蘋果削減iPhone 5零部件訂單的三大猜想
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????過去幾天，至少已有五位分析師根據蘋果公司（Apple）削減2013年初iPhone 5訂單的報道，調低了蘋果公司股票的目標價，分別是：瑞銀（UBS）的史蒂夫·米洛諾維奇（從775美元降至700美元），花旗（Citi）的格倫·揚（從675美元降至575美元），Canaccord的邁克爾·沃基（從800美元降至750美元），瑞穗（Mizuho）的艾比·蘭姆巴(從750美元降至600美元)和太平洋皇冠證券公司（Pacific Crest）的安迪·哈格瑞弗(從645美元降至565美元)。 ????所有這五位分析師似乎都是基于這樣的假設，蘋果削減訂單是因為iPhone 5銷量不如預期——這種推斷有點站不住腳，看看蘋果公布的兩個iPhone 5銷售數據就知道了:9月份iPhone 5全球首發以及上周末中國首發時，銷量都刷新了紀錄。 ????那么，蘋果削減iPhone 5零部件訂單是另有其他原因嗎？我們聽到了兩種不同的說法： ????蘋果iPhone 5的產出率提高了。正如Business Insider的賈·亞羅表示：“可能是以前蘋果認為iPhone 5的生產難度很大，下的（零部件）訂單量較大。結果生產難度還可以，所以蘋果可以削減訂單了。” ????蘋果正在控制庫存，為6月份當季推出一款新的iPhone做準備。這是蘋果前首席執行官約翰·斯卡利傾向的說法。“我想，他們在產品周期上有一個很大的調整，”他告訴消費者新聞與財經電視頻道（CNBC）：“傳統上，蘋果的新品推出是每年一次；現在事實上是每年兩次。從供應鏈角度，這樣做極其復雜，但蘋果似乎做得不錯。因此，我想人們可能低估了目前蘋果經營狀況有多好，以及一旦蘋果適應了每年兩次新品推出后，該公司將取得的成功。” ????響應斯卡利的說法，Asymco的賀拉斯·德迪烏已收集了六條間接證據。在我看來，這些證據非常有說服力。請點擊查看《S代表著春天嗎？》 ????譯者：早稻米 |
????At least five analysts lowered their Apple (AAPL) price targets in the past few days based on reports that the company has reduced its iPhone 5 orders for early 2013:?UBS'?Steve Milunovich (to $700 from $775),?Citi's Glen Yeung ($575 from $675), Canaccord's T. Michael Walkley ($750 from $800), Mizuho's Abbey Lamba ($600 from $750) and Pacific Crest's Andy Hargreaves ($565 from $645). ????All five seem to be operating on the assumption that Apple cut its orders because the company is selling fewer iPhone 5s than expected -- a theory undercut somewhat by the only two things Apple has said about iPhone 5 sales: That they broke records?in September, when the device was first released, and?last weekend, when it launched in China. ????So are there other reasons Apple may have cut back on iPhone 5 parts orders? We've heard two competing theories: ????Apple is making the iPhone 5 more efficiently.?As?Business Insider's Jay Yarow put it: "Apple may have put in a bigger manufacturing order under the assumption that the iPhone 5 was going to be hard to make. Turns out it's not that hard to make, so Apple can cut its order." ????Apple is clearing the decks for a new iPhone in the June quarter.?This is the theory favored by former Apple CEO John Sculley. "I think they're going through a very significant change now in terms of product cycles," he?told CNBC. "Traditionally Apple introduces products once a year; now it's really introducing products twice a year. The complexity of that from a supply chain is immense, and Apple seems to be doing it well. So, I think that people are underestimating just how well Apple is run, and just how successful the company can be when it gets to that twice-a-year product introduction cycle." ????In support of Sculley's theory,?Asymco's Horace Dediu has collected half a dozen pieces of what he describes as circumstantial evidence. They seem pretty convincing to me. See?Does S stand for Spring? |
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