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華爾街分析師熱議蘋果2012全球開發(fā)者大會

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年06月13日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司。
蘋果2012全球開發(fā)者大會后,蘋果公司在軟、硬件領(lǐng)域的最新進展悉數(shù)亮相。華爾街分析師對蘋果交出的成績單看法各異。

????摩根?史丹利(Morgan Stanley)凱迪?休伯特:目前,蘋果公司擁有4億個關(guān)聯(lián)信用卡的應用商店(App Store)賬戶,年比增長了78%。蘋果的應用商店是如今互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上賬戶最多的商店,我們認為,這是一項被低估的資產(chǎn)。相比較而言,截止2012年第一財季,亞馬遜(Amazon)僅有1.73億個賬戶。提高對中國市場的重視是保證蘋果公司長期發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵。目前,我們推斷,通過擴大iPhone手機在中國市場的銷售,2013財年,中國將為蘋果公司貢獻33%的增量收入。蘋果公司宣布,將整合百度(Baidu)、新浪(Sina)、優(yōu)酷(Youku)和土豆(Tudou),改進中文輸入,推出新中文字典,新增八種字體,并在Siri中加入普通話和粵語,這些都表明,蘋果在巨大的、持續(xù)增長的中國市場加大了投資。

????德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)克里斯?懷特摩爾:此次全球開發(fā)者大會上公布了許多經(jīng)過增強的功能,但沒有太大的驚喜。“大會主旨內(nèi)容和大家的期待是一致的,我們的模式也沒有發(fā)生改變。我們預計,軟件/Siri功能的增強以及新硬件的推出將為iOS平臺吸引更多用戶和開發(fā)者——加強蘋果公司在手機操作系統(tǒng)中的領(lǐng)先地位(3.65億iOS安裝基數(shù)),并進一步推動蘋果操作系統(tǒng)的跨平臺衍生。蘋果公司似乎正在通過其跨平臺應用(游戲中心)、iCloud(合同、文件分享等)和消息功能(iOS6將手機號碼與蘋果賬號綁定,用戶可以在Mac、iPad和iPhone上發(fā)送/接收信息),推動其手機操作系統(tǒng)和電腦操作系統(tǒng)的整合。這種跨平臺整合將提高iOS(iPhone、iPad和Apple TV)和Mac平臺的用戶黏著度,并使整個蘋果生態(tài)系統(tǒng)更具吸引力,聚集更多應用開發(fā)者和用戶。”

????杰富瑞投行(Jefferies & Co.)分析師皮特?米塞克:硬件與軟件升級;亮點頗多。“我們認為,蒂姆?庫克有一支強大的團隊作為后盾,他們?nèi)〉昧顺錾某删汀N覀冋J為,大會公布的新產(chǎn)品和升級將使開發(fā)者和消費者激動不已……我們認為,蘋果電視信息太多,不適合在本次大會公布。目前我們得到的消息是,蘋果將在3至6個月內(nèi)舉行專場發(fā)布會推出蘋果電視。我們認為,蘋果電視的發(fā)布時間將會在2012年下半年。”

????巴克萊銀行(Barclay)本?雷特茲:今年開發(fā)者大會的焦點是軟件,硬件的發(fā)布并未達到預期。“我們認為,許多軟件創(chuàng)新遠遠超出預期,但蘋果竟然沒有介紹公司為蘋果電視編寫應用的能力,這讓人有些吃驚。雖然會上公布的硬件給人留下了深刻印象,但卻并未發(fā)布更實惠、性價比更高的教育專用MacBook Air。此外,大會也沒有發(fā)布新型iMac,而且采用視網(wǎng)膜屏的也僅有新Macbook Pro。因此,投資者可能對蘋果有更高的期望。不過,我們還是很期待今年九月初,下一代iPhone和其他關(guān)鍵硬件產(chǎn)品發(fā)布的另一場盛會。”

????全球證券研究公司(Global Equities)特里普?喬杜里:產(chǎn)品升級還算不錯,但沒有太大突破。“對Facebook和推特(Twitter)的整合沒有什么意義。沒有史蒂夫?喬布斯,蘋果就只能提供這些嗎??”

????譯者:劉進龍/汪皓

????Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty: Apple now has 400M App Store accounts with credit cards, which is up 78% Y/Y. This is the store with the most accounts on the Internet today and it is an underappreciated asset in our view. For comparison, Amazon had 173M+ accounts as of C1Q12.... A focus on China is key to long-term growth. We currently model China contributing 33% of incremental revenue in CY13 driven by expanded distribution of the iPhone. Apple announced new integration with Baidu, Sina, Youku and Tudou as well as improved Chinese text input, a new dictionary, eight new fonts, and both Mandarin and Cantonese language integration with Siri, which all reflect the significant investments Apple is making to target this large and growing market.

????Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore: Many enhancements but no big surprises at WWDC."The announcements were in-line with expectation and our model is unchanged. We expect the software / Siri enhancements and new hardware to attract users and developers to the iOS platform- extending AAPL's lead in mobile OS (365M iOS install base) while driving greater cross-platform fertilization... It appears Apple is driving increased convergence between its mobile and computing OS's through cross-platform applications (Game Center), iCloud (contacts, document, etc sharing) and messaging (iOS6 unifies phone number & Apple ID so users can send/receive messages across their Macs, iPad and iPhones). This cross platform convergence should increase the stickiness of the iOS (iPhone, iPad and Apple TV) and Mac platforms while making the entire Apple ecosystem increasingly attractive to App developers and users alike."

????Jefferies Peter Misek: Hardware and Software Refresh; Lots to Get Excited About. "Tim Cook delivered a solid performance aided by a strong cast, in our view. We believe there are plenty of new products and updates for both developers and consumers to get excited about... We believe there was too much content for a TV to be announced. We now see a TV being unveiled at its own event likely within the next 3 to 6 months. We believe the launch of the device is still a 2H 2012 event."

????Barclay's Ben Reitzes: Software the Focus of WWDC, Hardware Launches not quite as Broad as Expected. "We believe many of the software innovations were ahead of expectations, but we were surprised not to see Apple introduce the ability to write apps for Apple TV. The hardware announcements were impressive but excluded a lower priced MacBook Air Price Performance for education. Also, no new iMacs were released and only the new Macbook Pro received a retina display. As a result, investors likely expected more. Nevertheless, we expect another major event in early September to release the next iPhone and several other key hardware products."

????Global Equities' Trip Chowdhry: Nice refresh, but no breakthroughs. "Common sensical integration of Facebook and Twitter. Is this the best we can get from Apple, post Steve Jobs??"

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