刺激經濟：三個政府，一個思路
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????美國聯邦政府2009年推出的經濟刺激方案是否有效?值此方案推出五周年之際，兩黨的爭論如火如荼，但注定不會有什么結果。如果我們將這些爭論放到一邊，留意一下近期其他的一些報道，或許能了解到一些有用的信息，看清到底什么才能真正推動經濟發展。 ????華盛頓正在進行的爭論沒有意義，哪一方都不會做出讓步。共和黨人說，刺激方案（包括政府支出和減稅）顯然不起作用，實施滿五年后就業的美國人數量比刺激政策實施前還要低。民主黨人說，政策效果顯而易見，美國GDP的恢復速度快于其他很多同一時期陷入衰退的經濟體。哪一方都不肯承認對方的說法哪怕有一丁點的道理。 ????值得一提的是，另外三個政府也面臨同樣的挑戰——正在努力刺激亟需幫助的經濟。迄今為止，它們做得還不錯： ????“法國必須恢復經濟力，一刻也不能等，”法國總統弗朗西斯?奧朗德上個月曾經這樣表示。這是自然。法國經濟已經在歐洲墊底，表現如此之差，導致奧朗德已成為二戰以來支持率最低的法國總統。不過，這位曾在總統競選中承諾對百萬富翁加稅的社會黨人如今正在提議為企業減稅300億歐元。他力稱，這個舉措將推動法國經濟增長。 ????“什么都比不過零稅率，”紐約州州長安德魯?庫莫上月提議減稅20億美元為該州吸引和留住更多企業。一個兩黨委員會此前建議將制造企業的稅率從目前的5.9%減半。但為什么只是減半？身為共和黨人的庫莫希望完全取消這項稅，也就是降到不能再降的零，至少是針對紐約市以北的制造企業，因為近年來，這些企業一直在撤離紐約州。 ????“我們認為，近幾十年來征收較高且不斷增長的個人和企業稅率，導致了人口流失，稅基萎縮以及總體經濟下滑。”底特律剛剛公布的退出破產保護計劃也有這樣的表述。這個計劃在談到出路時同樣直率：“我們相信，降低一些所得稅和物業稅稅率 ...對于促進就業增長和擴大總稅基至關重要。”面對破產后處處需要錢的窘境，底特律的領導人們希望的是減稅，而不是加稅。 ????目的顯而易見，經驗再明確不過。當最終不得不面對無可逃避的經濟困境時，政府領導人們意識到企業不是挖之不盡的礦坑，而是需要培育的、活生生的植物。但愿他們能更加經常地意識到這一點，而不是只有等到大難臨頭的時候才想起來。（財富中文網） ???? |
????French president Fran?ois Hollande of the Socialist Party is now pushing a tax cut for business. ????The flourishing debate over the effectiveness of Washington's 2009 stimulus package, occasioned by the law's fifth anniversary, will not accomplish a single thing. But if we keep it in mind as we notice a few other news stories playing out just now, we might learn something useful about what really gets an economy going. ????The debate as conducted in Washington is pointless because neither side will budge from its predictable position. Republicans say the stimulus -- a mix of government spending and tax cuts -- obviously didn't work because, after five years, fewer Americans are employed than were employed when the stimulus was enacted. Democrats say it obviously worked because GDP recovered faster in the U.S. than it did in many other economies that were in recession at the same time. Neither side will ever acknowledge that the other might have a point. ????What's actually useful is to note what three other governments that are up against the same challenge -- trying to stimulate an economy that badly needs help -- are doing right now: ????"It is imperative that France restores the power of its economy. There is no time to lose," said President Fran?ois Hollande last month. That's for sure. France's economy is one of Europe's weakest, performing so badly that Hollande's approval rating is the lowest of any French president's since World War II. But this Socialist who campaigned for office promising tax increases on millionaires now proposes a 30-billion-euro tax cut for business. That, he argues forcefully, is what will make the economy grow. ????"You can't beat zero," said New York Governor Andrew Cuomo last month, proposing $2 billion of tax relief in an attempt to attract and keep more business in the state. A bipartisan commission had recommended cutting the tax rate on manufacturers, currently 5.9%, by about half. But why take half measures? Cuomo, a Democrat, wants to eliminate the tax entirely -- that is, make it an unbeatable zero -- at least for manufacturers north of New York City, who have been leaving the state for years. ????"The City believes that the imposition of comparatively high and ever-increasing individual and corporate tax rates, in recent decades, has contributed to the City's population loss, dwindling tax base, and overall economic decline." So states Detroit's just-released plan for exiting bankruptcy. The plan is equally blunt about the solution: "The City believes that lowering selected income and property tax rates ... is critical to ... fostering job growth and expanding the overall tax base." Faced with the dollars-and-cents demands of bankruptcy, Detroit's leaders want to tax less, not more. ????The theme is obvious, and the lesson is clear. When finally forced to confront inescapable economic trouble, government leaders realize that business is not a pit to be mined but a living plant to be nurtured. If only they could more often realize it before calamity looms. |
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