向商界人士傳遞了一個清晰的訊息：不要對任何一項未獲得兩黨實質(zhì)性支持的法案抱有指望了。這么說來，意義重大的法案似乎就不再有可能在國會通過了。 ????CEO們經(jīng)常向我提及的另一件事情是，政策的確切內(nèi)容或許不如其可預(yù)見性那般重要。如果他們知道規(guī)則，他們將根據(jù)規(guī)則，謀求商場制勝之道。只有當他們不知道規(guī)則的時候（比如現(xiàn)在），他們才會左右為難。在3月份之前，拜托這次總統(tǒng)大選的獲勝一方（無論他們是誰）向美國民眾表明，他們是國之領(lǐng)袖，而不是亂發(fā)脾氣的小孩。在此之前（誰曉得呢，或許過了那時也不一定），我們將無所適從，無處可去。 ????譯者：任文科 |
????When CEOs tell me that their No. 1 concern is uncertainty, as a great many do, my first reaction is skepticism. Please. Life is uncertain. Is this moment really different? ????Actually it is: Economic uncertainty, especially policy uncertainty, is greater than it has been in many years. And if you're wondering why the U.S. economy is barely moving or why millions of workers can't find jobs, extraordinary uncertainty is a major part -- maybe the largest part -- of the answer. ????High uncertainty creates a loop of paralysis, and that's what we're in right now. Policymakers have no idea what's going to happen, so they sit on their hands, as the Federal Reserve did recently. "Nearly all participants" in the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting said that the economic outlook was more uncertain than it had been over the past 20 years, according to the minutes; the committee took no action, and the Dow dropped. The minutes also reported that business leaders were telling committee members that "heightened uncertainty" had led them "to put potential investment projects on hold until the uncertainty is resolved." And what were those business leaders uncertain about? Government policy. An index of policy uncertainty created by economists at Stanford and the University of Chicago backs their view, showing that policy uncertainty has been much higher in recent months than during the previous 25 years. ????The business leaders were most uncertain about tax and regulatory issues. Those things are always changeable, but the potential swings could make you dizzy. After the Supreme Court upheld Obamacare in June, Mitt Romney and Republican congressional leaders promised to repeal it if they win the election in November. So the biggest-ever regulation of the largest sector of the world's largest economy, affecting every employer and individual in the country, either will continue as the law of the land or will disappear. Who can even think about planning in those circumstances? ????It's similar with the fiscal cliff at year-end: the killer combination of mandatory cuts in federal spending and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts. Even assuming that Congress averts a plunge over the edge, no one knows how it will happen. A short-term fix, by far the likeliest outcome, will do nothing to get the economy moving because it leaves businesspeople wondering what comes next. Investment and hiring decisions are not short-term. Research by Abdiweli M. Ali of Harvard concluded, "Lack of confidence and skepticism about the stability of economic policies force investors to postpone capital investment ... They cannot undo decisions about fixed capital every time the government reverses its economic policy." ????This isn't just economic theory. Uncertainty is creating real suffering. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that uncertainty about the fiscal cliff alone could reduce U.S. economic growth by 0.5% in the second half. In an economy growing at less than 2%, that's a lot, representing billions of dollars that won't be available to hire people. ????Who's to blame? A hyperpolarized Congress is an uncertainty-generating machine. Obamacare was enacted without a single Republican vote in either chamber; when the House voted recently to repeal the law, only five Democrats voted with 239 Republicans. The message to businesspeople: Don't count on anything that passes without substantial bipartisan support. And little of significance seems to be enacted that way anymore. ????Another thing CEOs often tell me is that the precise content of policy may be less important than its predictability. If they know the rules, they'll play to win. It's when they don't know the rules, like now, that they get stuck. Give the election's winners, whoever they are, until March to show that they're leaders rather than kids throwing tantrums. Until then -- and who knows, maybe beyond -- we're going nowhere fast. |
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