美國需要再來一場金融危機
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????我曾經期待在2012年糟糕的選舉結束后領導人們能開展理性的對話。結果我還是太天真了。民主黨人見事態不好就假裝接近共和黨人，但實際上他們沒有進行真正的對話。現在，面對利比亞班加西（Benghazi）使館遇襲、國稅局（IRS）不當審查保守團體和媒體竊聽這些丑聞，共和黨人甚至都懶得和顏悅色。 ????你可能會說，別這么激動。股指創新高、房價復蘇、企業利潤強勁，還有什么能引起危機呢？ ????首先，我們有大而不倒的銀行，它們仍依賴于短期融資市場，而這個市場有可能像2008和2009年那樣迅速冰封。一些人，包括我在《財富》（Fortune）雜志的同事希拉?貝爾，都認為現在的政府有能力處理這個問題。我尊重但不同意這一見解。 ????國債上限，據推測在9月前不會提高，也有可能轉變成災難。如果我們這次再度陷入危機邊緣，有可能引起美國國債持有國的恐慌，進而導致市場利率上漲過高、股價下跌，從而引發金融恐慌。 ????我不希望見到危機，我也希望我們所謂的聰明領導們在危機暴發前能振作。但我絕對不會指望他們能力挽狂瀾。這是他們的不幸，也是我們的不幸。（財富中文網） ????譯者：默默 |
????I had expected our leaders to have rational conversations after the poisonous 2012 elections were over. I was naive. The Democrats, scenting blood, pretended to reach out to Republicans, but really didn't. Now, smelling blood over Benghazi, the IRS, and media phone records, Republicans aren't even pretending to be playing nice. ????Calm down, you say. Stocks are at all-time highs, house prices have recovered, and corporate profits are strong. What could possibly cause a crisis? ????For starters, we still have too-big-to-fail banks that depend on short-term financial markets, which could dry up in an instant, as in 2008-09. Some, including my Fortune colleague Sheila Bair, think the government now has the tools to deal with this. I respectfully disagree. ????The debt-ceiling question, supposedly on hold until September, has disaster potential too. If we slip over the brink this time, it could spook foreign buyers, run interest rates way up, run stocks down, and spark a financial panic. ????I don't want to see a crisis, and I hope our alleged leaders, who aren't stupid, bestir themselves before one strikes. But I sure wouldn't count on it. Too bad for them. Too bad for us. |
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