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????蘋果公司或許正試圖最大限度地淡化谷歌對自身產品的影響力，不過投行派杰（Gene Munster）的分析師基尼?蒙斯特卻認為，這并不會給谷歌帶來多大的打擊。

????據報道，蘋果近日正準備在下一代iOS系統中預裝自家地圖，以取代當前默認的谷歌地圖。而谷歌也不甘示弱，在自家地圖中增添了3D模式作為回應。蒙斯特上周三在一封致客戶的信中表示，谷歌與蘋果的地圖大戰不大可能導致二者間的天平失衡。

????如果蘋果的確在iPhone和iPad中棄用了谷歌地圖，谷歌可能仍然不會放棄iOS這塊大蛋糕，它也許會把谷歌地圖變成一款獨立的應用，放在蘋果應用商店里供用戶下載。蒙斯特認為，如果真的是這樣，谷歌地圖可能會迅速超越蘋果應用商店里的其它免費谷歌應用（如搜索、Gmail、Google+、谷歌翻譯等）。

????谷歌已經明確表態，公司認為谷歌產品在移動設備上的存在具有重要戰略意義，盡管目前它所帶來的收入還相對較少。

????據蒙斯特的估算，2012年谷歌移動業務的毛收入大約在45億美元左右，其中的大頭（40億美元）來自搜索廣告收入，其余（5億美元）來自陳列式廣告。他認為，iOS很可能將繼續成為這筆收入的最大來源，即便不是最大來源，應該也相差不多。iOS為谷歌移動業務貢獻了約40%的收入（約16億美元）。扣除所謂的購置成本之后，谷歌手里還剩這些收入的一半，相當于2012年iOS貢獻了谷歌公司總收入的2%。

????總之，蒙斯特指出：“如果谷歌地圖不再是iOS的默認地圖應用，我們不認為這會對上述假設產生任何實質性的沖擊。”

????譯者：樸成奎

????Apple (AAPL) may be trying to minimize Google's (GOOG) presence on its mobile screens, but Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster doesn't expect the search giant to feel much pain.

????In a note to clients issued late Wednesday, Munster suggests that the looming map wars -- in which Apple is reportedly poised to replace Google Maps as iOS's default mapping app, and to which Google has responded by beefing up its 3D mapping imagery -- is not likely to tip the balance one way or the other.

????If Apple does drop Google Maps from the iPhone and iPad, Google will probably stick around, turning it into stand-alone app on the App Store. Munster believes it could quickly overtake Google's other free iOS apps (Search, Gmail, Google+, Translate).

????Google has made it clear that it views its presence on mobile devices as an important strategic beachhead, even if the revenue it brings in today is relatively small.

????Munster estimates that Google will generate about $4.5 billion in gross mobile revenue in 2012, the lion's share ($4 billion) from search ads and the rest ($500 million) from display. He believes that iOS is likely to remain the biggest or close to the biggest source of that revenue, generating roughly 40% of the total (or $1.6 billion). Assuming Google keeps half (after subtracting so-called acquisition costs), iOS would generate about 2% of Google's total revenue in 2012.

????Bottom line, according to Munster: "We do not expect any material impact to these assumptions if Google Maps were to no longer be the default mapping application on iOS."