????黑石顧問(wèn)合伙人公司（Blackstone Advisory Partners）副董事長(zhǎng)拜倫?維恩年初發(fā)表了2012年十大預(yù)測(cè)報(bào)告。他在擔(dān)任摩根斯坦利（Morgan Stanley）首席美國(guó)投資戰(zhàn)略家時(shí)就開始每年發(fā)布此項(xiàng)報(bào)告，迄今已有25年。

????關(guān)于預(yù)測(cè)，如果普通投資者認(rèn)為只有三分之一的發(fā)生概率，拜倫會(huì)將其定義為“意外”；一旦他認(rèn)為“可能”，則表明他認(rèn)為發(fā)生的概率大于50%。

2012年十大預(yù)測(cè)

????1、頁(yè)巖油氣開采顛覆石油市場(chǎng)格局。石油價(jià)格回歸至每桶85美元，美國(guó)對(duì)石油的進(jìn)口開始不那么依賴中東。波蘭、烏克蘭等地的石油儲(chǔ)備量也很充足。造成油價(jià)回落的因素包括利比亞和伊拉克石油產(chǎn)量增加，以及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)放緩導(dǎo)致需求減少。

????2、美國(guó)公司收入持續(xù)提高，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)上揚(yáng)至1,400點(diǎn)以上。原材料價(jià)格持續(xù)走軟，商界領(lǐng)袖通過(guò)利用科技降低勞動(dòng)力和物流在產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)中所占的比重，保證了利潤(rùn)高企，從而成功適應(yīng)了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩的形勢(shì)。

????3. 美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)元?dú)狻?/strong>實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率將超過(guò)3%，失業(yè)率將下滑到8%以下。對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的恐懼，以及關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)持久放緩將成為“新常態(tài)”的觀點(diǎn)遭到質(zhì)疑。資本支出、出口以及消費(fèi)者三項(xiàng)因素推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)并突破財(cái)政障礙。石油價(jià)格下跌以及股市上揚(yáng)不僅會(huì)增強(qiáng)消費(fèi)者的信心，同時(shí)也會(huì)改善消費(fèi)模式。

????Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, today published his list of surprises for 2012 -- following a 25-year tradition he began while still chief U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley.

????Byron defines a "Surprise" as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is "probable," having a better than 50% likelihood of happening:

The Surprises of 2012

????1. The extraction of oil and gas from shale and rock begins to be a game changer. The price of oil drifts back to $85 a barrel and the United States becomes less dependent on Middle East supply. Deposits in Poland, Ukraine and elsewhere prove promising as well. Increased production from Libya and Iraq and reduced demand resulting from the slowdown in world-wide economic activity contribute to the price decline.

????2. Earnings for American corporations continue to move higher driving the Standard & Poor's 500 above 1400. Raw material prices continue soft and business leaders successfully adjust to slower economic growth by using technology to reduce the labor and logistical component of goods and services sold; profit margins stay high.

????3. The U.S. economy gets its second wind. Real growth exceeds 3% and the unemployment rate drops below 8%. Recession fears and even "the new normal" view of prolonged slow growth are called into question. Capital spending, exports and the consumer drive the economy, overcoming fiscal drag. The drop in the price of oil and the rise in the stock market improve both consumer confidence and spending patterns.

????4. The recovering economy and the declining unemployment rate help President Obama convince the voters that he didn't do such a bad job in his first term after all. He is viewed as a good speaker but a poor leader who is running against Mitt Romney, viewed as uninspired and whose positions on many issues are unclear. Democrats take back the House of Representatives but lose the Senate in an anti-incumbent wave.

????5. Europe finally develops a broad plan to deal with its sovereign debt problem and moves closer to fiscal cohesion. The European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the European Financial Stability Facility and the European Union band together to keep all the countries within the Union and to continue the euro as the Continent's currency. Greece has a major restructuring of its debt; Spain and Ireland strengthen their finances during the year, but Italy suffers a "voluntary" restructuring. A meltdown of the banks is avoided, but imposed austerity causes Europe to suffer a recession.

????6. The computer replaces conventional armaments as the principal weapon of terrorists and geopolitical adversaries. Eastern European and Asian hackers invade the data banks of major international financial institutions causing temporary bank closures. An alarmed G-20 meets to address the problem.