富士康只要一咳嗽，蘋果鐵定已感冒？
來源：Asymco.com
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????如果你覺得周二《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）刊登的洛萊恩?盧克的文章《蘋果承壓，鴻海尋求多樣化》（As Apple Feels Bite, Hon Hai Looks to Diversify）聽起來有些耳熟，可能是因為最近我們聽到了太多類似的論調。 ????過去三周，很多報道將一切都歸咎于蘋果（Apple）的發展失去了“動力”，無論是哈佛大學（Harvard）清盤數百股蘋果股票，還是夏普（Sharp）的復興計劃框架。（參見《商業通訊社的新語言癔癥》（The business wires' new verbal tic.）一文。） ????當然，人們都完全有理由這樣寫：蘋果經歷了異常長期的新品空檔期；蘋果利潤率已較歷史高位回調了不少；上個季度，蘋果出現了2003年以來首次盈利同比下滑，而且本季可能還會延續。 ????但蘋果最重要的iOS發貨量（如上圖顯示）仍然繼續保持著良好的增勢。 ????如果將下面這位未署名鴻海（Hon Hai）高管的話…… ????“我們的產能已擴大到這樣的規模，現有大品牌客戶提供的訂單增長又有限，我們需要積極擴大客戶群來推動產量增長。” ????……視為是特指蘋果（就像盧克在周二《華爾街日報》報道中所做的那樣），等于是忽視了鴻海或更為人所熟知的富士康（Foxconn）還有其他大品牌客戶這一事實，這些大客戶目前同樣處境困難。 ????以惠普（Hewlett-Packard）和戴爾（Dell）為例，這兩家Window系統個人電腦生產商將組裝工作分包給富士康。這部分業務怎么樣？請看下圖： |
????If something sounded familiar about Lorraine Luk's headline in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal -- As Apple Feels Bite, Hon Hai Looks to Diversify -- it may be because we've heard that tune a lot lately. ????Just in the past three weeks, journalists have attributed to Apple's (AAPL) loss of "steam" everything from Harvard's divestiture of a few hundred Apple shares to the structure of Sharp's survival plan. (See The business wires' new verbal tic.) ????To be sure, one can legitimately write that Apple has had an unusually long stretch without a product launch. Or that its profit margins have pulled back quite a bit from their historic highs. Or that its earnings fell year over year last quarter for the first time since 2003, and are likely to do it again this quarter. ????But Apple's all-important iOS shipments, as the chart above shows, are still growing nicely. ????So to interpret this quote from an unnamed Hon Hai executive ... ????"As our production capacity has grown to such a large scale and existing major-brand customers offer limited order growth, we need to actively expand our client base to help increase our manufacturing volume." ????... as referring specifically to Apple -- as Luk did in Monday's Journal -- is to ignore the fact that Hon Hai, better known as Foxconn, has other major-brand clients, and that most of them are hurting. ????Take Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Dell (DELL), two Window's PC vendors that subcontract their assembly work to Foxconn. How's that business doing? See chart below: |
來源：IDC
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