????沒(méi)人能像馬克?安德森那樣精準(zhǔn)地洞見(jiàn)未來(lái)。他對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)與科技交叉領(lǐng)域的預(yù)言一直受到硅谷密切關(guān)注。他既能放眼全球，預(yù)判即將橫空出世的“下一個(gè)大事件”和熱點(diǎn)地區(qū)，又能夠洞察哪些熱門(mén)產(chǎn)品和國(guó)家行將過(guò)氣。由安德森領(lǐng)銜的“戰(zhàn)略新聞服務(wù)”公司（Strategic News Service），是一家專(zhuān)為行業(yè)領(lǐng)袖和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家服務(wù)的通訊出版商。該公司宣稱(chēng)擁有眾多大牌讀者，比如戴爾公司首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾?戴爾、特斯拉公司首席執(zhí)行官埃倫?穆斯克和微軟創(chuàng)始人比爾?蓋茨。最近，在舊金山的一個(gè)聚會(huì)上，馬克?安德森就2015年的科技走勢(shì)發(fā)表了他的預(yù)言。主要觀點(diǎn)如下：

????技術(shù)預(yù)言：

????? 像比特幣這樣的數(shù)字貨幣將層出不窮，同時(shí)也會(huì)走入絕境。貨幣總是需要一個(gè)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力和軍事力量作保障才能贏得人們的信任。

????? “網(wǎng)絡(luò)中立性”，即互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務(wù)供應(yīng)商和政府應(yīng)平等對(duì)待所有數(shù)據(jù)這一理念，將繼續(xù)存活。

????? 模式識(shí)別將成為大數(shù)據(jù)的真正目標(biāo)。將有大批新工具和芯片被開(kāi)發(fā)出來(lái)，讓人們收集數(shù)據(jù)，識(shí)別此前無(wú)法洞察的趨勢(shì)，從而引發(fā)一場(chǎng)計(jì)算革命。

????? 在多家公司近期接連遭受黑客攻擊后，網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全將會(huì)成為首席執(zhí)行官們關(guān)注的頭等大事。由于缺乏保護(hù)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)系統(tǒng)可能造成的損失，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)打造一個(gè)安全網(wǎng)絡(luò)所需的成本，各大公司將不再削減一緊再緊的安全開(kāi)支，轉(zhuǎn)而加大投資。

????? 虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)領(lǐng)域?qū)⑷杂蓨蕵?lè)業(yè)主導(dǎo)。盡管Facebook公司斥資20億美元收購(gòu)了Oculus公司，但能讓人們沉浸于3D世界的頭戴式裝備離日常生活仍遠(yuǎn)。

????? 亞馬遜公司前景不妙。由于在電子書(shū)定價(jià)問(wèn)題上與Hachette出版集團(tuán)爭(zhēng)執(zhí)不下，再加上前途未卜的無(wú)人機(jī)服務(wù)和遭遇慘敗的Fire手機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)，這家電商巨頭很可能遭受巨額虧損。

????? 聯(lián)網(wǎng)家電（比如一臺(tái)可以讓你發(fā)微博的冰箱）將進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)，但依然不會(huì)成為主流。人們真正想要的不過(guò)是低廉的能源成本，一大堆電視屏幕和一個(gè)遙控器。在許多人看來(lái)，讓一些不會(huì)說(shuō)話的設(shè)備相互交流太復(fù)雜，似乎沒(méi)有傳統(tǒng)家電那么可靠。

????? 蘋(píng)果公司的數(shù)字支付服務(wù)Apple Pay將大獲成功，在市場(chǎng)上確立領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位。

????? 計(jì)算機(jī)加密將依然是主流趨勢(shì)。

????? 個(gè)人保健、健身和生活方式設(shè)備將會(huì)融合，市場(chǎng)上將會(huì)涌現(xiàn)大量手表和健身腕帶。智能服裝（設(shè)想一下：和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)相連、能監(jiān)測(cè)血流量的襪子）由于其價(jià)格和可靠性問(wèn)題，仍將屬于小眾產(chǎn)品。

????No one does predictions like Mark Anderson, whose forecasts about the intersection of the economy and technology are closely followed in Silicon Valley. He has a global view of what’s the next big thing and place along an eye for hot products and countries that about to take a dive. Anderson is head of Strategic News Service, a newsletter publisher for industry leaders and venture capitalists. It claims a readership that includes Dell CEO, Michael Dell, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Microsoft’s Bill Gates. Recently, Mark Anderson listed his predictions for 2015 during a gathering in San Francisco. Here are his key points:

????Tech predictions:

????? Digital currencies like bitcoin will multiply and go nowhere. Currencies require the economic strength and military power of a nation to garner people’s trust.

????? Net neutrality, the idea that Internet service providers and governments should treat all data equally, will survive.

????? Pattern recognition will become the real goal of big data. A host of new tools and chips will be developed, to let people gather data and pick out trends that they would otherwise be unable to see, setting off a revolution in computing.

????? Following the recent series of corporate hackings, security will become a priority on CEO agendas. Companies will reverse the downward spending trend on security as the cost of poorly protected computer systems outweigh the cost of building secure ones.

????? Virtual reality will remain the domain of entertainment. Headsets that immerse people in a 3D world will not become a feature of everyday life despite Facebook’s $2 billion acquisition of Oculus, a company that makes virtual reality headsets.

????? Expect Amazon to stumble. Between the brawl with publisher Hachette over e-book prices, drones, and the Amazon Fire phone’s flop, losses are heading Amazon’s way.

????? Networks for devices connected to the internet (think refrigerators that let you tweet) will get off of their launchpads but remain niche. All people really want is low energy costs, lots of TVs, and one remote. People don’t want complexity replacing reliability and dumb things talking to other dumb things.

????? Digital payment service Apple Pay will succeed, establishing it’s leadership in the market.

????? Computer encryption will continue to expand as a major trend.

????? Personal health and fitness and lifestyle devices will merge, and there will be a plethora of watches and fitness bands on the market. Intelligent clothing, (think: socks that are connected to the internet and can monitor your blood flow), will stay niche due to price and inconsistency.