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華爾街再現金融危機風險!

華爾街再現金融危機風險!

Nin-Hai Tseng 2012-04-23
華爾街的健忘是出了名的。新近出現的4個跡象顯示,風險已重返金融業。這讓人不禁懷疑,之前是否真的發生過金融危機。

????沒有人想重溫2007-2008年金融危機那段水深火熱的日子。美國最大的數家銀行競相爭取緊急救助,房地產市場崩潰,數百萬人失業。華爾街(Wall Street)最終獲救,小企業和平民百姓卻為此支付了高昂的代價。

????危機過后,為了避免另一場災難,美國通過了新的金融法規。一切似乎意味著人們已經汲取了教訓。但是,事實果真如此嗎?

????金融業如今已經從陷入困境的借款人帶來的巨額損失中恢復了元氣,又飄飄然起來。美國各大銀行在剔除最危險的資產、清理資產負債表之后,大多數都通過了年度壓力測試。投資者當然注意到了這一情況。今年到目前為止,標準普爾500指數(Standard & Poor's 500)的金融類成分股已經上漲了16%,高于總指數的漲幅(9%)。美國銀行(Bank of America) 的股價更是飆漲了59.3%,成為漲幅僅次于西爾斯百貨公司(Sears)的標準普爾500指數成分股。

????但是,與金融危機爆發前幾年那些臭名昭著的特征非常類似的風險似乎正緩慢回潮。美聯儲(the Federal Reserve)的寬松貨幣政策可能刺激了投資,在理想狀況下,這些投資又將反過來促進經濟增長。但代價是什么呢?

????以下四個跡象顯示,風險正在重返華爾街:

高風險借款人重新獲得貸款

????對于一些貸款人來說,麻煩纏身的借款人似乎已經不再令它們感到困擾。

????第一資本公司(Capital One)和通用金融公司(GM Financial )又開始引誘那些僅僅幾年前金融機構還避之唯恐不及的高風險借款人?!都~約時報》(The New York Times)最近報道稱:去年12月份,信用卡貸款人向信用受損的借款人發行了110萬張新卡,比上年增長了12.3%。

????我們可以從不同的角度來看待這一增長。首先,正如《紐約時報》所指出的,它對更宏觀層面的經濟是否有利值得懷疑。消費者是否已經做好了準備,承擔更沉重的債務?失業率依然高企。數百萬人背負的抵押貸款依然高于其房屋的現有價值。這些顯然都引發了道德問題。

????與此同時,它也反映出銀行現在正在適應新型的借款人。各大銀行逐漸意識到,鑒于這場金融危機甚至把信譽最好的借款人也逼到了喪失贖回權的境地,它們不可能永遠把那些帶有信用污點的人拒之門外。當然,發放抵押貸款時,銀行依然在執行嚴厲的放貸標準。但德勤咨詢公司(Deloitte)表示,對于貸款人來說,駁回“首次欠款人(first-time defaulter)”的貸款申請將是一個錯誤之舉——倘若不是因為受此輪經濟衰退的影響,他們原本可以一直保持良好的信用記錄。德勤在去年夏天發布的一份報告中建議:“首次欠款人群體可以成為金融機構一個獨特的創收機會?!?/p>

????德勤公司或許認為這個機會是“獨特的”,但各大銀行很有可能視其為“必需的”。畢竟,它們正在想方設法彌補因新的金融法規而喪失的數十億美元交易費收入。因此,它們把(收取相對較高的利率和滯納金)信用卡作為解決問題的辦法,我們實在不必感到驚訝。

?

????Nobody wants to relive the height of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The biggest banks scrambled for federal aid, the housing market crashed, and millions lost their jobs. Wall Street was saved, and Main Street paid dearly for it.

????In the wake of the crisis, new financial regulations were passed to help avoid another disaster. This might suggest Americans have learned their lessons. Or have we?

????The finance industry is starting to feel better about business again, having recovered from huge losses made to troubled borrowers. Most of America's largest banks passed their annual stress test after unloading their riskiest assets and cleaning up their balance sheets. And investors have certainly taken notice. So far this year, shares of financial companies listed on the Standard & Poor's 500 index have risen 16%, higher than the overall index's rise of 9%. Bank of America (BAC) stock, in particular, has rallied 59.3%, becoming S&P's second-biggest gainer next to Sears (SHLD).

????But similar risks that infamously defined the years leading up to the financial crisis appear to be slowly creeping back. The Federal Reserve's cheap money policy may have spurred investments, which in turn would ideally help the economy grow. But at what cost?

????Here are four signs that risk is back on Wall Street:

Risky borrowers get loan offers

????For some lenders, troubled borrowers no longer seem as troubled.

????Capital One (COF) and GM Financial are luring back riskier borrowers that financial institutions turned away only a few years ago, The New York Times recently reported. In December, credit card lenders issued 1.1 million new cards to borrowers with damaged credit, a 12.3% increase over the previous year.

????There are a few ways to look at the rise. For one, as the Times points out, it's questionable if it's even good for the broader economy. Are consumers even ready to take on more debt? Unemployment is high. Millions are still chained to mortgages worth more than their homes. This clearly raises ethical issues.

????Meanwhile, it also reflects banks responding to a new profile of borrowers. They've begun to realize they can't always turn down people with credit blemishes, given that the financial crisis has pushed even the most creditworthy borrowers into foreclosure. Of course, lending standards for mortgages remain tight, but the consultancy Deloitte has suggested that it would be a mistake for lenders to dismiss "first-time defaulters," who otherwise would be in good credit standing if it weren't for the recession. In a report released last summer, Deloitte recommended: "Targeting this segment of first-time defaulters could become a unique revenue opportunity for institutions."

????Deloitte might see it as "unique," but it's likely that banks just see it as necessary. After all, they're looking to make up billions of dollars in fees lost by new financial regulations. So it's really no surprise that credit cards, which charge relatively high interest rates and late fees, could be one answer.

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