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專欄 - Geoff Colvin

三大絕招對抗經濟蕭條

Geoff Colvin 2012年09月20日

杰奧夫·科爾文(Geoff Colvin)為《財富》雜志高級編輯、專欄作家。美國在管理與領導力、全球化、股東價值創造等方面最犀利也是最受尊重的評論員之一。擁有紐約大學斯特恩商學院MBA學位,哈佛大學經濟學榮譽學位。
面對經濟蕭條、悲觀情緒蔓延,智慧的公司自有良策和勇氣。它們順應變化,著眼長遠,在經濟低迷時期保持了蓬勃發展的勢頭。

????

明尼阿波利斯的通用磨坊(General Mills)總部

????經濟蕭條已變成一種威脅。歐洲債務危機、美國財政懸崖、中國經濟放緩,接踵而至的壞消息足以奪去所有人的希望,隱隱地削弱令企業家們時常保持振作的天生樂觀主義精神。

????頂住!事實是,即便是在今天這樣動蕩的經濟環境下,仍然有些公司仍取得了巨大的成功。如果我們能順勢而變,實現公司的成長和成功還是很有可能的。下面三項策略可以幫助這些智慧的公司掌握主動。

????管理價值——而不是每股收益、息稅折攤前收益(Ebitda)、毛利潤率、收入、現金,也不是其他指標。這一點聽起來顯而易見,但在公司困難時,經理們很容易采取破壞價值的舉措。比如,根據會計規則,研發和市場營銷開支巨大,只要削減(要削減并不難),就可以公布利潤增長。誰不希望當下的高利潤呢?但事實上,這些成本都是投資,能帶來多年的回報,削減它們就是破壞價值。

????手機芯片制造商高通(Qualcomm )深知這一點。本輪經濟衰退期間,高通的利潤繼2008年下降后,2009年大幅下滑——但公司在整個下行期和此后每年都在增加研發投入,有時增加幅度還不小。認為極度短視的投資者會懲罰這類做法的說法并不成立,因為高通股價已連續上漲超過了三年。

????其他公司也有不同的價值管理方式。當所在行業勉強維持,當信貸市場遭受重創時,英特爾(Intel)投入了數十億美元建設新的工廠。可口可樂公司(Coca-Cola)從未放松過品牌建設。如今,這些公司都在蓬勃發展。

????持續發展人力資本。所有公司都聲稱“員工是我們最重要的資產”,但真正能做到的很少。困難時期,大多數公司都會放松對員工領導力的培養。培訓需要錢,將大有潛力的經理派去發展性項目,感覺有點奢侈,或許可以等到境況好些時再說。但一流的公司都知道,人力資本是企業最有價值的資產,也是最稀缺的資源,無論什么企業都一樣。看看展翅高飛的IBM吧,它在最新的《財富》全球領導力培養排行榜上名列榜首。IBM從未考慮過要縮減其企業全球服務志愿隊(Corporate Service Corps),一直將來自全世界的優秀員工組隊送去與一些當地組織合作,解決當地的問題。IBM前首席執行官彭明盛總是喜歡說,將IBM稱作硬件、軟件或服務公司是錯誤的,“我們是一家人的公司”。另一個例子是通用磨坊(General Mills),它在競爭激烈的食品行業依然蓬勃發展。通用磨坊著名的高要求領導力文化毫不動搖,并在Glassdoor.com最新評出的25家最難入職公司名單中排名第21位。

????Gloom has become a menace. The drumbeat of distressing news -- Europe, the fiscal cliff, China -- is enough to rob anyone of hope. It's a nasty, insidious force that's undermining the native optimism that buoys up businesspeople everywhere.

????Resist! The reality is that even in today's uncertain economy, some companies are winning big. Growth and success are always possible if we adapt to the times. Three strategies are helping smart companies dominate.

????They manage for value -- not for EPS, Ebitda, gross margin, revenue, cash, or anything else. That sounds obvious, but in difficult times, managers get seduced into value-destroying moves. For example, accounting rules say that R&D and marketing are expenses, so if you cut them -- and they're easy to cut -- reported profit jumps. Who doesn't want higher profits now? But in reality those costs are investments that pay off for years, so cutting them destroys value.

????A company that understands that is Qualcomm (QCOM), maker of the chips that power mobile phones. In the recession its profits fell in 2008, then fell sharply in 2009 -- yet the companyincreased R&D, sometimes substantially, every year through the downturn and beyond. The complaint that mindlessly short-term-obsessed investors punish such behavior just isn't valid; Qualcomm's stock has been surging for more than three years.

????Other companies manage for value in other ways. Intel (INTC) launched billions of dollars in new plant construction when its industry was on life support and credit markets were traumatized. Coca-Cola (KO) never let up on brand building. Those companies are thriving.

????They keep developing human capital. Every company claims that "people are our most important asset," but few mean it. In tough times most companies slack off on leadership development. Training costs money, and moving high-potential managers into developmental assignments feels like a luxury that can wait for better times. But the best-performing companies know that human capital truly is a business's most valuable asset, the scarcest resource, no matter what kind of business it is. Look at highflying IBM (IBM), No. 1 in our latest ranking of the world's top companies for leadership development. It hasn't even considered cutting back its Corporate Service Corps, which sends teams of promising employees around the world to work with local organizations on local problems. Former CEO Sam Palmisano liked to observe that calling IBM a hardware or software or services company was wrong in each case. "We're a people company," he said. Or consider General Mills (GIS), prospering in the fiercely competitive food industry. Its famously demanding leadership culture hasn't wavered, and the company ranks No. 21 on Glassdoor.com's new list of the 25 companies where it's hardest to get hired.

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