iPhone造就的新世界
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????在蘋果公司（Apple）的iPhone問題上，克雷?克里斯滕森這位顛覆性創新理論（disruption theory）之父曾犯下過十分著名的錯誤。五年前，他曾對一位前來采訪的記者斷言，iPhone獲得成功的幾率“極其有限”。 ????上個月，拉里薩?麥克法夸爾在刊于《紐約客》（The New Yorker）上的一篇專稿中寫道：“克里斯滕森是一位向來低調的學者，他把iPhone視作一部時髦的手機；后來他才認識到，這部手機對筆記本電腦同樣也具有顛覆作用?！?/p> ????本周一，著名博客Daring Fireball的作者約翰?格魯伯發表了一篇博文，慶祝五年前第一部iPhone正式面世。這篇文章的開頭恰恰是克里斯滕森的這樁軼事。 ????文中寫道，在低估iPhone的陣營中，克里斯滕森絕非孤家寡人。 ????曾幾何時，iPod的大獲成功讓幾乎所有人（包括本人在內）都誤以為，蘋果進軍手機市場后的故事也會大同小異。既然iPod是全球最好的便攜媒體播放器；那么，iPhone也完全有可能成為全世界最好的手機。 ????但事實并非如此。它堪稱世界上最好的便攜電腦。所謂的最好，不是說它最強勁，速度最快，或者說效率最高。實際上它連“復制粘貼”這樣的功能都不具備。之所以說它是最好的，是因為它總是不離左右，隨時待命，任何時候只需按下一個鍵就能開啟。而它帶來的顛覆性變革，不是說讓大家終于擁有了一部出色的手機，而是說，不管好壞，我們現在終于可以永遠電腦不離手，互聯網不離身了…… ????過去五年的情況表明，與其說蘋果公司顛覆了手機業，不如說它通過顛覆電腦業，“摧毀”了手機業。今天，手機已成為應用程序的化身，而不再是單純的電子設備。而那些在iPhone誕生之前靠銷售手機大獲成功的公司現在不是銷聲匿跡，就是行將就木。 ????最后，格魯伯總結道，凡此種種，都是拜iPhone所賜。 ????這是我所讀到的最好的周年紀念文章。 ????譯者：清遠 |
????Clay Christensen, the father of disruption theory, was famously wrong about Apple's (AAPL) iPhone, telling an interviewer five years ago that the probability of its success was "limited." ????"Being a low-end guy," Larissa MacFarquhar wrote in the New Yorker last month, "Christiansen saw it as a fancy cell phone; it was only later that he realized that it was also disruptive to laptops." ????Daring Fireball's John Gruber uses the Christensen incident as the starting point of an essay posted Monday to celebrate the release of the first iPhone five years ago. ????Christensen was not the only one, he writes, who underestimated the iPhone: ????The iPod's success fooled almost everyone (including me) into thinking that Apple's entry into the phone market would be similar. The iPod was the world's best portable media player; the "iPhone", thus, would likely be the world's best cell phone. ????But that's not what it was. It was the world's best portable computer. Best not in the sense of being the most powerful, or the fastest, or the most-efficient to use. The thing couldn't even do copy-and-paste. It was the best because it was always there, always on, always just a button-push away. The disruption was not that we now finally had a nice phone; it was that, for better or for worse, we would now never again be without a computer or the Internet... ????What's happened over the last five years shows not that Apple disrupted the phone handset industry, but rather that Apple destroyed the handset industry — by disrupting the computer industry. Today, cell phones are apps, not devices. The companies that were the most successful at selling cell phones pre-iPhone are now dead or dying. ????All this, Gruber concludes, because of the iPhone. ????It's the best anniversary piece I've read. |
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