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????6月份當季，即蘋果公司（Apple）的第三財季，Mac是少數銷量沒有達到預期的產品之一。分析人士原本預計銷量為420萬臺，但蘋果公司只賣出了395萬臺。 ????本周二蘋果將公布第四財季業績，這種情況可能不會重演。 ????所有人似乎都同意Mac是推動本來可能萎縮的個人電腦市場繼續增長的少數電腦產品之一，特別是7月份蘋果推出了全新一代MacBook Air和Mac mini以來更是如此，這兩款都是最受歡迎的蘋果產品之一。 ????我們的業績預測調查中排名居前的53位分析師中，除了兩人——券商Sterne Agee的肖?吳和券商Janney的比爾?蔡，所有人都預測蘋果將打破去年圣誕節季度創下的413.4萬臺Macs銷量紀錄。雖然Macs銷量預測值最低有吳和蔡的410萬臺，最高有535萬臺（AAPL Independent Analysts的奈維?奈格拉尼給出的預測值），但機構分析師和獨立分析師的預測值差距還算比較小，至少與他們對營業收入、每股收益、iPhone和iPad的預測值相比是如此。 ????Mac銷量預期均值方面，職業分析師們給出的是430萬臺，博主們給出的估值是470萬臺。所有53位分析師給出的平均預期略高于450萬臺，同比增長16%。華爾街預計增幅14%，其他預計21%。 ????美國東部時間周二下午4點半左右隨著蘋果季度業績發布，我們將看到誰的預測最準確。蘋果擬定于當日下午5點的電話會議上與分析人士討論這些數據，電話會議的網絡直播可點擊這里。 ????下表是迄今為止我們收集的預測數據及其提交日期，獨立分析師標綠，機構分析師標藍。排名反映的是過去三個季度各分析師的營收和每股收益預測值的準確度(越靠后越準確)。 |
????The Mac was one of the few products that failed to live up to expectations in the June quarter (Apple's fiscal Q3). Analysts were looking for sales of 4.2 million. What Apple (AAPL) delivered was 3.95 million. ????That's not likely to happen again on Tuesday, when Apple reports its earnings for fiscal Q4. ????Everybody seems to agree that in a PC market that would otherwise be shrinking, the Mac is one of the few computer lines keeping it afloat, especially after the July refresh of two of Apple's most popular models: the MacBook Air and the Mac mini. ????Of 53 analysts polled in advance of our quarterly earnings smackdown, all but two -- Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu and Janney's Bill Choi -- are calling for Apple to beat the record 4.134 million Macs sold in the holiday quarter last year. Although the estimates range from Wu and Choi's low of 4.1 million to a high of 5.35 million (from Navin Nagrani of AAPL Independent Analysts), the spread between the institutional and independent analysts is relatively narrow, at least compared with their estimates for revenue, EPS, iPhones and iPads. ????The average Mac unit sales estimate among the pros is 4.3 million; among the bloggers it's 4.7 million. The average estimate of all 53 analysts is a little over 4.5 million, representing 16% growth from the same quarter last year. The Street is looking for 14%, the indies for 21%. ????We'll find out who was closest to the mark next Tuesday at about 4:30 p.m. EST, when the quarterly results hit the business wires. Apple is scheduled to discuss those results in a 5 p.m. conference call with analysts that the company will webcast here. ????Below: The estimates we've gathered so far and the dates they were submitted, with the independents in green and the institutionals in blue. The rank numbers show how accurate each analyst's revenue and EPS estimates were over the past three quarters (the lower the better). |
????數據：分析師報告，Apple 2.0最新文章