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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

蘋果分析師熱議三星Galaxy S4

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年03月19日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司。
三星Galaxy S4粉墨登場,來勢洶洶。但大多數(shù)蘋果分析師都認為,這款產(chǎn)品只能稱得上是改進,而不能說是革命性的突破。它還不足以改變目前智能手機市場的競爭格局,蘋果仍將占據(jù)這個市場的主導地位。

????瑞士信貸集團(Credit Suisse)庫布林德?格切:Galaxy S4:一部令人印象深刻的手機。“我們認為,S4手機將推動三星在高端智能手機市場繼續(xù)增長,出貨量預計將從2012年的1.15億部增加到2013年的1.8億部,而三星的生產(chǎn)計劃則是2億部。結(jié)合蘋果的增長,我們?nèi)匀灰獜娬{(diào),高端智能手機市場將達到前所未有的規(guī)模,2013年年比增長34%,將達到約4億部。三星最新高端手機Galaxy S4的面世必將使競爭進一步加劇,同時還將帶來產(chǎn)品轉(zhuǎn)型,在短期內(nèi)將給蘋果帶來風險。而從長期來看,我們?nèi)哉J為,在高端智能手機市場持續(xù)增長的大背景下,憑借運營商擴張(我們預計將達到6,500萬)所帶來的增量機會和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)優(yōu)勢,iPhone手機仍屬于成長型業(yè)務(wù)(我們預計,2013年與2014年,iPhone手機出貨量將分別達到1.58億部和1.94億部,占全球總量的16%)。”

????投資公司Topeka布萊恩?懷特:這的確是一次進步,但卻不足以改變游戲規(guī)則。“S4在速度上要快于iPhone,但不論重量或是體積,S4均不如iPhone精致。近期,蘋果股票下跌時,許多分析師和媒體對蘋果落井下石,紛紛聲稱三星‘在創(chuàng)新上正在超越’蘋果。對此,我們非常震驚。有人或許認為三星終將在手機市場打敗蘋果。我們認為,這種觀點完全是無稽之談。拿三星與蘋果的智能手機市場份額進行對比,就像拿蘋果與橘子進行比較一樣,兩者完全沒有可比性。根據(jù)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)數(shù)據(jù)中心(IDC)提供的2012年第4季度的手機市場報告,三星手機出貨量年比增長了12.3%,而蘋果則增長了29.2%。”

????金融服務(wù)公司Stifel阿倫?雷克斯:三星提高了押在智能手機產(chǎn)品上的賭注。“我們認為,S4的屏幕、攝像頭、軟件和其他幾種獨特性能提高了押在智能手機產(chǎn)品上的賭注。iPhone 5與Galaxy S4參數(shù)對比如下:

????? iPhone 5的屏幕分辨率為1136 X 640像素,326 ppi。而S4的屏幕分辨率為1920 X 1080像素,441 ppi。

????? iPhone 5的屏幕為4寸,S4則為5寸屏。

????? iPhone使用1.3 GHz雙核處理器,S4則使用1.9 GHz四核或1.6GHz八核處理器。

????? iPhone攝像頭僅為800萬像素,S4則為1,300萬像素。

????? 最后,iPhone 5重3.95盎司,而S4重4.59盎司。”(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:劉進龍/汪皓

????Credit Suisse's Kulbinder Garcha: Galaxy S4: An impressive device. "We believe the S4 device will continue to drive growth for Samsung in the high-end of the smartphone market from ~115mn devices in 2012 to ~180mn devices in 2013 with build plans as high as 200mn units. Combining this with Apple's growth, we continue to highlight that the high-end of the smartphone market should grow to unprecedented levels, and will likely grow 34% yoy to nearly 400mn units in 2013... The addition of Galaxy S4 to Samsung's high-end portfolio certainly presents risks to Apple in the near term owing to increasing competition and product transition. Long term, we still believe iPhone remains a growth business (our iPhone estimates are 158mn/194mn in CY13/CY14, implying global share of 16%) driven by continued growth in the high-end of smartphone market, incremental opportunity from carrier expansion (we estimate 65mn) and ecosystem advantage."

????Topeka's Brian White: A Refresh, but NOT a Game Changer. "The S 4 is faster but still heavier, fatter and less refined than the iPhone 5... We are amazed by how analysts and the media have turned on Apple during the recent stock downdraft with statements that Samsung is "out-innovating" Apple. One would believe that Samsung is crushing Apple in the mobile phone market. We believe this is complete nonsense. We believe the smartphone market share comparison between Samsung and Apple is like comparing apples with oranges. When analyzing the mobile phone market in 4Q12 as reported by IDC, Samsung grew its mobile phone unit shipments by 12.3% YoY vs. 29.2% for Apple."

????Stifel's Aaron Rakers: Samsung Ups the Smartphone Ante. "We believe that the display, the camera, the software and several unique features ups the ante in the smartphone market... Comparing the iPhone 5 and Galaxy S4 specs:

????? The iPhone 5 has a screen resolution of 1136 X 640 pixels and 326 ppi. The S4 has a screen resolution of 1920 X 1080 pixels and 441 ppi.

????? The screen size of the iPhone 5 is 4 inches compared to 5 inches for the S4.

????? The iPhone uses a 1.3 GHz dual-core processor compared to a 1.9 GHz quad-core or 1.6 GHz octa-core processor for the S4.

????? The iPhone only has a 8 MP camera versus 13 MP for the S4.

????? Finally, the iPhone 5 weighs 3.95 ounces versus 4.59 ounces for the S4."

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