????7. 氣候變化繼續(xù)導(dǎo)致糧食減產(chǎn)，結(jié)果糧食與牲畜價(jià)格大幅上漲。隨著生活水平的提高，發(fā)展中國(guó)家的糧食需求持續(xù)增加。越來(lái)越多投資者將注意力轉(zhuǎn)移到大宗商品，將其視為投資機(jī)會(huì)，擴(kuò)大對(duì)該類資產(chǎn)的配置。玉米價(jià)格上漲至8美元/蒲式耳，小麥價(jià)格上漲至9美元/蒲式耳，牛的價(jià)格上漲至1.5美元/磅。

????8. 雖然通脹仍較為溫和，但隨著各國(guó)央行繼續(xù)使貨幣貶值，黃金價(jià)格已經(jīng)達(dá)到每盎司1,900美元，金融市場(chǎng)危機(jī)重重。

????9. 日本經(jīng)濟(jì)仍毫無(wú)起色，日元對(duì)美元匯率跌至100比1。日經(jīng)225指數(shù)（Nikke 225）延續(xù)從去年11月開(kāi)始的大幅上揚(yáng)勢(shì)頭。隨著日本出口的好轉(zhuǎn)，投資者對(duì)世界第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的股票恢復(fù)了信心，日經(jīng)225指數(shù)將超過(guò)12,000點(diǎn)。

????10. 歐洲的結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題依然無(wú)解，從2012年開(kāi)始的輕度衰退將繼續(xù)。隨著國(guó)力較弱的國(guó)家進(jìn)入緊縮時(shí)期，各國(guó)內(nèi)部的騷亂趨于平息。實(shí)踐將證明，希臘減少政府開(kāi)支浪費(fèi)和提高偷稅漏稅國(guó)民納稅的政策非常成功。然而，受美國(guó)股市影響，歐洲股市將下跌10%。

????每年都會(huì)有多項(xiàng)預(yù)測(cè)無(wú)法入選十大預(yù)測(cè)之列，原因是我認(rèn)為其重要程度不如上述預(yù)測(cè)，或其發(fā)生概率達(dá)不到“可能”的程度。以下為未入選前十的幾項(xiàng)預(yù)測(cè)。

“落選預(yù)測(cè)”

????11. 2012年大多數(shù)時(shí)間均低于20點(diǎn)的VIX波動(dòng)率指數(shù)激增33%，達(dá)到30點(diǎn)，給交易商帶來(lái)了福音。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下跌，增加了市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性。

????12. 康涅狄格州紐頓市的慘案最終說(shuō)服美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)，必須采取必要措施進(jìn)行槍支管制。第一步便是禁止平民購(gòu)買自動(dòng)武器，包括彈匣超過(guò)十發(fā)子彈的手槍，并加大了對(duì)所有槍支購(gòu)買的背景調(diào)查。“買槍的難度不應(yīng)低于租車”將成為一條口號(hào)。

????13. 由于無(wú)法通過(guò)提高收入所得稅增加收入，沮喪的美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)開(kāi)始考慮其他途徑。關(guān)于征收增值稅和財(cái)產(chǎn)稅的說(shuō)法甚囂塵上，而且支持這些觀點(diǎn)的陣營(yíng)似乎在慢慢擴(kuò)大。

????14. 美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)認(rèn)為，基于高頻算法和其他計(jì)算機(jī)化算法的交易方式將使個(gè)人投資者處于不利境地。為給狂熱活動(dòng)降溫，避免“快閃跌市”和小故障的出現(xiàn)，美國(guó)將對(duì)回轉(zhuǎn)交易征收交易費(fèi)。

????15. 地球上的各種科技已經(jīng)趨于飽和。半導(dǎo)體公司、軟件提供商、社交媒體和個(gè)人計(jì)算機(jī)制造商的收入報(bào)告均不盡如人意，它們給出的預(yù)測(cè)也令人沮喪，進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致整個(gè)市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始下行。用戶最終承認(rèn)，當(dāng)前的現(xiàn)狀已經(jīng)足夠快，連接已經(jīng)足夠多，他們下載的“應(yīng)用”過(guò)多，甚至連他們自己都不知道這些應(yīng)用能用來(lái)做什么。但隨著產(chǎn)品在海外的巨大成功，蘋果（Apple）依然逆勢(shì)上揚(yáng)，股價(jià)超過(guò)700美元。

????維恩去年的預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確度如何？點(diǎn)擊查看2012年十大預(yù)測(cè)。

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????7. Climate change contributes to another year of crop failures, resulting in grain and livestock prices rising significantly. Demand for grains in developing economies continues to increase as the standard of living rises. More investors focus on commodities as an investment opportunity and increase their allocation to this asset class. Corn rises to $8.00 a bushel, wheat to $9.00 a bushel and cattle to $1.50 a pound.

????8. Although inflation remains tame, the price of gold reaches $1,900 an ounce as central bankers everywhere continue to debase their currencies and the financial markets prove treacherous.

????9. The Japanese economy remains lackluster and the yen declines to 100 against the dollar. The Nikkei 225 continues the strong advance that began in November and trades above 12,000 as exports improve and investors return to the stocks of the world's third largest economy.

????10. The structural problems of Europe remain largely unresolved and the mild recession that began there in 2012 continues. Civil unrest subsides as the weaker countries adjust to austerity. Greece proves successful in implementing policies that reduce wasteful government expenditures and raise revenues from citizens who had been evading taxes. European equities, however, decline 10% in sympathy with the U.S. market.

????Every year there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten because either I do not believe they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are "probable." Below are several "also rans" which did not make the Ten Surprises.

"Also Rans"

????11. Having traded below 20 for most of 2012 the VIX Volatility Index surges 33% to 30, providing a bonanza for traders. The decline in the S&P 500 increases market volatility.

????12. The Newtown, Connecticut, massacre finally convinces Congress to do something about gun control. As a first step they ban future civilian purchases of automatic weapons, including handguns, with clips of more than ten rounds and require more extensive background checks on all gun purchases. "It should not be easier to buy a gun than rent a car" becomes a slogan.

????13. Frustrated by an inability to increase revenues through raising income taxes, Congress begins to consider different approaches. There is more talk of a value-added tax as well as a wealth tax, and these ideas appear to be slowly gathering momentum.

????14. Congress decides that high-frequency and other computerized algorithmic-based trading practices are putting the individual investor at a disadvantage. A transaction fee designed to slow down frenetic activity and protect against "flash crashes" and glitches is imposed on intra-day trades.

????15. The planet finds itself saturated with technology. Semiconductor companies, software providers, social media favorites and personal computer manufacturers all report disappointing earnings and provide discouraging guidance. They lead the overall market lower. Users finally agree the present state of the art is fast enough and connected enough, and that they have more "apps" than they know what to do with. Apple bucks the trend and trades above $700 as its products continue to enjoy enormous success abroad.

????How did Wien do last year? Check out his 2012 list here.