高盛：蘋果用戶價值近3000億美元
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????高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析師比爾?肖普稱，華爾街傾向于將蘋果（Apple）視為一家硬件公司，公司價值僅僅在于持續不斷推出的熱銷產品——似乎iPhone、iPad的忠實用戶，以及具有超常粘性的iOS軟件平臺一文不值。 ????為此，肖普進行了兩方面的調查，嘗試確定這些無形資產的價值。 ????首先，他計算了從iOS轉到谷歌（Google）安卓（Android）系統等競爭性平臺的成本。. ????然后，他對1,000名iPhone和iPad用戶進行了調查，希望知道競爭產品要提供多大折價，才能吸引這些蘋果用戶考慮換到其他產品。 ????他在上周五發給客戶的一份報告中公布了調查結果。報告的要點如下： ????? iOS用戶忠誠度高。 94%的iOS用戶可能或非常可能在購買下一部智能手機或平板電腦時繼續選擇蘋果。超過1/5的用戶稱，再高的折價也不會考慮棄用蘋果產品。 ????? 轉換成本高。轉換的顯性成本包括更換音樂和應用軟件等，平均每臺設備為122-301美元。而隱性成本，包括“瑣碎的麻煩”、喪失蘋果優質的客戶服務等，則進一步強化了蘋果平臺的粘性。 ????? 規模效應。肖普估計，截至上周六，即蘋果第三財季結束時，安裝iOS的設備總量將超過2.81億部，較去年同期大增72%。采用蘋果產品綜合均價扣除蘋果毛利率、平臺侵蝕等因素，肖普計算出每名iOS用戶貢獻的生命周期價值為1,053美元。 ????? 蘋果的最大價值在于用戶。以2.81億用戶乘以1,053美元，肖普獲得了蘋果用戶的總價值約2,950億美元，相當于蘋果當前市值的55%。而這還沒有考慮“蘋果手頭1,100億美元的現金，蘋果用戶群的快速增長，Macintosh電腦和傳統iPod業務的價值，以及相關內容、服務和外圍設備的價值”。 ????肖普在報告中指出，有些風險可能造成未來iOS平臺價值大幅下降，這些風險包括創新失敗、監管審查、市場飽和、平臺競爭以及轉換成本下降等因素。但他表示，這些風險“已充分體現在蘋果當前的貼現估值中”。 ????目前，蘋果仍是高盛的板塊首選股，12個月目標價為850美元。蘋果過票上周四報收于569.05美元。 ????譯者：早稻米 |
????According to Goldman Sachs' Bill Shope, Wall Street tends to view Apple (AAPL) as a hardware company that is only as valuable as its next hit product -- as if its famously loyal iPhone and iPad customers or its unusually sticky iOS software platform were worth nothing. ????So he conducted a two-part study to try to put a price on those intangibles. ????First he calculated the cost of switching from iOS to a competing platform -- Google's (GOOG) Android, say. ????Then he conducted a survey of 1,000 iPhone and iPad customers to find out how much of a discount a competing product would have to offer before those customers would consider switching. ????He reported his findings in a note to clients Friday. The key takeaways: ????? iOS users are a loyal bunch. 94% are likely or highly likely to stick with Apple for their next smartphone or tablet. More than one in five said there isn't a discount high enough to persuade them to switch. ????? It costs a lot to switch. The explicit switching cost (to replace music, apps, etc.) comes to an average of $122 to $301 per device. The implicit switching costs (the "pain in the neck factor," losing Apple's better-than-average customer service, etc.) make the platform even stickier. ????? Installed base matters. Shope estimates that by Saturday (when Apple's third fiscal quarter ends), the installed base of iOS units will exceed 281 million, up 72% from the same quarter last year. Using a blended average selling price reduced by Apple's gross margin, platform erosion etc., he calculates that the lifetime value to Apple of each iOS customer is $1,053. ????? Apple's greatest value is its customer base. Multiplying 281 million by $1,053, Shope gets a value for Apple's installed base of roughly $295 billion. That's about 55% of Apple's current market capitalization. And that, he adds, "is before taking into consideration Apple's $110 billion cash balance, the rapid growth of the installed base, the value of the Macintosh and traditional iPod businesses, and the related content, services and peripherals streams." ????There are risks, Shope writes, that the value of the platform will decrease significantly in the future, among them failure to innovate, regulatory scrutiny, market saturation, platform competition and a deterioration of switching costs. But he adds that these risks "are more than captured in Apple's currently discounted valuation." ????Apple remains Goldman Sachs' (GS) top pick in the sector with a 12-month target price of $850. It closed Thursday at $569.05. |
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