分析人士冷對戴爾私有化傳聞
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????自彭博社（Bloomberg）報道戴爾公司（Dell Inc.）與兩家私募股權公司就收購事宜進行談判后，戴爾股價今日大漲。但是筆者認為戴爾私有化并非易事。 ????今天開盤時，戴爾市值不足190億美元，但是現在其市值已經超過210億美元。因此，它的收購價可能至少為230億美元。 ????就算我們視金錢如糞土，假設私募股權公司只需承諾出資35%，它也相當于一張80億美元的股權支票，或者在邁克爾?戴爾結轉其2.73億支股票中的大部分之后，額外籌集略少于50億美元的資金。考慮到目前最高基金的規模大約為100億美元（基金公司一般不愿意，而且明令禁止把基金10%以上的資金投入單一的某一家公司），因此，如果只有一兩家私募股權公司參與收購，這個金額將過于龐大。所以，除有限合伙人的大型聯合投資外，至少還需要三家公司參與。而有能力參與其中的私募股權公司總共也只有十家左右。 ????這在2007年聽起來是合理的，但在2013年卻是另外一回事。因為許多大型交易均以失敗告終，而且幾乎所有的參股企業都成了價格壟斷訴訟的被告。盡管投資公司強烈否認存在任何不道德行為，但是，這并不意味著他們愿意共同參與近年來最大規模的融資收購案，從而使自己再次站在風口浪尖之上。另外，近幾年來，擁有100億美元資金的公司數量已呈下降之勢。 ????不過，我們可以假設通過某種方法來解決股權問題。或許邁克爾?戴爾擁有處于危險邊緣的大型主權財富基金。現在，只需要尋找大約150億美元的融資。目前，債務市場非常低迷，僅有少數幾個財團能滿足這一融資需求。即使在所謂的私募股權 “黃金時代”，150億美元+杠桿融資也非常罕見。如今，沒有人要銀行家在頁巖氣項目上下賭注；但他們把數十億美元投入了個人計算機市場。原因之一在于，個人計算機市場的投入非常劃算。 ????誠然，戴爾的資產負債表上有大量現金（最近一次計算的金額為110億美元），有助于減輕銀行家的恐慌心理。但是，與此同時，戴爾還有40多億美元的長期債務需要再融資。 ????“我認為，這筆交易在挑戰現實的極限，”彭博社報道后，一位技術型私募股權公司的高管向筆者解釋道。“雖然這筆交易有可能發生，但我不會抱太大期望。” ????譯者：喬樹靜/汪皓 |
????Dell Inc. (DELL) stock is spiking today on a Bloomberg report that the company is in talks with two private equity firms about being acquired. My gut take is that this would be very, very difficult. ????Dell opened trading today with a market cap just shy of $19 billion, and now is well north of $21 billion. So the buyout likely would have to be for at least $23 billion. ????Then let's be ridiculously generous and assume that the private equity firms only have to put together a 35% equity commitment. That's an $8 billion equity check, or just under $5 billion after Michael Dell rolls over most of his 273 million shares. Way too big a number for one or two private equity firms to do alone, given that the top fund sizes now are only around $10 billion (and firms are loathe -- and often contractually prohibited -- from committing more than 10% of a fund into any one company). So you'd probably need a minimum of three firms participating, alongside large co-investments from their limited partners. And that would be three firms out of a universe of less than a dozen. ????Sounds reasonable in 2007, but not in 2013. Many of those big club deals were losers, and almost all of the participating firms currently are defendants in a related price-fixing lawsuit. The firms all strongly deny any wrongdoing, but that doesn't mean they want to draw new attention to themselves by teaming up on the largest leveraged buyout in years. Moreover, the number of firms with $10 billion-ish funds has declined over the past few years. ????But let's assume the equity can be somehow worked out. Perhaps Michael Dell has some large sovereign wealth fund on the line. Now you need to find around $15 billion of leveraged financing. The debt markets are deep, but this ask is a few leagues below that. Even during the so-called "Golden Era" of private equity, $15 billion+ in leveraged financing was an extreme rarity. And bankers aren't being asked to bet on shale gas here; they're being asked to commit billions to the personal computer market. There's a reason this thing trades pretty cheap. ????Yes, it is true that Dell has a crazy amount of cash on its balance sheet ($11 billion or so at last count), which should help alleviate some banker fears. But, at the same time, it also has more than $4 billion in existing long-term debt that would need to be refinanced. ????"I think it's stretching the bounds of reality," one tech-focused private equity exec explained to me after the Bloomberg report came out. "It's possible, but I wouldn't hold my breath." |
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