臺(tái)灣供應(yīng)商銷(xiāo)售下滑無(wú)礙蘋(píng)果未來(lái)表現(xiàn)
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????投資公司Topeka的布萊恩?懷特一直在跟蹤一批臺(tái)灣電子產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)商的業(yè)績(jī)，并將其作為蘋(píng)果（Apple）未來(lái)業(yè)績(jī)的“晴雨表”。本周一上午，懷特與客戶(hù)分享了一個(gè)壞消息。 ????懷特的“蘋(píng)果監(jiān)控表”中只有一家公司尚未提交收益報(bào)告，其他公司的銷(xiāo)售額在六月環(huán)比下降了13％，相比之下，過(guò)去七年，六月份的銷(xiāo)售額同比平均增長(zhǎng)1％。 ????第二季度，這些供應(yīng)商的銷(xiāo)售額也相應(yīng)下降，降幅達(dá)8％，而在過(guò)去五年，銷(xiāo)售額在第二季度都上漲了8％。不過(guò)，情況仍好于蘋(píng)果在四月份給出的收益指引，懷特稱(chēng)，蘋(píng)果當(dāng)時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)降幅可能會(huì)達(dá)到13％。 ????盡管如此，懷特仍堅(jiān)持他對(duì)蘋(píng)果給出的1,111美元的目標(biāo)股價(jià)——這是我們所見(jiàn)到的最高的目標(biāo)股價(jià)。懷特指出，蘋(píng)果供應(yīng)商銷(xiāo)售額下降，部分原因可能在于這些公司其他客戶(hù)銷(xiāo)售乏力，而不是因?yàn)?a href="../../../../global500/253/2011">蘋(píng)果公司自身的問(wèn)題。他最后給出了積極的結(jié)論： ????我們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為，在眼下這種不明朗的環(huán)境下，進(jìn)入2012年下半年，投資高科技公司的最佳選擇依然是蘋(píng)果公司。即便在2008至2009年金融危機(jī)期間，蘋(píng)果公司的收入在2008年增長(zhǎng)了40％，在2009年增長(zhǎng)了20％；相比之下，整個(gè)科技界收入下降了20-30％。今年也非比尋常，我們相信，蘋(píng)果公司在今年下半年推出新產(chǎn)品的力度將超過(guò)歷史同期，我們預(yù)計(jì)它將推出iPhone5以及“迷你版iPad”，并有可能推出一款蘋(píng)果電視機(jī)。我們也期待著中國(guó)移動(dòng)（China Mobile）可能在2013年上半年開(kāi)始銷(xiāo)售iPhone，這將令投資者們興奮不已。（粗體字是我們標(biāo)注的） ????譯者：項(xiàng)航 |
????Topeka's Brian White, who tracks the performance of a collection of Taiwanese electronics suppliers as a "barometer" of Apple's (AAPL) future performance, shared some bad news with his clients Monday morning. ????With only one company in his "Apple Monitor" not yet reporting, sales among these suppliers were down 13% month over month in June, compared with an average 1% increase over the past seven Junes. ????For the June quarter, sales among these suppliers were down 8% sequentially, well below the 8% uptick in the same quarter over the past five years but still above the guidance Apple offered in April, which according to White called for a 13% decline. ????White is nonetheless sticking with his $1,111 price target for Apple -- one of the highest we've seen. He points out that some of the decline among Apple's suppliers may be due to the weakness of their other customers' sales, not Apple's. And he concludes on a positive note: ????We continue to believe that there is no better tech company to own during this uncertain environment, and heading into the second-half of the year, than Apple. Even during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, Apple grew revenue by 40% in CY08 and 20% in CY09 versus declines of 20-30% across the tech world. This year is also unique in that we believe Apple is poised for the biggest second-half product launch in its history with our expectation of an iPhone 5 and an "iPad Mini", combined with the potential for an Apple TV. We also look forward to the potential addition of China Mobile (CHL) during the first half of 2013, providing plenty of excitement for investors. (emphasis ours) |
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