顛覆性創(chuàng)新理論不適用于蘋果？
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????克萊頓?克里斯坦森開創(chuàng)的顛覆性創(chuàng)新理論(disruptive innovation)，也許適用于磁盤驅(qū)動(dòng)器、機(jī)械挖掘機(jī)和煉鋼廠，但是遇到蘋果（Apple）時(shí)，這項(xiàng)被當(dāng)前許多企業(yè)管理思想作為基石的理論就不靈了。 ????他曾經(jīng)在2006年預(yù)測(cè)iPod即將消亡，在2007年表示iPhone不會(huì)取得成功，也曾在2012年預(yù)測(cè)稱，集成化的iPhone和iPad最終將敗給三星（Samsung）和谷歌（Google）的模塊化產(chǎn)品。 ????科技博客Stratechery的撰稿人本?湯普森在今年9月表示：“克里斯坦森的三個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)沒(méi)有一個(gè)正確。” ????近來(lái)，克里斯坦森遭受了不少筆誅口伐，而且不僅僅是在博客圈。今年6月，他的哈佛大學(xué)(Harvard University)同事吉爾?拉波爾在《紐約客》（The New Yorker）雜志上發(fā)表了長(zhǎng)篇檄文，猛烈批判克里斯坦森，文中還引用了克里斯坦森著作《創(chuàng)新者的窘境》（The Innovator’s Dilemma，1997年出版）和《創(chuàng)新者的解決之道》（The Innovator’s Solution，2003年出版）中的錯(cuò)誤和紕漏。 ????拉波爾是一位歷史學(xué)教授，對(duì)如何管理高科技公司并不在行，更不用說(shuō)研究相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的學(xué)術(shù)理論了，因此他的批評(píng)并未受到科技圈的廣泛關(guān)注。 ????然而最近，來(lái)自科技專家本?湯普森的文章《克雷?克里斯坦森錯(cuò)在哪里》、本?巴加林的《推翻顛覆性創(chuàng)新理論》、以及簡(jiǎn)?路易斯?加斯撰寫的文章《克雷?克里斯坦森是其自身魔鬼的擁護(hù)者》，也紛紛提出了批評(píng)。他們可就不容易被忽視了。 ????甚至連克里斯坦森最知名的擁護(hù)者霍雷斯?德迪歐，現(xiàn)在也站到了質(zhì)疑者的行列。 ????德迪歐一直以普及克里斯坦森的思想為己任，在他的博客Asymco、播客Critical Path和Airshow上竭力傳播顛覆性創(chuàng)新理論福音。他表示，這一理論從落魄者的崛起、大衛(wèi)擊敗歌利亞、弱者擊敗強(qiáng)者等等這些人類最古老的故事中汲取了敘事力量。 ????然而，上月在參加巴加林的播客Techpinions進(jìn)行的一個(gè)討論時(shí)，甚至連德迪歐也不得不承認(rèn)，克里斯坦森的理論必須有所調(diào)整，才能適應(yīng)科技消費(fèi)品市場(chǎng)。他表示：“一旦涉及到消費(fèi)者，情況就會(huì)有些變化。” ????湯普森、巴加林和德迪歐都承認(rèn)，問(wèn)題的根源在于，這套理論源于克里斯坦森對(duì)B2B市場(chǎng)（即企業(yè)對(duì)企業(yè)市場(chǎng)）所做的分析。在這個(gè)市場(chǎng)中，做出購(gòu)買決定的是企業(yè)管理者，而不是消費(fèi)者。企業(yè)管理者做出的理性決策往往是基于經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的核算，而非使用產(chǎn)品的體驗(yàn)。 ????消費(fèi)者也重視金錢，但他們同樣重視一系列其他因素——易用性、品牌忠誠(chéng)度，以及他們的朋友會(huì)使用什么產(chǎn)品。營(yíng)銷部門動(dòng)輒花費(fèi)數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元來(lái)了解促使消費(fèi)者做出不同購(gòu)買決定的細(xì)微差異。這是一個(gè)被深入研究的領(lǐng)域。然而，大部分科技公司對(duì)此還一無(wú)所知。 ????德迪歐表示：“蘋果的發(fā)現(xiàn)是：只要他們能掌握僅僅10%的消費(fèi)者行為學(xué)知識(shí)，并活學(xué)活用，他們就能生產(chǎn)出對(duì)普通大眾更具誘惑力的產(chǎn)品。” |
????He may have been right about disk drives, mechanical excavators and steel mills. But Clayton Christensen, whose theory of disruptive innovation underpins much of current business management thought, was wrong about Apple. ????Not just in 2006, when he foresaw the imminent demise of the iPod. Or in 2007, when he said that the iPhone would not succeed. Or in 2012, when he predicted that Apple’s integrated iPhones and iPads would succumb to Samsung’s and Google’s modular approach. ????“Christensen is going to go zero for three,” quipped Stratechery‘s Ben Thompson in September. ????Christensen has been taking his lumps lately, and not just in the blogosphere. In June he was attacked at length in The New Yorker by a fellow Harvard academic, Jill Lapore, who cataloged errors and oversights in his seminal texts: The Innovator’s Dilemma(1997) and The Innovator’s Solution (2003). ????Lapore was largely dismissed in tech circles as a history professor who knew little about managing high tech and less about the nature of academic theories. ????Not so easily dismissed are more recent critiques by tech experts like Ben Thompson (What Clay Christensen got wrong) or Ben Bajarin (Disrupting Disruption Theory) or Jean Louis Gassée (Clayton Christensen becomes his own devil’s advocate). ????Or, for that matter, Horace Dediu, one of Christensen’s most prominent defenders. ????Dediu has made a career of popularizing Christensen’s ideas, spreading the gospel of disruption in his Asymco blogs, his Critical Path podcasts and his Airshow padcasts. The theory, he says, draws its narrative strength from one of mankind’s oldest stories: The rise of the underdog. David and Goliath. The weak defeating the strong. ????Yet in a discussion on Bajarin’s Techpinions podcast last month, even Dediu had to admit that Christensen’s theory must be adapted to fit the market for consumer tech. “When it comes to consumers,” he says, “there are some twists to the plot.” ????The problem, Thompson, Bajarin and Dediu all agree, is that the theory emerged from an analysis of business-to-business markets where purchase decisions are made by business managers, not consumers. Business managers tend to make rational decisions that have more to do with dollars and cents than with the experience of using a product. ????Consumers care about dollars and cents too, but they also care about a host of other factors — things like ease of use, brand loyalty and what their friends are using. Marketing departments spend millions to understand the subtle differences that make consumers buy one product and not another. It’s a well-studied field. Most tech companies, however, know nothing about it. ????“What Apple figured out,” Dediu says, “is that if they learned just 10% of what is known about how consumers behave and applied some of that theory to their products, they could make them more desirable to average people.” |
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