安德森?霍洛維茨：為什么說我們并非處于新一輪的科技泡沫中
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????本月早些時(shí)候，在位于硅谷中心地帶的瑰麗酒店，約100名機(jī)構(gòu)投資者參加了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資公司安德森?霍洛維茨的有限合伙人年會(huì)。該公司在會(huì)上堅(jiān)定地表示，盡管私募市場(chǎng)估值達(dá)到甚至超過10億美元的所謂“獨(dú)角獸”創(chuàng)業(yè)公司越來越多，但科技市場(chǎng)目前并不存在泡沫。 ????它投資的“獨(dú)角獸”公司包括Airbnb、Actifio、Instacart、Jawbone、Lyft、Pinterest、Slack和Zenefits。之前還曾投資過Twitter以及云存儲(chǔ)公司Box。 ????在這次年會(huì)上，公司首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官斯科特·庫(kù)柏首先登臺(tái)發(fā)言，其演示文稿在該公司網(wǎng)站上已經(jīng)可以看到。他主要對(duì)比了當(dāng)前和網(wǎng)絡(luò)泡沫時(shí)期的環(huán)境，從中可以看到：當(dāng)下的科技投資體量要比上一輪互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫時(shí)期小得多，而互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶數(shù)卻比那時(shí)大太多了。該公司還指出，大批“獨(dú)角獸”的興起以及其中進(jìn)行IPO的公司相對(duì)較少，意味著大部分增值落到了私募市場(chǎng)投資者手里（比如參會(huì)的各位）。 ????舉例來說，據(jù)安德森?霍洛維茨公司的報(bào)告顯示，2014年美國(guó)科技界通過風(fēng)投和IPO得到的融資總規(guī)模為480億美元，約占美國(guó)GDP的2.6%；而1999年這個(gè)數(shù)字為710億美元，占GDP比例為10.8%，顯然要高得多。此外，標(biāo)普IT指數(shù)的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率目前為16.1倍，1999年則為39倍。而所有這些數(shù)字的時(shí)代背景是：目前全球互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶數(shù)量已是1999年的7.5倍，電子商務(wù)行業(yè)的年收入也增長(zhǎng)了25倍以上。 |
????Earlier this month, around 100 institutional investors gathered at the Rosewood Hotel in the heart of Silicon Valley, for the annual limited partner meeting of venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. What they heard was the firm’s staunch belief that the tech market is not currently in a bubble, despite the proliferation of so-called unicorn startups that have received billion-dollar (or higher) valuations in the private markets. ????Among the unicorns in Andreessen Horowotiz’s portfolio are Airbnb, Actifio, Instacart, Jawbone, Lyft, Jawbone, Pinterest, Slack and Zenefits. Prior investments included Box and Twitter . ????The VC firm’s argument was first presented to investors by chief operating officer Scott Kupor, via a slideshow that is now available on the firm’s website. It primarily compares the current environment to that of the dotcom bubble, showing that today’s tech investment volumes are much smaller despite the much larger number of Internet users. The firm also argues that the unicorn development — and relative lack of IPOs — means that most of the value appreciation is going to private market investors (i.e., those in the room). ????For example, Andreessen Horowitz reports that the total amount of venture capital and IPO financing dollars in 2014 was $48 billion, compared to $71 billion in 1999. That works out to around 2.6% of today’s GDP, while the 1999 figure comprised a much higher 10.8% of GDP. Moreover, the S&P IT index’s forward price-earnings ratio is 16.1x today versus 39x in 1999. All of this comes at a time when the global Internet population is 7.5x larger and annual e-commerce revenue is up more than 25x. |
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