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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

富士康凍結招聘恐怕要怪蘋果

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年02月25日

蘋果(Apple)公司內部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數百萬用戶中已經有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經營該公司。
富士康今年罕見地凍結了招聘活動,引發業界大量猜測。原因或許真的在蘋果身上,不過不是因為此前報道的iPhone 5銷量不佳,而是因為蘋果和富士康迫于輿論的壓力,提高了工人的工資,壓縮了加班時間,富士康員工在春節后的返崗率大大高于往年。

????跌跌不休的蘋果(Apple)股票上周三再遭重創,當天下跌8.84美元,跌幅近2%。此前《金融時報》(Financial Times)曾有文章稱蘋果代工廠商富士康(Foxconn)凍結招聘是因為iPhone 5生產放緩。

????雖然富士康發言人言之鑿鑿地表示,凍結招聘與iPhone 5無關,但蘋果股價仍然絲毫沒有起色。

????對于富士康凍結招聘的原因,各位分析師迅速給出了其它解釋:

????? 9.7英寸iPad銷售不暢【富邦證券(Fubon Securities)分析師亞瑟?廖】

????? 惠普(Hewlett-Packard)PC銷量下滑【瑞銀(UBS)史蒂夫?密魯諾威科】

????? 富士康推行機器人技術【第一財經日報(CBN Daily)】

????? 蘋果將代工訂單轉移到其它廠商【商業內幕(Business Insider)尼古拉斯?卡爾森】

????? 春節長假后離崗的工人數量較少【加拿大皇家銀行(RBC)阿米特?德萊納里】

????最后一條解釋最有趣的一點是,它明確地把責任歸咎于蘋果。

????德萊納里表示,從往年看,中國工人在過完年后的離崗率高達20%至30%,他們因為工資太低和工作環境惡劣等原因而離開富士康。不過今年不大一樣,據他的線人透露,富士康工人的到崗率接近90%。

????難道這是因為富士康迫于蘋果和當地工會組織的壓力,把工資提了一倍多,同時縮減了加班時間?(財富中文網)

????譯者:項航

????Apple's (AAPL) battered shares took another hit Wednesday -- down $8.84, nearly 2%, for the day -- after the Financial Times attributed a hiring freeze at the Foxconn factories that assemble many of Apple's products to a slowdown in iPhone 5 production.

????The stock didn't recover, even after a Foxconn spokesman flatly denied that the freeze had anything to do with the iPhone 5.

????Several alternative explanations were quickly put forward:

????? A slowdown in 9.7-inch iPad sales (Fubon Securities analyst Arthur Liao)

????? A decline in Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) PC sales (UBS's Steve Milunovich)

????? A shift to robotic production by Foxconn (CBN Daily)

????? A shift by Apple to other manufacturers (Business Insider's Nicholas Carlson)

????? Fewer workers going AWOL after the Chinese New Year break (RBC's Amit Daryanani)

????What's interesting about that last explanation is that it puts the blame squarely back on Apple.

????Historically, according to Daryanani, 20%-30% of Chinese workers don't bother to come back after the holidays to factory jobs where the pay is low and working conditions harsh. This year, according to his sources, return rates may have been closer to 90%.

????Could that have anything to do with the fact that Foxconn, pressured by Apple and local workers rights groups, has more than doubled wages and cut overtime hours?

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