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專欄 - Allan Sloan

誰是Facebook上市亂戰中的真正贏家?

Allan Sloan 2012年05月25日

艾倫·斯?。ˋllan Sloan)為《財富》雜志高級編輯。出生于紐約布魯克林,1966年畢業于布魯克林學院,次年畢業于哥倫比亞大學新聞學院研究生院。他是金融領域的資深記者,2008年以“"House of Junk”一文第七次獲得財經新聞界最高榮譽杰洛德-羅布獎(Gerald Loeb Award)。
社交網站Facebook號稱自己的使命是將全世界人民聯合起來。但事實上,這家公司混亂不堪的IPO只是讓少數的內部人士和金融機構撈到了好處。他們在上市之前的最后關頭拿到了重要信息,不僅沒有增持,反而大舉套現。

????馬克?扎克伯格聲稱,Facebook的使命是將人們聯系起來,并給予他們權力。而華爾街的真正使命是給予大人物權力和金錢。兩者的使命互相沖突。猜猜哪個會獲勝?當然是華爾街輕松勝出。這就是我們從Facebook首次公開募股的失敗中得到的教訓。

????這件事真的有點可笑,如果你喜歡金融黑色幽默的話。Facebook和以摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)為主的承銷商們激發了人們對這次新股發行的熱情。發行價區間最初為每股28至35美元,但最后被提高到了38美元。買家們都垂涎欲滴,有關這次新股發行的討論簡直震耳欲聾。

????然而,在最后關頭,據說有些大型投資者拿到了一份分析,稱Facebook的發展前景并非像較早前公告書中所描繪的那樣美好。因此,似乎這些大玩家都降低了對Facebook首次公開募股的買入力度,甚至干脆取消了下單。納斯達克上周五的交易亂象甚至也和這些最后關頭的活動有關。Facebook股票就是在那天首次亮相的。

????大人物的退出,再加上可購買股票數量的增加,使個人投資者可以購買到更多的Facebook股票。他們按照38美元的全額零售價買入,然后眼睜睜地看著股價大幅滑落。我撰寫本文時,Facebook的股價相比發行價已經下跌了16%,三天里的跌幅相當之大。

????當天取消IPO買單的大人物們現在有機會以30美元出頭、而不是38美元的價格買入Facebook股票。我敢肯定,從個人的角度來說,他們那天的行為完全合法。然而,懷揣著發財夢想的散戶們一度認為,自己能夠以發行價購買Facebook股票簡直是鴻運當頭。但現在股價卻下跌了6美元還多。即使他們沒有割肉減倉,但他們在上周五買入的時候,價格是38美元每股,而他們原本可以等到現在以每股低于32美元的價格買入。上市首日從公開市場上以40多美元購買這只股票的人更是虧大了。

????這次新股發行的走勢使誰成為了受益者?主要是在新股發行中套現的Facebook早期投資者。據最新文件顯示,從扎克伯格到微軟(Microsoft)再到各個風險投資基金的Facebook早期投資者在這次IPO發行中共出售了2.412億股,而該公司本身只發售了1.8億股。早期投資者出售的股票占到IPO交易股票的57%,這么大的比重實屬罕見。

????Facebook上市前幾周,我們發現有內部人士提供的股票不斷增加。按照定義來看,這些人都是大人物。5月3日提交的文件首次列出了具體數字。Facebook在文件中聲稱,內部人士將出售1.574億股。但他們實際上多出售了8,380萬股。而Facebook的股票發行量仍然保持在最初設定的水平上,也就是上文提到的1.8億股。

????When Mark Zuckerberg's stated mission to connect and empower people collides with Wall Street's actual mission, which is to empower and enrich the well-connected, guess which mission prevails? Wall Street's, hands down. That's the lesson we can take from the debacle of Facebook's initial public stock offering.

????It's really sort of funny, if you're into dark financial humor. Facebook (FB) and its underwriters, led by Morgan Stanley, whipped up enthusiasm for the offering, whose initial price range was $28 to $35 a share, but ultimately was increased to $38. Buyers were salivating. The buzz about the offering was deafening.

????Then, at the last-minute, some big investors were reportedly given access to an analysis saying that the company's prospects weren't quite as rosy as the picture painted in its early disclosure documents. So the big guys, it appears, cut back or even canceled their orders to buy shares in the offering. This late-in-the-game burst of activity may even have had something to do with the Nasdaq foul up that roiled trading last Friday, the day the stock debuted.

????The exit of the well-connected, combined with an increase in the number of shares being offered, left more shares available for individual investors, who paid the full retail price of $38. Then, they got to watch the stock's sickening slide. As I write this, Facebook is trading 16% below its initial offering price -- a pretty nasty three-day loss.

????The well-connected who canceled their IPO orders -- all of which, I'm sure, is perfectly legal on everyone's part -- have had a chance to buy stock in the low 30s rather than at $38. Retail investors who were dreaming of riches and figured they were lucky to be able to buy at the offering price have gotten bagged for more than $6 a share. Even though they may not have actually sold at a loss, they paid $38 Friday for stock they could have bought at less than $32 today. The numbers are even worse for people who bought shares in the open market at prices in the 40s on the first day of trading.

????Who benefited from the way the offering has played out? Primarily, the early Facebook shareholders who cashed out in the offering. According to the most recent available document, early Facebook investors ranging from Zuckerberg to Microsoft (MSFT) to various venture capital funds sold a total of 241.2 million shares in the offering, compared with only 180 million shares sold by the company itself. It's unusual to see early investors selling this big a piece -- 57% -- of the shares being peddled in an IPO.

????During the weeks that the Facebook offering was pending, we saw a steady increase in the number of shares being offered by insiders, all of whom by definition are well-connected. In its May 3 filing, the first with specific numbers, Facebook said insiders would sell 157.4 million shares. They wound up selling an additional 83.8 million shares -- the company's piece of the offering remained where it had been originally set, at the aforementioned 180 million shares.

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