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????針對蘋果公司（Apple）開發者大會上傳出的消息，公司股價上周末應聲收報于325.9美元——創下去年12月以來的新低。我想，我們應該看看上周五的這一股價與華爾街分析師一年前發布的12個月目標股價相比情況如何。那份報告是在蘋果公司推出iPhone 4的大會召開之后發布的。 ????我找到了一些2010年6月7日、8日發布的分析報告，以為會找到非常離譜的分析數字。讓我驚訝的是，蘋果的12個月目標股價與目前股價幾乎完全相符。目標股價的低位是287美元，高位是350美元，均值為322.33美元——僅比上周五的收盤價略低幾美元。 ????然而，分析師們當時似乎在市盈率倍數這個他們賴以進行預測的關鍵數據上出了岔子。為了計算目標股價，他們將蘋果公司的預期收入乘以從16到22.5的不同系數。然而當蘋果公司的業績超出預估時，發生了兩件事：1）蘋果公司的股價飛漲暫告停止；2）分析師調低了蘋果的市盈率倍數。在分析發布后的四個財季，蘋果收入的增長分別達到了74.6%, 67.5%, 75.2%和92.2% ????我們請這12位分析師解釋為何調整蘋果的市盈率倍數，其中4位回答了我們的問題，并給出了相同的答案：“倍數壓縮”。 ????以加皇資本市場（RBC）麥克?艾布拉姆斯基的分析為例,他在2010年6月預測蘋果公司的12個月目標股價為350美元，這是基于蘋果公司2011財年收入的22倍得出的。而他當前所做的12個月目標股價為450美元，是基于收入的11倍得出的。 ????他解釋道：“去年，蘋果公司巨大的領先優勢和iPhone的市場份額增加/市場擴張【如威瑞森公司（Verizon）的iPhone】使投資者熱情高漲。今年，倍數則被市場壓縮了。考慮到股價的巨大漲幅，投資者顯得比去年更保守，反映出市場的諸多不確定性，比如，下一波股市增長的支撐因素是什么，Android會不會對蘋果公司造成沖擊，影響的大程度如何，以及斯蒂夫的健康狀況等。調低倍數的另一個原因是現金比例有所上升。這一比例現在占到股價的20%，而一年前是17%。” ????薩斯奎哈那（Susquehanna）公司的杰夫?菲德卡羅則將急劇減小的倍數歸結于華爾街的一種觀點，即蘋果公司持續幾個財季的飛速增長基本告一段落了。 ????“我的觀點是：1）考慮到蘋果公司在iPhone和iPad上的成功和大數法則，市場通過數據建模一致認為，2012財年其收入增長約為16-17%，與2011財年的60%和2010財年的52%相比，降幅顯著；2）鑒于蘋果公司龐大的凈現金額，投資者投資蘋果公司的意愿在下降；3）投資者對斯蒂夫?喬布斯的健康狀況感到擔憂。” ????BCG公司合伙人科林?吉利斯表示，過去6個月以來，市場總體也已出現了壓縮——據他的計算，倍數是從15倍遞減到13.8倍——但是蘋果公司的倍數比大多數公司收縮得更劇烈。原因在于：蘋果公司在上個財季中“一如既往地業績出眾。” ????吉利斯說：“一年前，iPad為蘋果公司開辟了全新的收入來源。從零起步的增長是規模驚人的。而現在，收入增長放緩步伐是必然的趨勢。股價仍會繼續上漲，但是，要想倍數不再縮小，那就有得等了。” ????從現有記錄看，據湯姆森/第一呼叫（Thomson/First Call）公司報道，當前蘋果公司12個月目標股價區間為從低位的210美元直至高位的612美元，中位數為450美元。 ????譯者：清遠 |
????When Apple's (AAPL) shares responded to the news out of the company's developers conference by closing the week at $325.90 -- their lowest level since last December -- I thought I'd take a look at how last Friday's stock price compared with the 12-month price targets Wall Street's analysts posted exactly one year earlier, after the conference that introduced the iPhone 4. ????I dug out a dozen analyst's reports issued on June 7 and 8, 2010, expecting to find numbers that were wildly off the mark. To my surprise, the 12-month price targets neatly bracketed the stock's current price. They ranged from a low of $287 to a high of $350, with a mean of $322.33 -- just a few dollars off Friday's close. ????Where the analysts seem to have gone off the rails last year is in the price-to-earnings multiples on which they based their predictions. To calculate their price targets, they multiplied Apple's estimated earnings by factors that ranged from 16 to 22.5. When Apple more than delivered on those estimates -- growing earnings 74.6%, 67.5%, 75.2% and 92.2%, respectively, over the next four quarters -- two things happened: 1) the run on Apple's stock price came to a halt, and 2) the analysts cut their multiples. ????When we asked these 12 analysts to explain the discrepancy, the four who responded all gave the same answer: "multiple compression." ????Take, for example, RBC's Mike Abramsky. His 12-month price target for Apple in June 2010 was $350, based on 22 times Apple's estimated fiscal 2011 earnings. His current 12-month target is $450, based on 11 times earnings. ????"Last year investors were excited about Apple's massive tablet head start and iPhone share gains/market expansion (e.g. the Verizon iPhone)," he wrote by way of explanation. "This year, the multiple has been compressed by the market. Investors appear more restrained than last year, considering the big run in the stock. It reflects market uncertainty regarding what will drive the next leg of growth, how much or not Android will impact Apple, Steve's health, etc. Another reason for the lower multiple is higher cash. It is currently 20% of the stock price vs. 17% 1 year ago." ????Susquehanna's Jeff Fidacaro attributed the sharply reduced multiples to the Street's belief that Apple's quarters of breakneck growth are largely over. ????"My sense is 1) given Apple's success in iPhone and iPad and the law of large numbers, consensus is modeling about a 16-17% revenue growth in FY12 from over 60% in FY11 and 52% in FY10, significant deceleration; 2) investors less willing to give Apple credit for its massive net cash balance; and 3) investor concerns on Steve Jobs's health." ????BCG Partner's Collin Gillis notes that the broader market has also been compressed over the past six months -- by his calculation from 15x to 13.8x -- but that Apple is getting squeezed more than most. Reason: Apple's most recent quarter "was about as good as it gets." ????"A year ago, the iPad was a new source of revenue for Apple," says Gillis. "Growth over zero was tremendous. Now it's not, and revenue growth has to slow down. The stock can still go up, but waiting for a multiple to decompress is like waiting for grass to grow." ????For the record, the current 12-month price targets for Apple, as reported by Thomson/First Call, range from a low of $210 to a high of $612, with a median target of $450. |
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