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????本周一，媒體廣泛報道了一份利空報告，導致蘋果（Apple）股價在早盤交易中急劇下挫。該報告是摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）分析師戈谷?哈里哈蘭向客戶發(fā)出的。報告稱，多家亞洲供應商已收到蘋果通知——iPad 2第四季度訂單量將下調(diào)25%。哈里哈蘭稱：“這一下調(diào)前所未見。”（科技博客Business Insider的標題為：天啊！蘋果iPad訂單縮水25%。） ????鑒于哈里哈蘭是被聘來追蹤蘋果主要供應商富士康（Foxconn）（富士康是臺灣企業(yè)鴻海的注冊商標）的，他的關(guān)注可以理解，因為這一變動對富士康的利潤率及其亞洲合作伙伴們的利潤都會造成影響。 ????哈里哈蘭以及那些聞風大肆拋售蘋果股票的交易者似乎都遺忘了此前來自南美洲的報道：富士康正和巴西政府合作，在該國開辦iPad工廠，并計劃將于今年12月投產(chǎn)。 ????不過，多名分析師對摩根大通的報告給予反駁后，蘋果股價略微有所回升。 ????投資銀行Piper Jaffray的吉恩?明斯特表示：“蘋果有意保持了足夠數(shù)量的供應商和生產(chǎn)合作伙伴，如此一來，供給方的任何一個數(shù)據(jù)都不具有決定性。”明斯特還提到蘋果正在將代工任務(wù)向巴西方面轉(zhuǎn)移。 ????咨詢公司Bullish Cross的安迪?扎克對此表示贊同：“我們認為摩根大通的報道非常具有誤導性。他們試圖對蘋果的未來發(fā)展做出定論，但其證據(jù)卻完全不能自圓其說。” ????更新：發(fā)生了一件很少見的“內(nèi)斗”事件：據(jù)彭博社（Bloomberg）報道，摩根大通的馬克?莫斯科維茨正式否決了其亞洲同事的報道。莫斯科維茨稱，該報道“引發(fā)了資本市場對蘋果的擔憂。報道關(guān)注的焦點是iPad訂單量的減少對鴻海會產(chǎn)生何種影響。該警報并非來自美國IT硬件團隊的評估。” ????譯者：項航 |
????Apple (AAPL) shares fell sharply in early trading Monday following a widely reported note to clients from J.P. Morgan's Gokul Hariharan to the effect that multiple supply chain vendors in Asia have registered a 25% cut in fourth-quarter iPad 2 orders from Apple -- "the first cut ever we've seen" according to Hariharan. (Business Insider's headline: HOLY CRAP: Apple Just Cut iPad Orders By 25%.) ????Given that Hariharan is paid to cover Foxconn (the trademark of Taiwan-based Hon Hai), Apple's major supplier, he was understandably concerned about what such a cut would do to Foxconn's profit margins and the profits of its Asian partners. ????What Hariharan -- and the traders who dumped Apple shares on the news -- seem to have missed were the reports out of South American that Foxconn, in partnership with the Brazilian government, has built an iPad plant in Brazil that is ready to start churning out product by December. ????The stock recovered somewhat after several analysts stepped forward to pour cold water on the J.P. Morgan report. ????"Apple purposely maintains enough suppliers and manufacturing partners to make any one supply-side data point inconclusive," wrote Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster, who mentioned the fact that Apple is transitioning to Brazilian manufacturing. ????"We believe the report out of JPM is extraordinarily misleading," echoed Bullish Cross' Andy Zaky, "given that it attempts draw a conclusion regarding Apple's expectations which are simply not founded in evidence." ????UPDATE: In a rare eruption of internecine conflict, J.P. Morgan's Mark Moskowitz has formally disavowed his Asian colleague's report, according to Bloomberg. That report "has the equity markets worried about Apple," Moskowitz wrote. It "focuses on how Hon Hai could be impacted by potential iPad sell-in order cuts. This alert is not the view of the U.S. IT hardware team." |
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