圖片來源：Seeking Alpha
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????去年夏天，當蘋果（Apple）股價達到260美元時，我們基于尼古拉?米哈拉齊的分析數據發表了一篇文章。米哈拉齊是一位羅馬尼亞裔數學家，在巴黎大學任教。他當時利用大量圖表和各種準則來跟蹤蘋果的業績。其中既有廣為人知的P/E標準（市盈率，即股價與凈利潤之比），也有非常晦澀難懂的P - $EG標準（用每股價格與每股現金持有量的差值除以年增長率。） ????鑒于蘋果的PEG（市盈率除以凈利潤的年增長率）僅為0.25，米哈拉齊當時得出結論稱，蘋果260美元的股價仍有很大增長空間。（一般認為，當一只股票的PEG小于1時，該股票股價存在低估。） ????米哈拉齊在恰好是一年之后，即本周二時再次關注了這個話題。他在股市及金融研究網站Seeking Alpha發表文章探討蘋果目前400美元的股價是否仍被低估。 ????事實上他得出結論稱，仍然主要從PEG方面考慮，蘋果的股價與一年前相比，低估程度甚至更大。蘋果在過去12個月的凈利潤年復增長率高達90%，而其股價僅上漲了50%，所以其PEG從0.25下滑至0.17。 ????基于這點，米哈拉齊做出了如下預測： ????“為了保險起見，同時避免出現高得離奇的估值預測，我假定蘋果在2012和2013年市盈率將進一步下降（12和10），同時其利潤增長率也出現下降（分別為80%和60%）。除非蘋果突然一蹶不振，我預計一年之后，蘋果股價將達到550美元甚至更高，2012年底將達到650美元，而2013年底至少達到850美元。” ????【蘋果股價周二以403.41美元收盤，上漲4.91美元（1.23%），當天股價最高達到404.50美元。】 ????米哈拉齊經常對蘋果做出很高預測。不過在我們最近進行的一次蘋果收益預測比賽中，米哈拉齊的表現遠超其他分析師。我們當時比較了48位分析師對蘋果2011年第三財季的預測數據，其中既有專業分析師，也有業余分析師。 ????譯者：項航 |
????Last summer, when Apple (AAPL) was trading for $260 a share, we ran an item on some analytical work by Nicholae Mihalache, a Romanian mathematician who teaches at the University of Paris. He had prepared a series of charts tracking Apple's performance using various criteria, from the familiar P/E (price to earnings) ratio to the more obscure P - $EG (the difference between share price and cash holdings per share divided by annual growth rate). ????He concluded, based primarily on Apple's PEG (price over earnings divided by growth), which at the time was 0.25, that Apple at $260 had considerable room to grow. (Traditionally, any stock with a PEG less than 1.0 is considered undervalued.) ????Mihalache returned to the subject Tuesday, exactly one year later, with an article in Seeking Alpha that asks whether Apple at $400 is still undervalued. ????In fact he concludes that, based primarily on the PEG ratio, Apple's shares are even more undervalued now than they were a year ago. The company's earnings over the past 12 months have grown at the rate of 90% per year while its stock is up about 50%, moving Apple's PEG from 0.25 to 0.17. ????On that basis he makes some forecasts: ????"In order to be conservative and to avoid ridiculously high valuation predictions," he writes, "I will assume further P/E compression (12 and 10) and earnings growth cooling off in 2012 and 2013 (respectively, 80% and 60%). Barring any market meltdown, I predict that one year from now AAPL will be at $550 or more, $650 by the end of 2012, and at least $850 by the end of 2013." ????[The stock closed Tuesday at $403.41, up $4.91 (1.23%) for the day, having traded as high as $404.50.] ????Mihalache tends to set high bars for Apple. But in our most recent earnings smackdown, in which we compared the Q3 2011 estimates of 48 Apple analysts -- professional and amateur -- Mihalache's were, by a large margin, the best. |
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