蘋果iPhone二季度銷量大預(yù)測
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????上周五，維基合伙人市場研究公司（Wedge Partners）的布萊恩?布萊爾在報告中提醒客戶，華爾街對蘋果公司（Apple）iPhone手機(jī)第二季度的銷量預(yù)期可能非常離譜，甚至到了危險的程度。 ????他說：“今年一月份，蘋果公司報告上年第四季度的銷量為3,700萬部，這一數(shù)字相當(dāng)驚人，而今年第一季度3,500萬部的銷量也同樣強(qiáng)勁……我們的觀點(diǎn)是，近期對iPhone手機(jī)銷量的預(yù)期可能過高，而在每股611美元的股價水平上，這顯露出了一些風(fēng)險。” ????布萊爾預(yù)計(jì)今年第三季度的銷量將在2,800萬到3,000萬部之間。 ????他總結(jié)說：“如果分析師一致預(yù)測第三季度iPhone銷量將達(dá)到3,100萬部，那我們應(yīng)該提高警惕了。” ????這種觀點(diǎn)很有意思，因?yàn)槲覀儗?1位追蹤蘋果公司表現(xiàn)的分析師做過調(diào)研，其中包括27位職業(yè)分析師和34位獨(dú)立分析人士。3,100萬恰好是這兩組分析師預(yù)測結(jié)果的分水嶺。 ????職業(yè)分析師的平均預(yù)期是2,954萬部，而獨(dú)立分析人士的平均預(yù)期是3,117萬部。 ????在其他領(lǐng)域，獨(dú)立分析人士幾乎是全盤看漲，而職業(yè)分析師則是普遍持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。但對于iPhone銷量的預(yù)期則正好相反。一些職業(yè)分析師給出了很高的預(yù)期，比如加貝利資產(chǎn)信托有限公司（Gabelli）分析師亨迪?蘇山多預(yù)期達(dá)3,460萬部，Societe General的分析師安迪?柏金思預(yù)期達(dá)3,300萬部，他們給出的預(yù)期最高。而在另一極端上，數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)查機(jī)構(gòu)Asymco的哈瑞斯?德迪歐和蘋果財(cái)務(wù)討論版論壇（Apple Finance Board）的考利?福斯伯格等獨(dú)立分析人士給出了最低的預(yù)期，只有2,850萬部。 ????我們有六名保持著長期最佳記錄的分析師。他們的預(yù)期通常會比最樂觀的獨(dú)立分析人士要低，而比最謹(jǐn)慎的職業(yè)分析師要高。他們六位本季度的預(yù)期結(jié)果比布萊爾提出的警戒線高出不少，平均預(yù)期達(dá)到3,210萬部。 ????7月24日周二收市后，蘋果將公布其收益。屆時我們將看到誰的預(yù)期最接近。 ????各位分析師的預(yù)期見下圖：職業(yè)分析師的結(jié)果用藍(lán)色表示，而獨(dú)立分析人士的結(jié)果用綠色表示。請關(guān)注兩種顏色的交替出現(xiàn)，這種情況不太尋常。 |
????In a note to clients Friday Wedge Partners' Brian Blair warned that the Street's expectations for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone sales in the June quarter might be getting dangerously out of line. ????"In January," he wrote, "Apple reported a monstrous 37 million units for the December quarter, followed by an almost equally strong March quarter of 35 million units... Our view is that iPhone unit estimates may end up being too high near term, and with the stock at $611 it presents some risk." ????Blair is looking for Q3 sales to come in between 28 and 30 million units. ????"We would be cautious," he concludes, "if consensus expectations for units shape up to be 31 million units or higher for June." ????That's interesting, because in our survey of 61 Apple analysts -- 27 professionals and 34 independents -- 31 million iPhones happens to be the dividing line between the two groups. ????The average estimate among the pros is 29.54 million and the average among the indies is 31.17 million. ????But unlike other categories, where the indies are almost universally bullish and the pros universally cautious, the iPhone numbers are all over the lot, with professionals like Gabelli's Hendi Susanto (at 34.6 million) and Societe General's Andy Perkins (33 million) offering some of the highest estimates we've seen. At the other extreme, independents like Asymco's Horace Dediu and Corey Forsberg of the Apple Finance Board offered some of the lowest estimates: 28.5 million apiece. ????Our six analysts with the best track record, who usually offer estimates lower than the most optimistic indies but higher than the more cautious pros, came in this quarter well over Blair's warning line, with an average estimate of 32.1 million. ????We'll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, July 24. ????Below the fold: The analysts' individual estimates, with the pros in blue and the amateurs in green. Note the unusual mixing of the two colors. |
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